A Basketball Obituary: The Death of the Traditional Power Forward
The modern era of pace and space basketball, pioneered by the dominant Golden State Warriors, has put an emphasis on versatility and shooting. From a purely analytics standpoint, an increased efficiency in three point shooting makes this method of scoring preferable to traditional post-ups and mid range jumpers. Three points is greater than two. However, the importance of spreading the court runs deeper than that; it creates wider driving lanes, frees the paint for dominant big men to thrive without double teams, and stresses the opposition to defend the entirety of the court.
Long gone are the days of two traditional big men anchored in the paint, skeptical to tiptoe out into the great unknown of the perimeter. Instead, we now live in a world in which Brook Lopez heaves bombs and Boogie Cousins leads the fastbreak offense. Even Hassan Whiteside felt bold enough to take a sneaky look from deep!
However, all the excitement that comes from frenetically paced games and Steph Curry three point barrages has also come at a price. When the Cavaliers announced at the start of the regular season that Kevin Love would start at center, its fate was all but confirmed. The power forward position has been sacrificed, no longer holding value in the modern game.
Though its name exists on the boxscore, the power forward position has been removed in favour of another wing player. Having two forwards with limited shooting range leaves teams struggling to keep pace with uptempo opposition. Defensively, slower and large frames are being replaced by athletic and switch-heavy players that can guard a variety of positions.
Players who were once categorized as a power forward are now facing two options: extend their shooting range to become a more perimeter-oriented player or assume the role of a small-ball center setting endless screens and being the link between shooters scattered across the floor.
Watching the Blazers-Clippers game on Thursday night highlighted the different way teams have eradicated the traditional power forward in order to enter into the pace and space era. Looking back at their respective lineups three years prior offers some perspective:
Portland Trailblazers
2014/15 Lineup vs. 2017/18 Lineup
Damian Lillard -> Damian Lillard
Nicolas Batum -> CJ McCollum
Wesley Mathews -> Maurice Harkless
LaMarcus Aldridge -> Al-Farouq Aminu
Robin Lopez -> Jusuf Nurkic
It was presumed that Portland’s unceremonious exit in the first round of the 2015 playoffs would spark a hefty rebuild in which the Blazers would tank their way towards another star to work alongside their young franchise cornerstone in Damian Lillard. General Manager Neil Olshey had other plans, successfully overhauling their roster and playing style without sacrificing a playoff berth in the following seasons.
Admittedly, the emergence of Lillard as an All-NBA talent played an integral role behind Portland’s recent success. However, the new personnel surrounding Dame has simultaneously lifted his play and modernized the offense as a whole.
Portland have replaced their traditional power forward, LaMarcus Aldridge who thrived off of post ups and mid-range pick and pops, with an extra wing player. Above, Al-Farouq Aminu’s ability to space the floor shows how much more deadly the Blazers offense has become. Possessing one of the best screeners in the league with Jusuf Nurkic, McCollum and Lillard are offered acres of spaces to drive into the lane with kick out options aplenty littered across the three point arc.
Thad Young’s unwillingness to leave Aminu on the perimeter leaves Lillard with endless space to torch his defender one on one. Aminu is shooting 52% from three and is on pace to take just under 300 shots from deep. In 2014/15, Aldridge took only 105 shots from three point range with a 35% success rate. Aminu is clearly not in the same bracket as Aldridge talent-wise, however his fit has been a pivotal factor in Portland scoring an electric 111.3 points per game.
Los Angeles Clippers
2014/15 Lineup vs. 2017/18 Lineup
Chris Paul -> Patrick Beverley
JJ Redick -> Austin Rivers
Matt Barnes -> Danilo Gallinari
Blake Griffin -> Blake Griffin
DeAndre Jordan -> DeAndre Jordan
With Chris Paul’s departure to Houston during the summer, questions arose as to how the Clippers would proceed without their future Hall of Famer. In response, the Clips doubled down on their frontcourt of DeAndre and Blake. Both players had been linchpins during the greatest stretch of Clippers’ history, but their fit always seemed to be peculiar. With DeAndre’s offensive skill set being limited to spectacular alley-oops and Blake playing second fiddle to the Chris Paul led offense, it was reasonable to question if this frontcourt was worthy of the hefty price tag that they commanded.
