Searching for the Franchise Quarterback and the Cautionary Tales of a Small Sample Size
Don’t believe the hype, when it comes to NFL QB, size does truly matter.
It was Week 5 during the 1993 NFL season and the Miami Dolphins had just lost their future Hall of Fame quarterback, Dan Marino, to a season ending injury against the Cleveland Browns. Coming on in relief was Scott Mitchell, a former 4th round draft pick out of the University of Utah, who led them to victory over those Browns on that day and push the Miami record to 4–1. The Miami backup would start the next four games, leading the Dolphins to a 3–1 record and doing so in impressive fashion, by averaging just over 245 yards and throwing six touchdowns with only two interceptions.
With a 7–2 record and in the midst of the AFC playoff hunt, Mitchell suffered a separated shoulder which sidelined him until the 14th game of the regular season. The Dolphins would lose those final three games upon his return to drop their overall record to 9–7 and be on the outside looking in during the postseason. Mitchell’s audition during that 1993 season resulted in a 3–4 record with an average of 237 yards per start with a total of 12 touchdowns and a rating of 84.2 in all of his appearances . It may have been a limited sample, but the quarterback who only threw eight passes during his first two seasons in the league had done enough to capture the attention of an organization — the Detroit Lions.
The Lions were coming off of a 10–6 year in which they won the NFC Central but lost during the Wild Card round to the Green Bay Packers. That February saw incumbent starter, Erik Kramer, sign with their division rivals, the Chicago Bears, and Detroit found themselves in the market for a new quarterback. Despite the limited sample, the Lions inked the former backup to a three-year, $11M contract, which was nearly $3M more than what Chicago gave Kramer. With fellow quarterbacks, Andre Ware and Rodney Peete, also departing via free agency, Detroit was making a full commitment to the big southpaw to lead an offense that also featured stars Barry Sanders and Herman Moore.
After a promising debut during the opening week of the 1994 season, in which he threw over 200 yards and three touchdowns in a victory over the Atlanta Falcons, Mitchell found himself struggling over the next several weeks. The prized free agent made only nine starts that season and the Lions’ record in those games was 4–5. The disappointing record was accompanied by a few alarming statistics such as a completion percentage south of fifty percent (48.4%) and a touchdown to interception ratio just below 1 to 1 (10 TD, 11 INT). Detroit did qualify for the postseason for a consecutive season, as veteran backup, Dave Kreig was able to lead them to a final record of 9–7.
The following year was more of what the Lions envisioned out of Mitchell when they signed him. He threw for more than 4,300 yards with 32 TD and only 12 INT, as he led them to a 10–6 record and a third consecutive playoff appearance, albeit another quick exit. With that success came more disappointment in 1996 as Mitchell’s performance regressed once again as 17 TD were matched by 17 INT and the Lions found themselves with a 4–10 record with their franchise quarterback as the starter.
Despite the up and down play (mostly down), the Lions front office decided to reupp with their franchise quarterback that offseason on a 4 year — $21M ($8M guaranteed) deal. Detroit found themselves back in the playoffs in 1997 but a putrid performance in the Wild Card round against Tampa Bay (10–25 for 78 yards) was an indication that Mitchell wasn’t the right guy to lead this organization to the upper echelon of the NFC. This became even more apparent in the early stages of the 1998 season when an 0–2 record and poor play sent Mitchell to the bench in favor of Charlie Batch. It would be the last time he threw a pass in the Motor City and after five seasons the Mitchell Era would be marked by a 27–30 record while posting an underwhelming quarterback rating of 79.2.
So why is the story of Scott Mitchell relevant 23 years later? Back in the early 1990s with free agency was in its earlier stages, Mitchell’s contract represented a lucrative investment. Just the previous year, Green Bay signed Reggie white to a four-year, $17M deal. It may have been a different era but little has changed in the NFL — the teams with the true franchise quarterbacks have the best chances of winning the Super Bowl. You either have one or you don’t, and if you’re one of the unfortunate teams without an elite signal caller, a sense of urgency and desperation to find one can set in, especially when other components of your roster are strong.
