The Indian Commonwealth: India’s Secret Geopolitical Weapon
How India can harness the power of the Commonwealth to leverage its soft power and rival China’s trade dominance
India is sandwiched between belligerent Pakistan and burgeoning China. One of these two countries has nuclear weapons, covets large swaths of Indian territory, provides military aid to India’s enemies, and is investing heavily in industrial projects in the countries surrounding India. I’m not talking about Pakistan.
Over the last three decades, India has been asleep at the wheel while China has emerged as India’s chief geopolitical threat. China is a far more formidable foe than Pakistan. China’s GDP is nearly five times larger than India, its military spending three times larger, and its Navy over twice as large. Moreover, China is outflanking India with its signature Belt and Road initiative, which comprises major investments across Africa and Asia.
China’s Belt-and-Road initiative is nothing less than an attempt to reshape the world order. China has invested hundreds of billions of dollars across Asia and Africa to create a China-centric trade and infrastructure network stretching from China to South Asia, East Africa and Europe. Chinese-built railroads will take Chinese goods across Asia to Europe, and Chinese ships will dock at Chinese-funded and Chinese-built ports in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Sudan and Tanzania.
One of China’s goals is to make these countries economically dependent upon Chinese infrastructure and trade. Another is to bolster Chinese military relationships and provide China’s Navy with access to strategic ports. That’s why China has sold nearly $10 billion in advanced weaponry to Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Iran and Indonesia since 2008.
Illustrative Map of China’s Belt-and-Road Initiative Trade Routes
Though Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has criticized China’s Belt-and-Road initiative as an infringement upon national sovereignty, India has been unable to develop a coherent geopolitical strategy to counter China.
Without a strategy, India will soon be strangled by all of China’s belts and roads.
There is one way that India can cultivate its own allies and develop trade, cultural, and military relationships to rival China’s Belt-and-Road initiative. India can take leadership of the Commonwealth and turn it into a true trade-and-cultural exchange bloc.
The Commonwealth can be more than just a group of countries who play games together. It contains 53 countries across six continents, 20% of the world’s land mass and a third of its population. India already has tremendous soft power in these countries, starting with centuries-old Indian diaspora communities ranging from the Caribbean and North America to Africa, Southeast Asia, Australia, and the UK. These countries love Bollywood movies and Indian cuisine, and they share India’s common law legal system and democratic values. Business leaders across the Commonwealth look to India hoping to ride the wave of Indian economic growth, and political leaders yearn for India to be a strategic geopolitical partner against Chinese dominance.
India could not ask for a more custom-built group of allies in its hegemonic rivalry with China. Yet India has neglected these relationships. Indian trade with Commonwealth countries totaled just $127 billion in 2015, far less than China’s $600 billion. India sends tens of thousands of students each year to study in Canadian, British, and Australian universities, but takes in relatively few African and Southeast Asian students to study in Indian universities.
It is time for India to stand up and take charge of the Commonwealth. Here are four steps that India must take:
1) Educational Partnerships: Indian universities are among the best in the world, particularly in science, engineering, and management. The Indian government should develop special student exchange programs to encourage more students from Africa, Southeast Asia, and even the Americas, Australia and the UK to study at Indian universities. Academic ties are the first step in strengthening India’s trade and cultural ties with its Commonwealth allies.
2) Cultural Exchange: India should invest in cultural and tourism ties with Commonwealth nations. Most importantly, India should allow visa-free access to travelers from Commonwealth countries — particularly those from Africa, Asia, and the Caribbean. Many Africans already resent Chinese investment in their countries as a neocolonial takeover. Let them visit India and love it. At the same time, India should encourage its citizens to learn about Commonwealth countries. Instead of Bollywood movies being filmed in Europe, India should provide funding for movies to be filmed in countries like Kenya, South Africa, Singapore and New Zealand. This might dissipate some of the negative Indian stereotypes about countries in Africa and Southeast Asia.
3) Free Trade: Commonwealth countries are already looking to India for economic partnership to offset Chinese dominance. Yet while China invests in trade relationships, India continues to retain decades-old socialist barriers that limit trade. India will never be able to compete with China in the global economy until it removes these harmful barriers. One great start is India’s recent Duty-Free Tariff Preference (DFTP), which allows tariff-free imports from developing nations. India estimates that the DFTP can grow trade between India and Africa threefold, to $150 billion annually. India needs to build on the DFTP and encourage trade and investment across Southeast Asia, Australia and New Zealand, and the Americas. Such trade is mutually beneficial: when markets open up, goods and services flow in both directions.
4) Military Alliances: India has four chief military allies: Russia, NATO, Japan and Israel. All are opposed to Chinese geopolitical dominance. However, in focusing on relationships with these major military powers, India has neglected military ties with smaller, less powerful nations — those that China is rapidly developing ties with. China is building strategic ports across the Indian Ocean and selling tens of billions of dollars’ worth of advanced weaponry and fighter aircraft in Asia and Africa. The K-8 Karakorum jet trainer, made jointly by China and Pakistan, is now estimated to comprise 80% of all jet trainers in Africa. India cannot sit idly while this happens; it must invest in military-to-military relationships across Africa and Southeast Asia.
Non-alignment is dead. Either India will take a seat at the table or India will be on the menu.
To counter China’s Belt-and-Road attempt to dominate Asia and Africa, India must turn to the Commonwealth. In doing so, it will find ready allies who share a cultural and historical bond, the same legal system and a mutual distrust of China. Indian leadership of the Commonwealth will be beneficial to all: for India, it will bring stronger geopolitical partnerships and an opening of markets to Indian goods and services. For other Commonwealth nations, Indian leadership will bring an opportunity to ride India’s growth wave and build a strategic hedge against China.
The time has come for India to turn the old “British Commonwealth” of the 20th century into the “Indian Commonwealth” of the 21st century.
So, will the India please stand up?
Gaurav Sen is a JD/MBA candidate at The Wharton School and Penn Law School, University of Pennsylvania and board member of the Wharton India Economic Forum. All opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
