Five Reasons Why Leaders Never Say “Directionally Correct”
As data systems and information availability have become more ubiquitous within and across organizations, there has been a noticeable shift in what leaders are requiring from their data operations. Not long ago, correlation was a core requirement for moving forward on any data-driven decision. Correlation is now a thing of the past and many leaders are using “directionally correct”, a common consulting phrase, as its replacement.
Below are five reasons why leaders should never use the phrase “directionally correct”.
1. Leaders communicate clearly and with precision of language. “Directionally correct” has no agreed upon definition.
One definition of this phrase is: when even in the absence of correct data, “the analysis is correct in its broad conclusions.”(1) Another definition: it “refers to something that may not be an ultimate answer or solution, but it is headed in the right direction.”(2) These two definitions are quite different. Correlation and causality have consistent definitions. “Directionally correct” doesn’t. It is a lazy phrase with no real definition and it means different things to different people.
2. Leaders understand and use terms and phrases that produce desired outcomes. “Directionally correct” doesn’t even mean what people think it means.
Let me illustrate why “directionally correct” is not even directionally correct. First — variation. Let’s suppose that your team implemented a solution that drove the conversion rate up from 49% last month to 53% this month. Your solution was directionally correct. Not so fast. As just one issue with this assumption, what is the margin for error? If your error is +/- 5 percentage points, you might not be better off than last month. Second — averages. Before the catastrophic crash of the Concorde on July 25, 2000, the aircraft was statistically the safest of all active planes in the air. After the crash, it was statistically the least safe of all active planes, due mainly to the relatively low number of passengers carried and the low number of flights relative to other types of aircraft. Bottom line: directionally correct analysis is a lazy approach to data analysis and oftentimes points you in the wrong direction.
3. Leaders make good business decisions to improve business performance. Directionally correct decisions may or may not lead to good business outcomes.
You go to the doctor’s office and the doctor diagnoses you with pneumonia. She prescribes a medication and does not indicate a dosage. You exclaim, “Doctor, you forgot to include the dosage.” She says, “Don’t worry about it; get any dosage you want — the medication is the right one for pneumonia so it is directionally correct.” Since too small of a dosage will have little to no effect and too large of a dosage can have catastrophic consequences, the correct dosage is a critical part of the prescription. Directionally correct analyses do not have the power to provide complete prescriptions.
Yet another example of the perils of hasty directionally correct prescriptions is a skydiver that jumps out of a plane with no parachute. “Directionally correct” would suggest that all is well since his objective is to land on the ground.
4. Leaders understand that their words and actions influence culture. Using the phrase “directionally correct” degrades data culture by promoting incomplete data analysis over sufficient data analysis.
Every time a leader uses the phrase “directionally correct”, the whole company suffers. Directionally correct analysis introduces great risk and is reckless. It destroys data culture and teaches the company that leadership does not even value data. No doubt, there are many that go too far in the other direction, turning each data project into a doctoral dissertation. Great leaders avoid the extremes (directionally correct on one side and doctoral dissertation on the other) and collaborate with stakeholders to determine what “sufficient” means for each data project.
5. Leaders hold themselves and others accountable through data. Directionally correct analysis never provides sufficient explanatory power to hold any one accountable.
Imagine walking into your yearly review, where you will be requesting a promotion. You have listed out the following directionally correct statements: 1) Increased Revenue in FY2020, 2) Decreased customer churn in FY2020 and 3) Improved Customer Satisfaction in FY2020. Upon review, what questions might you expect from the reviewer? How much did you increase revenue by? What was your revenue target for FY2020? How did you perform compared to your peers? Directionally correct analysis lacks critical information to hold others accountable and using it demonstrates a complete disregard for accountability altogether.
Building a successful data strategy and culture that drives business performance requires real executive leadership and great executive leaders always avoid using the phrase “directionally correct.”
