Grading the WCC’s non-conference schedules
College basketball’s season tips off — it does not kick off, as I hear far too many people say, this is not football — in less than two weeks’ time on Monday, November 6.
For a non-power conference like the WCC, performance in the non-conference portion of the season is critically important. It’s going to be even more important this season with the departure of BYU. Strong results before the start of league play will elevate the metrics for not just the team in question, but the rest of the teams in the league as well.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the non-conference schedules for all nine WCC teams. But first, let’s take a look at the league as a whole.
There are 133 games on the non-conference schedule for the league’s nine members. Of those, 75 (56.4%) will take place at home, 31 in neutral sites (23.3%) and 27 on the road (20.3%). Unfortunately, 12 of those games (9.0%) will come against non-D1 competition and therefore be completely meaningless as far as the NET and Selection Committee are concerned.
Now, let’s get to those grades. Oh, and this isn’t a math test, I’m grading more like it’s a persuasive essay, but with the caveat of also grading relative to ability. Which is why you’ll see two vastly different schedules receiving the same top grade.
Gonzaga: A-
Home: Yale, Eastern Oregon, Cal State Bakersfield, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Mississippi Valley State, Jackson State, №17 San Diego State
Neutral: №3 Purdue, №9 Tennessee/Syracuse, №1 Kansas/Chaminade/UCLA/№5 Marquette (Maui Invitational), №21 USC (Vegas), №6 UConn (Seattle)
Road: Washington, №16 Kentucky
This should be a solid A schedule, but it gets dinged for one game that Gonzaga should never schedule. That said, overall, it’s fantastic and well-balanced.
The home games are mostly yawners once again, but Yale is a heavy favorite in the Ivy League and San Diego State will be fun (and likely ranked).
Maui is absolutely stacked, and the Zags could return from the islands with back-to-back-to-back wins over top-10 teams (or it could go the other way!). The other two neutrals are good as well. I hate neutral site games, but at least Zag fans travel well to Seattle and Vegas.
Road at UW is always good, even when UW sucks (often), and the February trip to Lexington will be a good test, great for the resume, and a fun way to mix things up in the middle of league play.
But then they went out and scheduled Eastern Oregon, an NAIA team, for a regular season game. What’s worse is that they’re doing this again.
No program at Gonzaga’s level, or anywhere close to it, should ever waste a game on a non-D1 opponent. Especially if you’re going to schedule this crap and then just leave a slot open without a game. Lame. Maybe I’m being too harsh dropping them to an A- just for this one, essentially meaningless contest, but also I don’t care. This game sucks.
Santa Clara: A-
Home: Utah Tech, Saint Francis, Southeast Louisiana State, Mississippi Valley State, Menlo, Utah State, Yale
Neutral: Oregon, №24Alabama/Ohio State, New Mexico, Washington State, Duquesne
Road: Stanford, California, San Jose State
Will Santa Clara be good enough to make the NCAA Tournament this season? I wouldn’t bet on it, but if they are, their schedule certainly won’t hurt their chances. This is how an aggressive mid-major program needs to schedule.
Yes, there are some duds at home, but Yale and Utah State are solid teams. Yale’s №71 at KenPom to start the season. Santa Clara is coming off a pair of 20+ win, very strong seasons. You know their highest ranking on KenPom at any point in that run? 70th.
Speaking of KenPom, of the Broncos’ 15 non-conference games, eight fall in what he classifies as A or B tier competition (okay, technically it’s seven since the Bama/OSU game isn’t on there yet, but regardless of opponent it will be B tier at worst).
Aside from Alabama and maybe Oregon, none of the teams really jump off the page, but they will move the needle in Santa Clara’s favor in the NET. Getting Washington State in Phoenix, not Pullman, New Mexico in Vegas, not Albuquerque, and Duquesne in Vegas instead of Pittsburgh will level the playing field in the Broncos’ favor.
My only concern with the schedule is that I don’t think Santa Clara will be as good as Santa Clara was the past two seasons, and this gauntlet might be just a bit too tough to complete successfully. Though I will admit, I undervalued the Broncos entering those two seasons as well. Prove me wrong, Santa Clara. You’ve built the schedule to do it.
Saint Mary’s: B+
Home: Stanislaus State, New Mexico, Weber State, Davidson, Utah, Cleveland State, Middle Tennessee, Northern Kentucky, Missouri State, Kent State
Neutral: №17 San Diego State, Washington/Xavier, Boise State, UNLV
Road: Colorado State
There may be just one true road game on the slate, and I’d love to see a couple more, but this is nothing like those never-leave-California Saint Mary’s schedules of old.
