Weekly Technical Views on Crypto Pairs
2 July 2019
BTC/USD (CMP: $10,100 in Bitfinex)
Diagram 1: Daily Chart of BTC
After the break out that occurred in April this year, Bitcoin (& in fact the entire crypto world) saw a huge upsurge that not only ended the dreaded bear market of 2019, but also put it in the orbit of a bull market. This changed the perspective of traders from an era of ‘sell-on-rise’ to ‘buy-on-decline’. The same rally also saw Bitcoin to conquer psychologically significant $10000 mark after many months.
Having said that, we also acknowledge the present pull back that this premier crypto is undergoing as of now. After a brief violation of $13000 mark previous week, BTC is now in a pull back mode on intermediate timeframe and threatening to break $10000 mark yet again, this time to the downside. So, what can we expect going forward in the next few trading sessions?
Diagram 1 shows the entire rise that BTC put up in recent past (three month period from April to June 2019). We have drawn Fibonacci retracement levels across these candles & come up with some important observations. Although the primary trend is still upward, but the important support of 38.2% coincides with $10000 regions & if this is broken, the odds of revising $8970 regions will increase (which is 50% retracement level of the April to Jun rise). This is in fact a very strong support region we are not expecting it to be broken at one go. However, we may also add that breaking of this level (8970) will negate the primary uptrend. On the other hand, if prices show consolation above 9000 regions & its downward momentum is dissipated, there is a strong probability that the next phase of primary uptrend will assert itself up & that will happen above $10550 mark.
Ripple/USD (CMP: 0.39in Poloniex)
Diagram 2: Daily Chart of Ripple
Ripple happens to be one of the relative under-performers in the crypto world & it has also shown wild volatility, especially in the recent past. These kinds of swings are not healthy from the perspective of uptrend.
In diagram 2 above, we observe a downward penetration of up-sloping trendline which is in fact the lower return line of a channel. It is needless to mention that it has further downside implication & until it manages to go past 0.43 (which is the nearest lower top & resistance for Ripple on daily chart), this weakness is likely to be extended, in which case, we see 0.37 as the potential target for this move. Below this level, Primary uptrend stands negated.