The Detroit Lions were left disappointed from their big spending on an unproven quarterback with a limited track record, but that didn’t prevent other teams from following the same path. Just four years after Mitchell’s initial deal, the Buffalo Bills not only traded a first and fourth round pick to Jacksonville for backup quarterback, Rob Johnson, but then signed him to a 5-year, $25M contract. Keep in mind that the former fourth round quarterback out of USC threw exactly seven passes in his first two seasons before getting a spot start in relief for an injured Mark Brunell. It may have only been one start, but Johnson was able to dazzle with his performance and seduce at least one NFL front office to go all in as him as the new face of the franchise.
If you recall, the Johnson tenure in Buffalo was filled disappointment, injuries, and an obvious quarterback controversy, as the team clearly performed better with Doug Flutie under center. The Bills did qualify for the playoffs during Johnson’s first two years there, but that was more due to the play of Flutie than his. When his time ended in Buffalo following the 2001 season, Bills fans were left to remember their “franchise quarterback” with a 9–17 record and failed expectations.
Which brings us to the present day. Fresh off their embarrassing postseason appearance to Kansas City in last year’s Wild Card round, Houston felt the missing piece that would elevate them to the likes of New England, Denver, Pittsburgh, etc. was the man under center. An intriguing candidate was on the market and Texans’ general manager, Rick Smith, signed Brock Osweiler to a 4 year $72M contract ($37M guaranteed in the first two years) to lead Houston forward.
Like Mitchell and Johnson before him, Osweiler had a limited resume before cashing in on his big deal. Prior to taking over for an injured Peyton Manning, the former second round pick from Arizona State threw 30 passes over three seasons. Now given a seven-start audition, Osweiler was able to keep the Broncos afloat by leading them to a 5–2 record, but in actuality his record was 5–3 when you consider the he played much of Denver’s Week 9 loss to Kansas City. Overall, the Denver backup averaged 260 yards with 10 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and a 86.4 rating. The numbers were respectable but perhaps what caught most observers’ attention was his victory over New England in a prime time matchup. Once again a small sample but enough to entice one front office and parlay it into a large payday.
Here we are 12 games into the 2016 season and if there was ever a case of buyer’s remorse, it has to be coming from the Houston’s front office. The Texans currently stand at 6–6 and in first place of the AFC South, however with the talent on both sides of the ball, this record is an underachievement and much, if not all, of the blame should fall on the shoulders of their gawky quarterback. Out of all NFL starters, Osweiler ranks worst in yards per attempt (5.8) and only ahead of Ryan Fitzpatrick in terms of rating (74.2). As for the metric, yards per attempt, his rate currently places among the likes of Blake Bortles and Blaine Gabbert. If throwing for 131 yards on 41 attempts against his former team in Week 7 wasn’t bad enough, Osweiler failed to crack the century mark last month in Jacksonville when he threw for 99 yards on 27 attempts.
With any big signing comes risk, but Houston’s offseason splash is proving to be another chapter in the cautionary tale of small samples for the game’s most vital position. Competent and/or superb play could be nothing more than fool’s gold, and with the NFL being a hard salary cap league, you just can’t whiff the way the Texans have with their high priced quarterback. The same was the case for Detroit with Mitchell, Buffalo with Johnson, and more recently for Arizona and Seattle with Kevin Kolb and Matt Flynnrespectively.
Each of these five organizations over the past two decades all had the same thing in common — they were in dire need to fill the most important void on the roster and were somewhat crazy enough to go all in on an unproven entity. It’s like the guy/girl who gets married after dating a few months because they feel the need, pressure, and desperation to get hitched. In the case of the Texans, they didn’t even meet Osweiler in person before tying the knot with the new face of their franchise. Talk about the football version of a mail-order bride.
Unfortunately for the Houston organization and its fans, they find themselves in the midst of a bad and costly marriage that can’t end soon enough. They say that those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. The Texans fell victim to this old adage this past offseason but the history of the NFL says they won’t be the last to be burned.