The Gaels earned a 5 seed in back-to-back NCAA Tournaments, and their new scheduling philosophy has a lot to do with that (in addition to, ya know, being very good). Once again this season, Saint Mary’s grasp of how to schedule for the NET is reflected in where their opponents are picked in their leagues’ preseason polls.
San Diego State, Weber State, Middle Tennessee and Northern Kentucky all took the top spot in their respective leagues. Boise State came in second behind SDSU and New Mexico came in third right behind the two of them. Colorado State at fifth also projects as a top-half Mountain West team. The MAC poll isn’t out yet, but Kent State is third according to KenPom, and Cleveland State was pegged fourth in the Horizon.
Also, now that BYU’s gone I can say this without fear of reprisal from fans in Provo: Shout out Utah! The Utes are the first power conference team heading to Moraga in the regular season since Cal in 2018 and the first from outside the Bay Area since St. John’s in 2010.
San Francisco: B
Home: Bethesda, Saint Francis, Purdue Fort Wayne, New Orleans, Seattle, Northern Arizona, Fresno State, Mississippi Valley State
Neutral: Grand Canyon, South Carolina/DePaul, Minnesota, Utah State
Road: Boise State, Arizona State, Vanderbilt
There’s not much of note on the home slate, though it’s not the dumpster fire that Pacific put together. There are some stinkers, sure. Saint Francis — they’re not St. Francis (PA) anymore because St. Francis (NY) dropped from D1 — New Orleans and Purdue Fort Wayne could all finish sub-300, and Mississippi Valley State might just be the worst team in the sport. But Seattle could win the WAC, Fresno State’s decent too, and Northern Arizona looks … not awful.
The interesting part of the schedule is away from home, and it’s where the Dons have done a great job in recent years.
They will once again “host” a game at Chase Center like they did with Davidson two years ago. Davidson was №41 in the NET on Selection Sunday. Play that game on the Hilltop, it’s Quad 2. Play it at Chase Center? Quad 1. San Francisco was the last team announced (not final team in, however, but close) on the Selection Show.
Minnesota has the chance to be this year’s Davidson. And Utah State is pulling a similar trick by playing the Dons in Salt Lake City. I hate neutral site games, but if you’re going to do them, sensible locations and an eye for gaming the system is the way to do it.
Plus you’ve got some strong road games to balance out the weak home schedule. I wish the home slate was a bit stronger, but like I’ve said elsewhere, who that moves the needle wants to go into War Memorial? And considering the potential for (good) losses to pile up a bit away from home, scheduling a handful of home wins isn’t the worst thing in the world.
Portland: C+
Home: Long Beach State, Lewis & Clark, UC Riverside, Tennessee State, Willamette, Wyoming, Air Force
Neutral: Georgia Tech/UMass, TCU/Old Dominion/Nevada/Temple (Diamond Head Classic), Grand Canyon (Phoenix)
Road: Nevada, Portland State, North Dakota State, North Dakota, Hawaii
Does anything jump off the page here? Not really. But it’s Portland, it’s a mid-major program that was a dumpster fire just three years ago and is now working its way back into respectability.
A couple of years ago, Portland would have had no problem getting road games against good power conference teams (and they did), but now? After the college basketball world watched the Pilots hang right with UNC and Michigan State and work over Villanova in the PK85? Would you want to bring that risk into your gym?
The Diamond Head Classic is decent, though the start against Hawaii is rough. Nevada on the road is a quality opponent. And I like that the Pilots maintain their Rose City rivalries with Portland State, Willamette and Lewis & Clark (though I’d like it more if the latter two were D1).
Overall, there’s not a lot of meat on this bone, but like I said, would you want the Pilots coming into your gym if you were playing for an at-large?
LMU: C+
Home: Westcliff, Yale, Jackson State, UTEP, Central Arkansas, Detroit Mercy, Colorado State, Tarleton State
Neutral: Stephen F. Austin, Oakland/Drake, Akron/FIU/Marshall/Utah State (Cayman Islands Classic), UNLV, UC Santa Barbara
Road: Nevada
There is not a single team on here that will excite a casual college hoops fan, but that doesn’t mean it’s devoid of substance. Yale and Colorado State could easily wind up as Quad 2 games, and since they’re at Gersten Pavilion they could easily wind up as Quad 2 wins.
Speaking of Quad 2 games, there’s a very real chance the Lions pick up three in a row down in the Cayman Islands. SFA, Drake, Akron and Utah State have the look of teams floating right around that Q2/Q3 cut line for a neutral site game. Which is also where LMU projects to be this season. Which means there is a very real shot for three straight evenly matched games, on a neutral site. They’re toss ups, and the Lions have as good a shot as any team in that field. Plus, they’ve had some luck in the Caribbean lately, winning the past two tournaments they’ve played down there in recent seasons.