However, five games into the 2017/18 season has all but squashed this notion. Blake Griffin has been thrust into the role of Lebron James Lite- the positionless orchestrator of an offense that feasts off of mismatches. Griffin has always been an incredibly gifted player with a unique skillset, often assuming the playmaker role during Paul’s numerous injuries. Now entering the season as the alpha dog has freed up Griffin to become even more adventurous.
Griffin’s transition into an outside threat, both shooting and passing, has killed opposing defenses. Blake is now taking five less shots per game from two point range than in his 2014/15 season, substituting them with five more shots per game from three. Put a big man on him and Griffin will destroy them in the iso. Just look at the clip above. Blake’s three point percentage is hovering around 41 percent, while the degree of difficulty in these looks has increased exponentially.
Griffin is still willing to dip into the well of post up moves on occasion. With teams now only having one true center and supporting wings, Griffin bullies these wing defenders in the post. Griffin has always been an incredible facilitator out of the post and his supporting cast of shooters have feasted off of his laser passes outside. Having the versatile talent of Griffin has allowed the Clippers to transition into the uptempo pace and space era without sacrificing their frontcourt personnel.
The Stretch Five
The only ray of hope for the power forward of a bygone era is to work alongside a center who can pull the trigger from deep. Still, these forwards can only manage to find minutes if they expand their range and provide tremendous offensive rebounding ability to account for the center hanging around the outskirts of the court.
Centers such as Karl-Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porzingis, and Marc Gasol provide such opportunities. Each of these big men have been partnered with forwards who compliment their offensive attributes. Taj Gibson, JaMychal Green, and now Jarell Martin, have proven to be serviceable options for corner threes and provide rebounding energy for the Grizzlies and Wolves. For all the shade Kanter receives, he remains an absolute monster on the offensive glass, pulling in an absurd 5.3 offensive rebounds per game so far this season for the Knicks.
However, the existence of these players hinge solely upon the presence of the new-era centers who possess otherworldly talents from the outside. My mind was blown seeing Porzingis pop up out of pin down screens (ignore the Cavs putrid attempt at switching on defense) and shred defenses both inside and out.
Defensively, it is no longer viable to have two rim protectors and rebounders that struggle to venture outside of the paint defensively. Gibson and Green’s survival in the league has depended on their ability to defend wings and occasionally switch onto guards. Kanter on the other hand is a sieve on this end of the floor- hence why he starts on a team that is destined to win 20 games. Nevertheless, the modernized era of basketball has forced even the most traditional of power forwards to adapt their game.
The New Look Rebuild
The Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers, both mired in the basement of the Eastern Conference for years, have built their rosters to relish a playing style that ignores the presence of a power forward.
The Nets have only one true center in their rotation, Timofey Mosgov, and he is logging only 16 minutes per game. Trevor Booker is the only other player that even resembles a big man for Brooklyn- the rest of their lineup is a group of interchangeable wings and guards who heave threes at a dizzying rate.
With a defensive approach that equates to “lets just outscore our opponents”, the Nets are launching an incredible 33.4 threes per game this season. Compare that to their 2014/15 rate which sat at roughly 20 attempts and it is clear to see what style of basketball Brooklyn believes will bring them success.
Similarly, the young players that have managed to gain a foothold in the 76ers rotation are those with an outside shot. Robert Covington has the stalest green light in the league outside of Kyle Korver and is the clearest example of a wing disguised as a power forward. With veterans J.J Redick and Jerryd Bayless entering the fray, the 76ers starting lineup are shooting over 22 threes per game.
With generational talents in Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons each rebounding at an incredible rate, the need for a power forward is defunct. The Embiid-Simmons pick and roll is a devastating force on its own worthy of requiring help defense. Add in three shooters across the arc for Simmons to dish to at will and you have a recipe for offensive success.
If not yet extinct, the power forward position can be listed as critically endangered. Much like in the NFL where traditional every down backs who amass 25 carries a game have been eased out by scatbacks and receivers out of the backfield, power forwards are being replaced by wings and small-ball centers. The modern NBA values versatility over size and shooting over strength- power forwards that cannot adapt will suffer the consequences.
