Politics and Disasters, What Could Go Wrong?
A peculiar thing happened in late August, early September of 2017. As Hurricane Irma, at the time the largest category five storm in the Atlantic devastated the US Territories of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, other parts of the US downplayed and dismissed the potential impacts.
A new study in Science Advances demonstrates that there is a measurable difference between the behaviors prior to the storm for those classified as likely Democratic voters and likely Republican voters. Their findings were clear, “Likely Trump-voting Florida residents were 10 to 11 percentage points less likely to evacuate Hurricane Irma than Clinton voters (34% versus 45%), a gap not present in prior hurricanes.” (1) The suspected cause of this is twofold: mistrust in scientific evidence and the politicization of storm warnings. This was most prominently displayed by Republican radio personality and Medal of Freedom recipient, Rush Limbaugh. As Hurricane Irma peaked as a category 5 hurricane and began to impact Hispaniola, Leeward Islands, and Puerto Rico, Limbaugh told his audience, “[T]here is a desire to advance this climate change agenda, and hurricanes are one of the fastest and best ways to do it… You have people in all of these government areas who believe man is causing climate change, and they’re hell-bent on proving it… these storms, once they actually hit, are never as strong as they’re reported.” (1)
They go on to show that some studies suggest that both Democrats and Republicans are more likely to believe information when it aligns with an individual’s partisan beliefs. Climate science has undeniably become an issue that some people elect not to believe. The politicization of climate science hasn’t occurred in a vacuum. It carries over into risk communication, emergency readiness, and disaster response in a way that endangers those who mistrust or discard the information they receive.
Two years after Irma in 2019, we once again saw a spectacular failure of risk communication to meet political objectives whenever NOAA rereleased a sharpied version of their Hurricane Dorian map after President Trump said that the storm would hit Alabama.
This year, the 2020 fire season has seen a record 3 million acres burned in California, and another million in Oregon (2). Unfortunately, we are seeing the real-time effects that misinformation and blatant conspiracy theories can play in response efforts.
One example has been the idea that Antifa (Anti-fascists) is not only causing the fires, but that they are using the evacuation orders as a way to break into houses, to loot, and to destroy property. This unfounded conspiracy theory has received enough widespread attention to compel the FBI to release a statement debunking the theory as utterly baseless (3).
Other examples include “reports” of suspected Black Lives Matter and Antifa shooting firefighters (4). There are examples of public servants and sheriff deputies reiterating thoroughly debunked conspiracy theories, and reports of vigilante groups setting up patrols and checkpoints in order to find Antifa (5 & 6). As a reminder, vigilantism is any activity that tries to enact a perceived justice, without the legal authority to do so.
These issues are beyond one talk show host- or one President. Occurring in tandem with misinformation efforts and conspiracy theories, the Republican party seems to be absent from any real conversations about climate change.
This year, the Republican National Committee convened without adopting a new party platform, an unusual step but the idea is that all priorities and policy positions remain the same from their 2016 platform. In one of the few parts that it does address the topic, the 2016 platform says, “Climate change is far from this nation’s most pressing national security issue. This is the triumph of extremism over common sense, and Congress must stop it.”(7) There seems to be an entrenched, and conscious effort to devalue science and any efforts to mitigate the safety, national security, and welfare of Americans.
This past month as President Trump sat down with officials from California he responded to climate concerns with simply “It will get cooler, you just watch.” (8) With no evidence of any significance to the contrary, this statement remains the closest thing that we have to an official GOP position on climate change. We can not improve risk mitigation strategies if we ignore the risks or pretend like they aren’t that bad. Denying the facts on the ground, and prediction models are getting people killed as they ignore evacuation orders. It promotes conspiracy theorists and thinking, and it continues to curb any efforts to curtail climate change through efforts like the Paris Climate Agreement.
Recommendations
The FBI’s statement on the matter says it all, “Conspiracy theories and misinformation take valuable resources away [sic] local fire and police agencies working around the clock to bring these fires under control. Please help our entire community by only sharing validated information from official sources.”(3) There is of course a requirement on everyone to continue to monitor our own actions, double-checking the information we share online. And this is only heightened whenever there is a disaster. But the responsibility doesn’t end at the individual. Just like disaster response doesn’t end with making an individual bug out bag. It requires management to effectively tackle it. Because of that, just like any other response effort- there is a public interest that that management is expertly handled, it is effective, responsible, data-driven, and transparent.
Simply put, partisan misinformation and climate science denial saps response efforts and readiness; since capabilities need to shift away from the response in order to address deadly misinformation. One of the reasons that this is so important is because state and local governments are already stretched thin with limited manpower, social distancing constraints, and little in their war chests due to Covid. Unfortunately, any type of funding or relief does not appear to be coming anytime soon as Congress shifts focus towards the Supreme Court vacancy instead of passing the next stimulus package (9).
