FACT CHECK: President Trump’s claim of $50 trillion in U.S. oil and gas is wildly inflated
Shortly after taking office, the Trump administration released its “America First Energy Plan,” a detail-starved roadmap to increasing production of coal, oil and gas. The plan includes a claim that there are an “estimated $50 trillion in untapped shale, oil and natural gas reserves” in the United States.
An analysis by the conservative American Action Forum (AAF) — founded by former Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN) and former Richard Nixon staffer Fred Malek, and chaired by former CBO director Douglas Holtz-Eakin — shows how wildly inflated Trump’s claim is. Using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, AAF calculates the U.S. has $3.82 trillion in proved reserves of oil, gas and coal at current prices — 13 times less than Trump’s claim.
AAF writes: “When crafting policy, the U.S. government should not rely on potential revenue estimates that are not supported by official data. When citing such large figures for potential value, the federal government should ensure that they are carefully sourced, to avoid disseminating misleading or conflicting information.”
And yet, the Trump administration continues making fantastical claims that they will bring about an oil and gas renaissance by vastly expanding drilling on our public lands. However, a 2012 study by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found that only 30 percent of the undiscovered oil and gas on public lands lies beneath areas not already available for leasing. A recent analysis by the Washington Post finds there is not much overlap between oil and gas-rich geologic formations and national public lands.
Despite the rhetoric, the data shows that oil and gas companies have significant access to U.S. public lands. Between 2009 and 2015, the Bureau of Land Management offered, but did not receive bids for 22 million acres for drilling — an area the size of Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut and New Jersey combined. Additionally, oil and gas companies are sitting on more than 19 million acres of unused public land leases.
Far from the claims of a “war on oil,” oil and gas companies thrived under the Obama administration. Oil production increased nearly 60 percent on public lands between the last year of the George W. Bush administration and the last year of Barack Obama’s term, and natural gas production is at an all time high for the United States.
