Are Defensive Minded Head Coaches a Dying Breed in the NFL?
With the recent firings around the league, there may be evidence that this group is in danger of becoming extinct.
“Offense wins games, but defense wins championships.”
It’s the cliche heard with all sports, but more so when it comes to the NFL. The problem is, this old adage may not be the reality on the 21st century gridiron. A stout defense is helpful but it doesn’t guarantee a Super Bowl ring not to mention a postseason appearance. Football has evolved over the past decade and policy changes have tilted the balance in favor of the offensive side of the ball. In looking at the recent data and hiring/firing trends over the past few years, there may be evidence to suggest that defensive minded head coaches may a dying breed in the NFL.
At the beginning of the 2016 season, 17 of the 32 head coaches came from an offensive pedigree and of that group, ten of them finished the year with a winning record. Collectively, these coaches compiled a 138–131–2 record, good for 50.9% winning percentage. The 15 teams whose head coaches came from a non-offensive background, including John Harbaugh, finished the season with record of 116–122–2, which equates to a winning percentage of 48.3%, and of this group, only one-third of them were above .500. Translation, teams like New England and Oakland carried the load.
Like anything else, entries within a data set can skew the overall results, therefore it’s important to dig a little deeper with these numbers. For example, the offensive coaches included the win totals, or lack thereof, from Hugh Jackson and Chip Kelly, who inherited arguably the two worst rosters in the league and finished with a combined record of 3–29! It’s safe to assume that even a coaching legend couldn’t work miracles from that dealt hand. That being said, if you were to factor those two out of the equation, the other 15 coaches won at a rate of 56.5% (135–102–2).
How about those gurus with a defensive pedigree? There’s no doubt that the list includes some impressive names with Super Bowl championships on their resume, specifically Bill Belichick and Pete Carroll. Aside from those two, there are several ones from this list that have greatly benefitted from having a top tier quarterback. Jack Del Rio may have led Oakland to a 12–4 record, but much of the Raiders’ return to relevance was due to the breakout of MVP candidate, Derek Carr. If you recall, Del Rio had a losing record during his nine-year tenure in Jacksonville. Even with the Steelers, Mike Tomlin’s success could be questioned, as Pittsburgh has only won the AFC North in five of his ten seasons there with hands down the best quarterback in the division. If you omit the teams (New England, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Oakland, and Seattle) with a true franchise quarterback, the rest of the bunch on the list had a putrid winning percentage of 36.3% with a combined record of 58–101–1.
Since 2012, approximately seven head coaches have been hired on an annual basis. This past offseason, all seven hires came with an offensive background and more than half of them are not only experiencing success so far, but appear to be solid long-term solutions to lead their respective teams into the future. This list includes Adam Gase, Ben McAdoo, Dirk Koetter, and Mike Mularkey. Even Doug Pederson showed promise with Philadelphia despite their 7–9 record when you consider the Eagles were starting a rookie quarterback in arguably the NFL’s best division. The offseason before saw six of the seven hires come from a defensive mindset and coincidentally (or not) some of these coaches have long been fired (Jim Tomsula), recently dismissed (Rex Ryan), or find themselves on shaky ground (John Fox and Todd Bowles) moving into the future.
During this timespan,15 of the 36 coaches hired came with a defensive acumen, and already nine of them (including Jeff Fisher, Gus Bradley, and Ryan) are no longer employed. There’s a good chance that number balloons to thirteen at this time next year if Fox, Bowles, Chuck Pagano, and Mike Zimmer underachieve with their respective teams. Of the 21 offensive minded coaches, only eleven remain after the recent firing of Mike McCoy, the shocking dismissal of Chip Kelly, and the unexpected retirement of Gary Kubiak. A retention rate of 52% for the offensive guys is that much more impressive when you realize that over 85% from the other group could potentially be let go when the dust eventually settles a year from now.
This is not saying that a defensive minded head coach can’t be successful in the NFL, but to go all in on defense seems to be the equivalent to an NBA team building around a center and ignoring the importance of perimeter shooting in today’s era. This seems like an antiquated way thinking for an organization and any type of success seems unsustainable. The bottom line is, you must be willing to evolve the way Belichick and Carroll have done and have a strong offensive coordinator to lean on the way Dan Quinn can do in Atlanta.
Recent history suggests there will be at least seven vacancies to fill and to no surprise, two offensive coordinators, Kyle Shanahan (Atlanta) and Josh McDaniels (New England) are already the hottest names on the list of candidates. Even before Buffalo’s firing of Ryan, there was speculation that they wanted to replace him in-house with their offensive coordinator, Anthony Lynn. Jacksonville’s offensive coordinator turned interim head coach, Doug Marrone, is rumored to replace Sean Payton in New Orleans in the event the Saints deal their current head coach to Los Angeles. It’s also worth noting that the Rams plan on interviewing Washington’s offensive coordinator, Sean McVay, as well. Don’t dismiss the possibility of Jon Gruden or Jim Harbaugh returning to the NFL sidelines one day. It may not be this year, but as time goes by these two figure to have teams (perhaps Indianapolis) willing to pay any price.
The question then becomes, where are all of the defensive guys to fill these job vacancies? With the direct correlation between quarterback play and team success, it’s no wonder why organizations are opting to staff their teams with coaches who can maximize the competencies of the game’s most vital position. Just look how Tampa was in the think of the NFC playoff picture until the very end under first year head coach, Dirk Koetter, whereas last year they finished with a less than stellar record under Lovie Smith.
Heading into 2017, we could be looking at a league where roughly two-thirds of its head coaches are of the offensive mindset and a new list of seven names will find themselves on the hot seat if and when their teams stumble out of the gate. In a sport where the word “parity” is quite often heard, the disparity between the number of offensive and defensive head coaches seems likely to increase.
