Quickening the Countdown to Extinction for Canada Lynx
Last week the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) announced its recommendation to remove Endangered Species Act (ESA) protections for the threatened Canada lynx in the Lower 48 States. The announcement follows its release of the final Species Status Assessment, a report summarizing the latest science on the species and its threats. The report presents a perplexing case of spin-right-shoot-left, by demonstrating severe decline in the lynx population by the century’s end. Yet the FWS concludes that uncertainty around the impacts of climate change, paired with adequate regulation for habitat protection, are grounds for delisting the species from the ESA. This recommendation dodges the court order requiring the FWS to publish a recovery plan for the lynx, now 15 years overdue.
At a time when Canada lynx more than ever need the safeguards provided by the ESA due to melting snowpack and the effects of climate change, the FWS should put out a recovery plan, not a delisting recommendation. Although we think many national forest management plans — which were updated in 2007 and 2008 to conserve lynx — may better protect the species, the final Assessment contains no evidence that the lynx has recovered to an extent that populations in the Lower 48 will remain viable into the future. Experts predict that all lynx populations will decline through the century, with 5 of the 6 geographic units only 50% or less likely to persist by 2100. Scientists predict lynx habitat will shrink in all these areas, largely because of climate change. The only place where lynx have shown signs of a comeback is in Maine, but viable habitat is expected to shrink there too. Recovery of the lynx needs to continue to be a priority to ensure this beloved big-footed cat continues to roam our forests into the future.
Threats to the Lynx
The species’ most important requirements — snow, space, hares, and habitat connectivity — are threatened by climate change and various human activities. Increasing temperatures, snowfall reductions, earlier snowmelt, and fewer snow-covered days associated with climate change have serious negative implications for lynx as well as their prey, snowshoe hares. For example, less snow means more competition with other predators for prey — the lynx’s disproportionately large paws give it a strong competitive advantage over species like bobcats in the deep, fluffy snow it frequents. And the seasonal camouflage of snowshoe hares (white coats in winter and brown during snowless periods) may not be able to adapt quickly enough as the timing of seasons shifts. If their fur remains white when the snows melt early, the animals are exposed to increased predation, leading to a decline in the lynx’s prey base.
Human development and encroachment into habitat, some types of logging and winter recreation can negatively affect lynx as well. For example, snowmobiling in lynx habitat can disturb the animals and also compacts snow, enabling other predators to compete with lynx for food.
A new potential threat to lynx has emerged in the Rocky Mountains, especially the Southern Rockies. A spruce bark beetle outbreak has affected large swaths of habitat, causing mass tree mortality. Current data show that lynx continue to occupy these forests, but scientists are concerned about long-term impacts to the population.
Current Safeguards May Not be Enough
A significant part of the FWS’ argument that the lynx is no longer threatened hinges on habitat management regulations put into place on federal lands after the lynx was listed. The FWS determined that the lack of adequate habitat protections for lynx, especially on national forests, was the only reason why the species warranted federal protection. Because national forest management plans in the lynx’s range have been amended to afford the cats more protection, the FWS believes threats such as timber harvesting, vegetation management to reduce severe wildfire risk and recreational activities are solved.
Yet no government agency has evaluated whether the habitat regulations are effectively protecting lynx and conserving and enhancing habitat. No one knows if they are actually working. The recent Species Status Assessment “assume[s]” that agencies and private landowners would continue to protect lynx habitat after delisting, but this is questionable since the conservation of populations in the Lower 48 States would no longer be mandatory.
We challenge the recommendation of the five-year review to delist the Canada lynx, given the scientific evidence and risks laid out in the Species Status Assessment.
Science in the Assessment clearly concluded that lynx is “very unlikely” to persist in all population units by mid-century, and that half the populations will be extirpated by the end of the century. By 2100 — a future date commonly used by scientists when evaluating the effects of climate on species — most of the lynx population units in the Lower 48 have a 50% chance or lower of persisting (see above map). Despite expert confidence in likely population losses, and the recognition that the lynx is “highly sensitive and broadly exposed to the impacts of climate change,” the FWS is claiming scientific “uncertainty” as a reason for delisting the lynx, stating that the impacts of climate change on the lynx are too ambiguous at 2100.
The FWS’ recommendation to delist the lynx is short-sighted and will reverse two decades of management efforts meant to stem lynx and habitat losses. As a large-bodied, slow-reproducing species, the lynx requires a longer timeframe than a mere 32 years (present day to 2050, the year which was deemed the “foreseeable future” in the Assessment) for evaluating potential effects from climate change. By delisting the lynx without clear evidence of recovery, the FWS is simply restarting the countdown to the disappearance of the lynx from American forests.
We need a recovery plan, not a delisting.
If the FWS follows the recommendation of delisting, it will be side-stepping a federal judge’s order to create a recovery plan for the lynx. Worse still, they are bypassing the opportunity for a wider community of scientists and the public to contribute to defining lynx recovery. They’re taking advantage of the 15-year delay in writing a recovery plan for the lynx, and using the lack of recovery objectives to set their own standards for delisting the species. Input from scientists and the public is key to helping define what recovery looks like for any species, and the FWS should not make any delisting decision until we have all had a say on what constitutes recovery. The current science is showing the Canada lynx population in the Lower 48 States in a downslide, quite the contrary to a recovery that warrants delisting.
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Medium to hear the latest from our experts and sign up for our emails to take action and join us in our fight to protect wildlife.