The one road game is kind of damaging, and neither UNLV nor UC Santa Barbara are good enough to make neutral site games worth it in my opinion. It’s too bad those won’t be played on campus, especially the UNLV game which will be played in the Vegas suburbs.
LMU is a program on the rise under Stan Johnson, but unless everything breaks the right way and they end up 5–0 in Quad 2 entering league play, this schedule doesn’t do much to help the Lions continue to climb. Without BYU around anymore, I’d like to see one or two more quality games to make up for the diminished league slate. Especially from a program like this.
Pepperdine: D+
Home: Concordia Irvine, Lafayette, LIU, UNLV, Idaho State, Cal State Fullerton, UC San Diego, William & Mary, Westcliff
Neutral: UC Irvine, Indiana State, New Mexico
Road: UC Davis, Colorado, Louisville
This was a tough one to grade. On one hand, it’s not terrible. On the other, I think Pepperdine will be.
The home slate isn’t pretty. UNLV, picked sixth in the MWC, is the only team that isn’t projected to be bad-to-flat-out-awful. Plus there are two non-D1 teams on the docket as well, which does absolutely nothing.
All three neutral site games are in Vegas, and all three are against teams that project to be much better than the Waves. Could they pull an upset, against Indiana State maybe? Sure. Not a good bet, even by reckless Vegas standards, though.
Then there are the road games, two of which I imagine Pepperdine will get a nice pile of cash for taking part in. Maybe the Waves pull a Bellarmine, Wright State, Appalachian State or Lipscomb and take down Louisville in Louisville. Those four teams did exactly that a season ago, and it led to a whopping zero postseason appearances between the four of them.
Trying to be objective about it, this isn’t a bad schedule. It is, however, thoroughly uninspiring. And that’s what Pepperdine’s been since Colbey Ross left. Which makes this schedule a good fit for where Pepperdine is as a program, I suppose. They say “C’s get degrees” which is why I couldn’t quite get myself to go with that letter here.
San Diego: D
Home: Sonoma State, Jackson State, Le Moyne, Navy, Northern Colorado, Arizona State, Portland State, South Dakota, Fresno State, Westcliff
Neutral: Arkansas State, Hawaii/UT Rio Grande Valley
Road: UC San Diego, Stanford, Utah State
Road trips to Stanford and Utah State, along with a home contest against Arizona State, are what keeps this from getting an F.
Aside from those three, I wouldn’t be surprised if every other game landed in Quad 4. Which raises a question for a team like San Diego. The Toreros probably won’t do much this season, they’re picked last after all. So, do you want to schedule your way into some wins early on to keep the wheels from falling off, for a while at least? That’s understandable.
This is a really young team, with nine freshmen to seven upperclassmen. It’s year two for Steve Lavin, after a decade out of the business. It’s still early days for the rebuilding effort. So again, I get why you wouldn’t want to run through a gauntlet. That said, like the team I did give a failing grade, winning Quad 4 games might help your team chemistry, but it does not help your metrics or by extension your league. It hurts your league. Especially when you’re a team like San Diego that will probably lose a good number of those Quad 4 games anyway.
Pacific: F
Home: Sam Houston State, Lamar, North Dakota, Le Moyne, Mississippi Valley State, Cal State Northridge, UC Davis, Stanislaus State, Cal State Maritime
Neutral:
Road: California, Nevada, Northern Arizona, Idaho, Fresno State, Cal State Fullerton
If you want to enter league play above .500 by like two games, this is how you build your schedule. Two top-100 KenPom teams (67 Nevada and 100 Fresno), five sub-300 KenPom teams, two non-D1 teams, and a whole lot of nothing.
Let’s say the Tigers manage to go 9–0 at home in non-con. Their best win in those games (UC Davis, probably) would likely be low end Quad 3 at best. It could easily slip into Quad 4, too. Everything else at home looks like Quad 4 and it’s not even close.
Nevada on the road could be Quad 1, could be Quad 2. Fresno is probably Quad 2, but it could slip to Quad 3. Cal could maybe climb to Quad 2, maybe. My best case scenario here is one Q1 game (Nevada), two Q2 (Fresno and Cal), one Q3 (UC Davis) and then 9 Q4 games plus two that straight up don’t matter (Stanislaus, Maritime).
Actually, it’s probably better that they have two non-D1 games. Better those than two more Q4 games that actually do count for something.
This is a flat out disaster and it will, no matter how many wins the Tigers manage against it, drag down the entire league.
