Is that Big 12 grass really greener?
It was only a matter of time before this article would be written. The WCC, and everyone around the WCC, knew it a decade ago when they accepted BYU as a member.
The WCC is a basketball-first conference, but the Cougars came here because football told them to and they’ll bolt as soon as football tells them to bolt.
Football is telling them to bolt, it seems, as the Big 12 is looking for anything it can grab on to to keep itself afloat, once again. The Athletic reported on Thursday that BYU was one of the four leading candidates being looked at by the Big 12 in this round of expansion, maybe even the leading candidate for whatever that’s worth.
This isn’t the first time there have been these rumblings, but this time feels different. The Big 12 is losing its two biggest brands in football (it’s not a power football conference without them) and, like I said, looking to grab anything to keep itself afloat. Football, after all, is the only thing that matters, even when you’re arguably the top basketball league in the sport. It sucks.
Before going any further, I should say it is in my self-interest that BYU stays in the WCC. Just as it appears it is in BYU’s self-interest that it follows the football money out of the WCC.
Also, I should acknowledge that the Big 12 as it is currently constructed, the Big 12 as it would be without Texas and Oklahoma (two of its top-four basketball brands), and the Big 12 without those two teams but with the four teams it is currently targeting (BYU, Cincinnati, UCF and Houston), is a better basketball league than the WCC. This is a move that is being made 99.999% for football, but it’s quite obvious that BYU’s basketball program won’t be hurt by it.
That said, this move has been analyzed almost entirely from two points of view: it’s good for the Big 12, and it’s good for BYU.
Is it, though, actually good for BYU? Again, it’s in my self-interest that they don’t make this move, so let me explain why I don’t see this as the no-brainer it’s being talked up to be.
Most obviously, the Big 12 is dying.
With Texas and Oklahoma leaving, the league will have lost fully 50% of its original members.
Colorado left for the Pac-12 in 2011. Nebraska went to the Big 10 that same year. Missouri and Texas A&M bolted a year later for the SEC, and in a few years time Texas and Oklahoma will follow them to college football’s gluttonous Goliath.
Largely, the past decade or so of realignment, in power conference football, can be split into two areas.
When the Catholic 7 said “screw football” and basically kicked football-focused schools out of the Big East, those schools found new homes in other leagues. The best of them landed in power conferences, while the rest formed a new group of five conference: the AAC.
This area of realignment has been the gobbling up of the old Big East, and again, the Big East wanted that to happen. As far as realignment goes, which is often cutthroat and unfortunate, this area was almost wholesome.
The other area of realignment has seen the best of the Big 12 gobbled up by other power conferences, and the Big 12 gobble up whatever it could from the group of five to replace them.
Unlike the Big East, the Big 12 was not trying to lose those football members. I’m pretty sure the Big 12 would rather have Colorado, Nebraska, Mizzou, A&M, Texas and Oklahoma than it would West Virginia, TCU, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF and BYU. No offense.
Of those teams, the only one you could make a case for as a power conference program when it was added is West Virginia. While all the other leagues have added legitimate power conference programs (with the exception of the Pac-12 bringing in Utah as a partner for Colorado), the Big 12 has been forced to survive on non-power conference additions. Everyone else is adding power conference teams, and the Big 12 isn’t.
If the league isn’t dying, it certainly isn’t keeping up.
Is that something BYU fans should be clamoring to be a part of? They seem to think so.
After decades of being snubbed by the power conferences during every single round of realignment, the Cougars seemed to say “screw it” and went independent. I loved the move. It was a middle finger to the power structure that BYU could be just fine without them. Now, a league in full-blown desperation mode is offering them the long-awaited Power Conference Status, and the Cougars can’t wait to bend the knee and join — so much for that defiant independent spirit.
It’s also fair to ask, and largely being ignored, just how long that golden ticket of Power Conference Status will be valid for Big 12 members.
Expansion of the College Football Playoff from four to 12 teams seemed assured just months ago. That would’ve given an independent BYU and a depleted Big 12 their best shot at the only thing that seems to matter besides money: a spot in the College Football Playoff (man, college football is really ruining everything).
If CFP expansion stalls out, which CBS Sports just yesterday reported it has, and stays at four teams instead of 12, there’s a very realistic chance that the Big 12 becomes a flyover state version of the Pac-12 and starts missing out far more often than not.
Take a look at the conference affiliations of the teams to have participated in the first seven College Football Playoffs:
SEC, Pac-12, ACC, Big Ten
ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12
SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12
ACC, Big 12, SEC, SEC
SEC, ACC, Notre Dame, Big 12
SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12
SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Notre Dame
The Big 12 has sent a representative to the CFP in four of its seven years, and all four of those representatives have been Oklahoma. Reminder: Oklahoma is leaving.
Would BYU have a better shot at a four-team playoff in the diminished Big 12 than it does as an independent? Maybe. If only because it’s never made the playoff as an independent. But, no team has made the playoff from the Big 12 besides Oklahoma, so who knows?
Also, it’s worth remembering that the last time a power conference got caught up in a football-focused arms race and relied on non-power conference teams to fill out its ranks, that conference imploded and became the American Athletic Conference. It is now a conference so desperate to be noticed that it uses #AmericanPow6r as its official hashtag. Yes, that is the word powgr, which is not a word, with a six instead of a g, because it’s a play on Power Six, as in there are six power conferences and the AAC is one.
Except, there aren’t and it isn’t. There are five, and there might be four or three soon enough because the Big 12 is following the proto-AAC blueprint to a tee.
There are things I’m not mentioning here that are clearly important. Specifically, money. BYU currently has a fantastic TV deal with ESPN. They just extended it last year, too. Would they get a better deal (and more money) in the Big 12. Honestly, I don’t know. One thing they would certainly get is more home games against Big 12 teams, and more road games against Big 12 teams. That would mean they wouldn’t need to host Idaho State or travel to Georgia Southern in November, as they will do this season.
But, they also have seven power conference teams on their schedule for this season, plus Boise State and in-state rival Utah State. I’m not sure the depleted Big 12 gets you much better than that. A little maybe, but not a lot.
It would be one thing if Texas and Oklahoma were staying put and the Big 12 was looking to add BYU and the other teams. That would be the Big 12 strengthening itself and securing its foundation for the long term. Instead, the Big 12’s foundation is cracked, the conference is weak, and it’s trying to patch things up in the short term.
Do you really want to be a part of that? Do you really want to trade what you have now for an uncertain future?
Almost everything I’ve read, heard, seen, whatever, almost all of it from Cougar fans leads me to think they do want to be a part of that. Which is a shame. I truly thought the Cougars were poised to become a two-sport Gonzaga of sorts. They’re a power conference program in every way, they just don’t play in a power conference. They’re capable of winning big in football and basketball from outside of the power structure. They’re capable of raking in big money outside of the power structure. Are those not the two things that matter most? Not just in the short term either. That ESPN deal, extended just last year, would be nearly 20 years old by the time it comes up for renegotiation again.
You tell me, is this version of the Big 12 going to have a two decade lifespan?
