Russo-Ukraine War Assessment: Week of 2 to 9 May — Victory Day Special

A rare look inside the Russian Black Sea Future Operations Planning Cell

So, I delayed this update for two reasons. First, the status of the Makarov was still unknown, despite the Ukrainian MoD claiming that they sunk it. Second, today was the much anticipated Victory Day Parade in Red Square, and the world has been holding its collective breath to see what, if any, announcement that Putin may make regarding his “special military operation” that now seems a lot more like a festering, sucking chest wound.

Well, we now know that the Makarov actually survived the Neptune missile strike that the Ukrainians launched against it, and the crew has switched up their utility uniforms to include brown pants. And Putin’s speech? Well, the reviews of his remarks were about as flaccid as parade of the 20 T14 Armatas in front of his review stand.

Overview

Here is the ISW assessment for 9 May 2022. Though the ISW report states that BTGs are not a good metric for assessing true Russian combat strength, it is interesting to note that the number of suspected active BTGs is around 94, down from 125 at the start of the war. This, of course, does not factor in the incredible losses that those 94 BTGs have suffered over the last three months, so the effective combat power of Russian forces in Ukraine is likely much lower.