So there is a bona fide need to address, and there are real constraints on the implementing state and local governments. How can we get better- where do we even begin? Well, Budweiser recently announced they were looking to hire a Chief Meme Officer, perhaps it is time for state and local governments to invest in one too. As we continue to react to the increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration of disasters as a result of climate change planners, decision-makers, and elected officials will continue to face misinformation- and the fallout of that misinformation. All will need to address those while simultaneously developing some innovative, multi-platform, and holistic communication strategies in order to reach the people in their communities. Memes won’t solve everything- but dedicating personnel to fighting deadly misinformation is a start.
Likewise, social media sites and tech giants like Facebook have a role to play in this as well. Facebook have made a noteworthy effort in the time of Covid-19 to address, prevent, and eliminate deadly misinformation on their platforms. Facebook in particular, however, is very outspoken against attempts to delete or flag any posts that have misinformation. Expanding the work they have done with Covid-19 fact-checking to other deadly misinformation could prove useful. However, even with public pressure, Facebook is slow to make these types of changes.
A federally funded grant program through FEMA could be one route to provide additional expertise, manpower, and financing to the state and local teams. Federal Agencies already have web pages dedicated to Covid-19 Rumor Control, why not expand this into funded positions that are trained through federal programs and located at the state and local EDM offices. These Rumor Control pages are more or less bulletin board style pages- that someone could find information if they are looking for it but doesn’t really go after misinformation. (10)
Any number of approaches, or compilation of approaches, could get us closer to a policy on climate change and how we will continue to face its effects. Just remember the mantra from FEMA, “…each dollar spent on mitigation saves an average four dollars in response.” (12) Now, more than ever, it is time to wisely invest that dollar in our future.
Sources:
Long, E. F., Chen, M. K., & Rohla, R. (2020). Political storms: Emergent partisan skepticism of hurricane risks. Science Advances, 6(37). doi:10.1126/sciadv.abb7906
Newburger, E. (2020, September 15). At least 33 dead as wildfires scorch millions of acres across Western U.S. — ‘It is apocalyptic’. Retrieved September 25, 2020, from https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/12/fires-in-oregon-california-and-washington-spread-death-toll-rises.html
FBI. (2020, September 11). FBI Releases Statement on Misinformation Related to Wildfires. Retrieved September 24, 2020, from https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/portland/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-statement-on-misinformation-related-to-wildfires
Sanders, K. (2020, September 13). PolitiFact — Fact-checking misinformation about firefighters, antifa in Portland. Retrieved September 24, 2020, from https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/sep/13/facebook-posts/fact-checking-misinformation-about-firefighters-an/
Meerah Powell | Kimberley Freda | Conrad Wilson. (2020, September 13). Clackamas County deputy placed on leave after sharing antifa wildfire rumors in online video. Retrieved September 24, 2020, from https://www.opb.org/article/2020/09/12/clackamas-county-antifa-rumor-sheriff-deputy-leave/
Sheriff, M. C. (2020, September 12). Sheriff Mike Reese issues a statement regarding illegal roadblocks and fire concerns in East Multnomah County. pic.twitter.com/WvmIavU39V. Retrieved September 24, 2020, from https://twitter.com/MultCoSO/status/1304917391986495488
Republican National Committee. (2020). RESOLUTION REGARDING THE REPUBLICAN PARTY PLATFORM. Retrieved September 24, 2020, from https://prod-cdn-static.gop.com/docs/Resolution_Platform_2020.pdf
Miller, B., & Jones, J. (2020, September 16). Analysis: Climate is not weather: Trump continues to get the two conflated. Retrieved September 24, 2020, from https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/15/weather/global-warming-vs-weather-trump/index.html
Rabouin, D. (2020, September 22). Wall Street fears stimulus is doomed. Retrieved September 24, 2020, from https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-stimulus-wall-street-outlook-d8f3e61c-0208-44bc-b091-50fdb9dd3e89.html
FEMA. (2020). Coronavirus Rumor Control. Retrieved September 24, 2020, from https://www.fema.gov/disasters/coronavirus/rumor-control
Facebook. (2020, September 15). Keeping People Safe and Informed About the Coronavirus. Retrieved September 25, 2020, from https://about.fb.com/news/2020/08/coronavirus/Facebook. (2020, September 15). Keeping People Safe and Informed About the Coronavirus. Retrieved September 25, 2020, from https://about.fb.com/news/2020/08/coronavirus/
Multihazard Mitigation Council. (2008). FEMA Fact Sheet. Retrieved September 24, 2020, from https://www.fema.gov/pdf/hazard/hurricane/2008/gustav/mitigations_value_factsheet2008.pdf
