Weekly Coronavirus Update: Tuesday, October 20, 2020
Happy Tuesday, everyone. Here’s the latest in Coronavirus-related research and news.
1) Up to this point, a very small number of people have been shown to be infected with Covid-19 more than once. A new peer-reviewed study published in medical journal The Lancet documents the case of a 25-year-old man from Nevada who is confirmed to have been infected twice. He first tested positive in April, then again in early June. He had two negative tests in May. Researchers were able to analyze the virus in each case of infection, and the two samples were genetically different, confirming that this was indeed a case of reinfection. The man’s second infection produced more severe symptoms than the first. The researchers concluded, “previous exposure to SARS-CoV-2 might not guarantee total immunity in all cases. All individuals, whether previously diagnosed with COVID-19 or not, should take identical precautions to avoid infection with SARS-CoV-2.” You can read the full study here: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30764-7/fulltext
2) How are your math skills? A study of 5,000 people from the UK, US, Ireland, Spain, and Mexico found that those with lower mathematical literacy were more likely to believe “fake news” about Covid-19. Additionally, those who believed fake news were less likely to follow public health guidance related to the virus and indicated that they were less willing to get vaccinated when a vaccine is available. The study said, “Across all countries surveyed, we find that higher trust in scientists and having higher numeracy skills were associated with lower susceptibility to coronavirus-related misinformation.” Additionally, the researchers concluded, “In summary, while belief in misinformation about COVID-19 is not held by a majority of people in any country that we examined, specific misinformation claims are consistently deemed reliable by a substantial segment of the public and pose a potential risk to public health.” You can read the full peer-reviewed study, published in Royal Society Open Science, here: https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.201199#d1e2628
3) We’re back to talking about blood type and Covid-19 susceptibility. Two peer-reviewed studies published last week in the journal Blood Advances examined the blood types of Covid-19 patients as well as the general public, and found that those with Type O blood had a lower risk of Covid-19 infection, severe outcomes, and organ complications from the virus if they were to get sick. Conversely, those with blood types A or AB were found to be correlated with increased risk of severe clinical outcomes. These two blood types were more likely to require mechanical ventilation or dialysis for kidney failure due to Covid-19. Those with blood types A or AB also had longer ICU hospital stays than blood types O or B, signalling a potentially greater Covid-19 severity level. You can read the first study here: https://ashpublications.org/bloodadvances/article/4/20/4990/463793/Reduced-prevalence-of-SARS-CoV-2-infection-in-ABO and the second study here: https://ashpublications.org/bloodadvances/article/4/20/4981/464437/The-association-of-ABO-blood-group-with-indices-of
4) Speaking of blood, a new blood test has been found to accurately predict which patients will develop severe cases of Covid-19. Examining a patient’s blood during their first four days of hospitalization, specifically two molecules in the blood known as IL-6 (pro-inflammatory) and IL-10 (anti-inflammatory), doctors can accurately predict the level of severity a patient’s Covid-19 will reach. Assigning a number known as the Dublin-Boston score to each patient based on their blood findings, the researchers concluded that this “could help determine when to escalate care, institute or remove mechanical ventilation, or drive considerations for therapies.” You can read the full-text of this peer-reviewed study in the journal EBio Medicine (published by The Lancet) here: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(20)30402-3/fulltext
5) You’ve probably heard the term “long Covid” which refers to people who experience symptoms months after becoming infected. New data from the British National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) reveals that long Covid may not be a single syndrome, but instead up to four different syndromes including post-viral fatigue, lasting organ damage, fluctuating symptoms around the body, and after-effects of intensive care such as depression, post-traumatic stress disorder, or struggling to speak or swallow. The lead author of the report, Dr. Elaine Maxwell, told British news outlet The Guardian, “We believe that the term long Covid is being used as a catch-all for more than one syndrome, possibly up to four, and that the lack of distinction between these syndromes may explain the challenges people are having in being believed and accessing services.” You can read the report here: https://evidence.nihr.ac.uk/themedreview/living-with-covid19/ and you can read the article from The Guardian here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/15/long-covid-what-we-know-so-far?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
