Madagascar’s High-Stakes Presidential Election: A History of Rivals and Uncertain Future

Øyvind Grønn Madshus
WAU Madagascar
Published in
4 min readJul 27, 2023

As the year 2023 draws near, Madagascar finds itself on the brink of another pivotal moment in its political history. The country’s presidential election, scheduled for November 9th, looms large on the horizon, promising to be a defining moment for the nation’s future. At the heart of this high-stakes contest stand two formidable rivals: the incumbent president, Andry Rajoelina, and the former president, Marc Ravalomanana. The historical backdrop of their intense rivalry, coupled with the possibility of a multitude of candidates running for office, has set the stage for an election with potentially far-reaching consequences.

Madagascar’s History of Rivalry

The political landscape of Madagascar has been shaped significantly by the power struggle between Andry Rajoelina and Marc Ravalomanana. Both men have taken turns at the helm of the nation, leading to a tumultuous history characterized by coups and counter-coups.

Andry Rajoelina: A prominent figure in Malagasy politics, Rajoelina rose to power during the 2009 political crisis. Backed by the military, he led a movement against then-President Marc Ravalomanana, accusing him of mismanagement and authoritarianism. This eventually led to Rajoelina assuming the presidency in the aftermath of Ravalomanana’s ousting. Despite facing international criticism, Rajoelina managed to solidify his position as a significant political force in the country.

Marc Ravalomanana: As a successful entrepreneur-turned-politician, Ravalomanana first took office as the President of Madagascar in 2002. His tenure was marked by economic reforms and infrastructure development. However, his rule faced opposition from Andry Rajoelina and other political factions, culminating in the events of 2009, when he was forced to step down. Since then, Ravalomanana has remained a prominent figure and has made several attempts to regain power.

Mogens Engelund, CC BY-SA 3.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0>, via Wikimedia Commons

A History of Coups d’état

The bitter rivalry between Rajoelina and Ravalomanana has had a profound impact on Madagascar’s political stability, leading to instances of coup d’état and political upheaval.

Ravalomanana’s Coup d’état: Prior to Rajoelina’s rise to power, Marc Ravalomanana himself experienced a coup d’état in 2002. During that time, he successfully ousted then-President Didier Ratsiraka, leading to a change of government and Ravalomanana’s ascendancy.

Rajoelina’s Coup d’état: In 2009, Andry Rajoelina, then a prominent opposition leader, contested President Ravalomanana’s leadership, accusing him of authoritarian practices and corruption. The political crisis escalated, eventually leading to Rajoelina’s de facto takeover of power, with Ravalomanana being forced into exile.

The Uncertain Future

With the upcoming presidential election, Madagascar stands at a crossroads, and uncertainty looms over the nation’s political landscape. The possibility of up to 49 candidates vying for the presidency further complicates the situation, making the election outcome unpredictable.

Potential Scenarios: The presidential election could unfold in several ways. It might proceed peacefully, with a democratic transfer of power if the incumbent president is defeated. Alternatively, tensions could escalate, leading to protests and unrest if there are allegations of election irregularities.

Stability Concerns: Given the history of political turbulence and coup attempts, there are valid concerns about the stability of the country during this critical period. The potential for clashes between supporters of rival candidates could further exacerbate the situation.

Conclusion:

As Madagascar braces itself for the November 2023 presidential election, the nation finds itself at a crucial juncture in its political history. The contest between Andry Rajoelina and Marc Ravalomanana, two figures with a history of coups and counter-coups, adds an extra layer of complexity and uncertainty. While it remains uncertain what the outcome will be, one thing is clear — the choices made in this election will shape the future of Madagascar and its people for years to come.

Now, let’s shift our focus to the positive aspects of Madagascar as a travel destination during this election period:

Madagascar’s Commitment to Democracy and Safety for Travelers:

Despite the political rivalry between key candidates, Madagascar has made significant strides towards democratic governance and has maintained a commitment to peace and stability. Travelers can explore the country’s breathtaking landscapes and unique wildlife with confidence, as the government prioritizes the safety and security of its citizens and tourists alike.

Safe Travel Experiences and Local Resilience:

Madagascar’s appeal as a travel destination lies not only in its stunning landscapes but also in its warm and welcoming culture. The majority of tourist attractions and activities are located far from areas where demonstrations might occur. Madagascar’s population is known for its resilience and friendly demeanor, and during the election period, the spirit of hospitality remains unshaken, allowing tourists to forge meaningful connections with local communities and immerse themselves in the island’s rich cultural heritage.

Embracing Madagascar’s Vibrant Democracy:

As you embark on your journey to this extraordinary island, rest assured that Madagascar remains an enchanting and secure place to explore. Embrace its vibrant democracy and experience the genuine warmth of its people as you embark on an unforgettable adventure of a lifetime. Let the captivating beauty of Madagascar captivate your heart as you witness its thriving democracy in action, making it an even more memorable and enriching travel experience.

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