Talking warming: A matter of degrees
Like many, I watched the climate talks in Glasgow anxiously for signs leaders would decide to stave off dire predictions for our planet. The agreed Glasgow Climate Pact is an important step, but it isn’t enough to prevent dangerous warming. I’ve been thinking about what more warming means.
We all know that global warming must be limited to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels to avert catastrophe. Saturday’s pact, signed by 197 countries, has kept the goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees within reach. But, as the UN Secretary General said, the temperature goal is now “on life support” and the pledges are “not enough”. Even if all nations keep their current emissions pledges to the letter, the world is on track for warming of 2.4–2.7 degrees by 2100.
The earth, our home, is already changing. The seas, the air, and the land are all heating up faster than at any time in the last 2,000 years. Human emissions have so far heated the planet by 1.1 degrees Celsius. And with no signs of slowing, we could hit 1.5 degrees of warming within the next five years. This year, we saw simultaneous deadly floods, droughts, wildfires and heat waves. These devastating events will become more frequent as the world warms.
Half a degree might not seem like much, but the science says there is a big difference between 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees of warming. Recently, I heard it compared to a healthy body temperature. At just 1 degree warmer, the world already has a slight fever. The higher temperatures climb; the sicker the planet gets.
Put simply, every fraction of a degree of warming condemns more of us to misery. At 1.5 degrees, we’ll see more regular deadly heat waves. We’ll see more extreme storms. We’ll see more wildfires, droughts, crop failures. Longer-term, the sea level will rise. Our coral reefs will be largely destroyed.
Unless we reverse course immediately, these impacts are coming, and soon. They will be devastating, particularly for vulnerable regions in the global south, among them smaller island nations. Wealthier countries must drastically ramp up their support for these communities. They must rapidly prepare for what’s to come.
If, or by current projections, when, we hit 2 degrees, the warping climate is expected to affect more of us, more often, with another 420 million people regularly exposed to extreme heat. Droughts are likely to last longer and there could be widespread food and water shortages.
Warming on this scale would affect all life on earth, from the Amazon to the ice caps. Habitats could shrink by 50% for a 1 in 5 insects and 1 in 7 plants. We’d lose 99% of our coral reefs. Rapid Artic melt would cause sea levels rise further, faster, with less time for coastal communities to adapt, or move.
Longer term, maps of projected sea level rise at 2 degrees predict a tragic deletion of cities currently home to tens of millions of people. The US could lose large swathes of New York, where I live, as well as Miami and New Orleans. Elsewhere, Bangkok, Amsterdam and most of Shanghai would be lost.
Above 2 degrees, predictions get hazier. We aren’t yet able to fully model all the interconnected factors affecting warming and life on a warming planet. But let’s be clear. Those projections of warming of up to 2.7 degrees put humanity on track to enter dangerous unknown territory.
Not uplifting, I know. But we communicators have to be clear about where we’re heading without descending into doomism. After all, these grim visions of the future based on scientific modelling can spark outrage as well as fear. Outrage that prompts much needed demands for radical change.
At the United Nations we won’t give up on curbing warming. After Glasgow, we’ll keep spreading science. We’ll keep bringing the world together to sharpen their ambitions, starting with the next climate talks to take place in Egypt next year. We’ll keep demanding urgent action to minimize the damage to our earth and protect the vulnerable. We still have the power to change our future. It’s never too late to take a different path.
*Unless otherwise stated, all predictions are taken from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.