6) Up to September 2020, the per capita death rate in the United States from Covid-19 was greater than 18 other high-income countries (e.g., Sweden, France, The Netherlands, Belgium, UK, Spain, etc.). In fact, after adjusting for population size, the overall deaths in the U.S. were over 85% higher than countries such as Germany, Denmark, and Israel, and were actually 29% higher than in Sweden, where social restrictions due to the pandemic were never implemented. On average, the U.S. deaths due to Covid-19 were 50% higher than all other countries in the study. The authors concluded that the findings “may have been a result of several factors, including weak public health infrastructure and a decentralized, inconsistent US response to the pandemic.” Published in the journal JAMA, the full study is available here: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771841
7) Some potentially encouraging news: a few small non-peer-reviewed studies (important disclaimer!) found that in some cases, Covid patients with lung damage caused by the virus displayed signs of recovery after intensive aftercare and exercise. One small study in France engaged 19 ICU patients in a pulmonary rehabilitation program after they were able to come off a ventilator. Over the course of the rehabilitation program, all patients returned to normal levels in terms of lung volume and capacity, and the researchers concluded, “Post Covid-19 pulmonary rehabilitation, the sooner and the longer, the better.” In another small study of 86 patients in Austria, researchers found that 88% of their sample had lung damage when discharged from the hospital, but 12 weeks later, only 56% still had damage. As always, more research on larger sample sizes is necessary, and peer review of this research is also important. The findings from the French study can be found here: https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/post-covid-19-lung-rehabilitation-research/ad0d593d5bcbd820/full.pdf The results of the Austrian study are included in this news article: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/18/health/Covid-lung-damage-recovery.html?name=styln-coronavirus®ion=TOP_BANNER&label=undefined&module=undefined&block=storyline_menu_recirc&action=click&pgtype=LegacyCollection&impression_id=7a736c12-12b4-11eb-8339-e70dbad4a714&variant=1_Show
8) Would you be willing to purposely be infected with the virus to earn a bit of money and speed up vaccine development? The British government has invested £33.6 million in studies that will “intentionally infect healthy young volunteers with Covid-19 to hasten the development of a vaccine” according to a news article published in The Guardian. This is known as a “challenge trial” and so far 2,500 people have already volunteered to take part, though a press release states that only about 90 participants will be needed. Participants must be healthy and between the ages of 18–30, and one article estimated that participants would be paid £4,000 for taking part in the trial. The study still needs to gain approval from regulators and an ethics committee. If given the green light, trials are expected to begin in January and conclude in May. You can read the British government’s press release here: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/expert-partnership-to-explore-and-establish-human-challenge-studies-of-covid-19-in-the-uk and the article from The Guardian here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/20/covid-firm-secures-10m-to-infect-young-volunteers-to-hasten-vaccine?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
9) Finally, your world update. The US hit nearly 70,000 new daily cases on Friday, returning to a level not seen since July. Yesterday the number of new cases in the US was 64,164, and over the past two weeks overall infections have increased by 34%. The Midwest is being hit particularly hard, with states such as North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Wisconsin, and Nebraska leading the way in rising cases. Cases are rising in 41 of the 50 US states. For my Indiana readers, the number of new cases in the Hoosier state hit an all-time high of 2,485 on Saturday, and over the past two weeks cases have increased by 64%. In terms of counties, my home county, Posey, is fourth worst in the state with a rate of 334 infections per 100,000 people, and neighboring Vanderburgh county is fifth worst at 320.
— In the UK, numbers also continue to rise, with 18,803 new cases yesterday and a two-week increase of 61% in cases. Deaths have risen by 131%. The government implemented a new three-tier system with restrictions for each level. London is currently in the “high” category, with the greatest restriction being a ban on mixing with people from other households in indoor settings.
— Elsewhere, Iran reported its highest number of new cases today with 5,039. Russia also hit its highest number of daily cases today with 16,319. The Philippines, however, recorded its lowest daily increase in four weeks with 1,640 new infections.
Sources:
US numbers: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
UK numbers: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/europe/united-kingdom-coronavirus-cases.html
World numbers: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/oct/20/coronavirus-live-news-who-says-failure-to-quarantine-behind-soaring-case-rises?page=with:block-5f8e9a6f8f087cbe55eaddf3#block-5f8e9a6f8f087cbe55eaddf3
That’s all for this week. Please stay safe — practice social distancing, wear a mask, ventilate indoor spaces with fresh air wherever possible, and close the toilet lid when you flush!
