How we knew Trump wouldn’t win Iowa
Before the December 15 GOP debate, we had published some research on Trump’s follower base.
And while every single poll was busy reporting on a massive lead for Donald Trump, we saw cracks in the window. We observed that most of Trump’s supporters fell into a group (40% of Republicans) that was typically politically disengaged and quite apathetic towards a lot of the issues prevailing. A group that gives into sensationalism, and when it matters, doesn’t come out to vote.
We could see the writing on the wall months ago. But the polls kept people busy.
So much so that I think I have a new analysis…apparently, if you’re a Trump supporter, you’re 1.75 times more likely to answer polls. Because clearly, the rest of the Republican base is busy working or spending time with their families or doing anything but answering these pollsters.
