Theories

There are so many overconfident people in this world. They seem to have it all figured out. Economists are the worst of this glib bunch but they aren’t alone.

So many academic types claim to know. To have a theory about how these things work that confidently summarized why things are the way they are.

These fact-focused know-it-all’s study numbers and statistics. They use logic and reason. They argue with one another in technical language that the ordinary person can’t understand.

Medicine is an inexact science to say the least. Each time I’m in a doctor’s office or hospital I’m struck by the deep ordinary nature with which these folks operate. The “experts” in this field often flail to know what to do when the reality of illnesses show up in front of them. The limits of real life resoundingly humble them.

The markets are also humbling. Anyone who invests for a living must live with the knowledge they are wrong everyday about many things they believe and at the same time have the confidence to keep going. They must disagree with others. Then disagree with themselves.

Admitting mistakes and moving on might be the key attribute of great investing followed closely by sticking to your guns and sizing up when you have conviction.

There are many contradictions in life and perhaps this is just one of the more glaring ones.

Finding the proper balance between confidence and humility is something I struggle with. But I’m striving for that authentic balance.

Having the confidence to go all in but the humility to fold. The confidence to buy more, the humility to sell. The confidence to seek understanding and to work hard and to give it my all and the humility to pray.

DAL