Winning the West 2018
Trump Administration’s Public Lands Agenda Unpopular with Mountain West’s Growing “Outdoor Voting Bloc”
In 2016, we saw the rise of public lands and the outdoors as a wedge issue in several competitive races in the Mountain West.
Now, with a peaking voter backlash against efforts to drill and mine recklessly on public lands or shrink popular national monuments, we expect to see outdoor issues playing an even more decisive role in this year’s elections.
Our Winning the West 2018 poll [and poll slides], released yesterday, shows the influence of the Mountain West’s “Outdoor Voting Bloc”.
Large groups of persuadable voters in swing states like Arizona, Colorado, Montana, Nevada, and New Mexico support a balanced approach to managing conservation, recreation, and responsible energy development. They expect candidates for office to share that view. And, most importantly, they are motivated to vote on public lands issues.
That’s why candidates running for office in competitive races may want to take special notice of what voters think of the Trump administration’s public lands agenda — because it’s deeply unpopular in every state surveyed.
Overwhelmingly, 74 percent of voters — including a majority of Republicans, Democrats and independents — oppose reducing the size of Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante National Moments. 70 percent oppose opening public lands close to national parks and monuments for oil and gas drilling. 67 percent oppose increasing public land available for oil and gas development by reducing conservation efforts on behalf of potentially endangered wildlife, like the sage-grouse. 64 percent oppose rolling back environmental regulations on oil and gas development.
It’s no surprise then that Western voters give the Trump administration a 27 percent approval rating on handling public lands issues in our poll. Or that Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke’s approval rating is upside down in all five of the Western states we surveyed, including in his home state of Montana.
Instead of taking extreme — and extremely unpopular — positions on public lands, our poll results suggest candidates are wise to listen to voters who vote the outdoors.
Here’s what voters want to see:
Mountain West voters place a heightened importance on supporting the outdoor recreation economy. 81 percent of voters think outdoor recreation will be important to the future of their state’s economy. 80 percent believe the presence of public lands and the local outdoor recreation lifestyle are important to attracting good jobs and innovative companies to the state.
When it comes to energy development, 84 percent of voters — including a majority of Republicans, Democrats and independents — favor investments in the development of renewable energy sources like wind, solar, and geothermal. 55 percent oppose increasing oil and gas development on public lands. Where energy development does occur on public lands, voters want to see common sense safety protections. On public lands, strong majorities support requiring mining companies to pay taxpayers a royalty for extracting minerals (76 percent), increasing the royalties that companies pay to taxpayers for extracting oil, gas, and coal (72 percent), and requiring oil and gas companies to detect and repair natural gas leaks in drilling equipment (89 percent).
In the coming months it will be worth watching how candidates in competitive races for governor, senate and congress connect with voters by showing their support for public lands and access to the outdoors.
Stay tuned for more Winning the West news and updates in the coming weeks, including a deep look at just who makes up the persuadable “Outdoor Voting Bloc” and how candidates can reach them.
The Center for Western Priorities is available to provide briefings on the importance of a pro-public lands message to winning Western votes. To learn more, please go to: WinningTheWest2018.org
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