Weekly Technical Report on Cryptocurrencies

6 August 2019

BTC/USD (CMP: 12210)

Exhibit 1: Daily Diagram of BTC USD

There is an old adage in Technical Analysis that says that a bull market does not obey resistances, it obeys only supports. And a bear market does not honour supports, it only obeys resistances. This is exactly why an analyst should follow support & resistances in reference to the trend and not without it.
This is exactly what we witnessed in the price action of Bitcoin over the past fortnight. Prices were no doubt in a primary uptrend since early April. But after creating the top above $13700 late June, BTC started retracing. The intermediate trend turned down and prices dipped as low as 9400. However, there was a strong support at this level (shown by horizontal line in exhibit 1) & that was honoured by the Primary uptrend. Demand emerged from this very regions and it ended the intermediate lower top series, turning the short term trend upward yet again.
What can we expect in near future in this counter? Well, the July top of 12500 is well within reach for this intermediate move. Next minor target could be 12800 & if it manages to go past that level, the Jun top of 13700 could well be within reach for this premier Crypto. However the journey may not be without interruption, but given the bullish undertone we will expect the support to be honoured where favourable reward to risk ratio could be found. As of now, the minor supports are at: 11550 & 11070 levels on daily chart.

XRP/USD (CMP: 0.32)
Exhibit 2: XRP daily Chart

The strength that we witness in Bitcoin is absolutely missing in Ripple. It has been an under-performer for quite sometime now and we have conveyed it earlier to the readers of this column. However, given the bullish environment of the Crypto-Currency pairs in general, Ripple have not broken the major support & in fact we can draw a nice little upward sloping trend-line on the daily chart of Ripple (Exhibit 2).
This small up-trending line does not warrant trading it from the long side but it will be sensible to wait for violation of the same to initiate a short position in this Crypto. Currently Ripple is trading at 0.32 regions, a break below 0.31 will bring more sell off & the potential target for Ripple in that case could well be the May low of 0.29.