Ranking the WCC’s Non-Conference Schedules
All that stands between the WCC and an unblemished, undefeated non-conference season are 142 games. Let’s look at the slate of games the league’s ten teams have put together for the out of conference portion of the season.
By and large these are good to great schedules. There are two bad ones, but they’re not laughably embarrassing. There’s nothing like the Saint Mary’s schedules of old which saw the Gaels try to build an at-large resume by staying within 20 minutes of Moraga. Every team with reasonable postseason expectations (NCAA, NIT or CBI — screw the CIT, as I wrote earlier this year) has built a schedule that, should they perform well against it, would be part of a respectable resume.
First, some numbers.
Total Games: 142 (+5 preseason exhibitions)
Home Games: 78 (55%)
Road Games: 32 (23%)
Neutral Games: 32 (23%)
Non-D1 Games: 10 (7%) (11 if SMC draws Chaminade in the Maui Invitational second round)
Now, the grades.
F
Pacific, San Diego… what are you doing?
There isn’t a single team on either schedule that is expected to be at-large quality this season. But, neither of them are expected to be at-large quality, or even postseason quality, this season. So, whatever, right? Can’t really criticize them for that, can you?
But, you can criticize them for each scheduling two non-D1 regular season games. Pacific’s kind of off the hook because one of its such games is against Hawaii-Hilo at an event in Hawaii, but San Diego has no excuses. The Toreros intentionally scheduled both of their non-D1 games.
When the WCC made a handful of changes in 2018, most notably to the conference and conference tournament schedules, they also put a cap on the number of non-D1 games that can be played per team, per season. They put that cap at two — which was necessary, because Portland played three such games that very season. Why the cap? Because playing non-D1 games is detrimental to the team and the league. Why? Because those games count in the win or loss column, and in the stat sheet, but not in the eyes of the all-important metrics that the NCAA Tournament selection committee values most. In fact, the committee completely ignores those games all together. They count, but not where it matters.
Scheduling three was unacceptable in 2018. Scheduling two should be in 2021. I know scheduling at the mid-major level can be tough, but that isn’t an excuse to schedule more than one meaningless game.
The only redeeming quality here is that both teams have a real opportunity to enter WCC play at or above .500, and that counts for something. These would have a D- grade if it weren’t for the two non-D1 games.
D+
I expect Pepperdine and Portland to struggle on a similar level to Pacific and San Diego this season, and both Pepperdine and Portland also have similarly unimpressive schedules. But, neither the Pilots nor Waves have more than one non-D1 game on their schedule and, more importantly, both are scheduled to play multiple good teams.
They’re both well positioned to enter WCC play around or above .500, but that’s a double-edged sword. There are more home games than road games — a WCC requirement — but other than Grand Canyon at Pepperdine, those home games don’t move the needle. The Pilots and Waves should be able to feast on inferior competition at home, but they’ve also got a lot of chances to pick up awful losses if they stumble.
The best case scenario for these two teams is a ton of largely empty calorie wins and an upset over Oregon in Eugene. Unless every team they face turns out to be an overachiever, there’s no way to build an at-large resume with these schedules. Which is probably fine, since these two teams are likely headed for a bottom-half finish in the WCC.
C-
I see six teams with reasonable postseason aspirations. Of those six, Santa Clara is the most likely to fall short.
Herb Sendek is entering his sixth season, and just about the only thing he’s done more consistently than not make the postseason (0–5) is schedule a boatload of home games every single year.
This season, 11 of the Broncos’ 15 non-conference games will take place at the Leavey Center. Last season (counting their “home” games in Santa Cruz while exiled from Santa Clara County due to COVID) it was 9 of 13. The year prior it was 13 of 15. Before that 9 of 14, 9 of 13 and 8 of 13.
Most of those home games have been teams Santa Clara should handle with ease, but not all. Sendek has managed to get some decent programs (Stanford, USC and Nevada) to schedule series that bring them to Santa Clara. Oh also California, which is not a decent program but is a power conference program.
This year, Stanford and Nevada will stop by the Leavey Center after Santa Clara visited them two seasons ago. So will Montana and Louisiana Tech, both above average mid-majors who could win their leagues this season. There is a very real possibility that the Broncos enter WCC play with multiple Q1/Q2 home victories.
The issue is, they won’t get much away from home. Cal is a laughingstock, TCU is the worst program in the Big 12 but probably the best team in the SoCal Challenge — which means whoever TBD winds up being, they’ll be worse than TCU — which means Boise State is probably their best, and maybe only decent game away from home before conference play.
An aside, but is Boise State the most overrated mid-major program in the sport? It seems like pundits, writers and talking heads view them as a good program, and talk about the job Leon Rice has done there (sorry, Zag Nation) but what ever is that program besides a team that gets people to say things like, “and the Broncos aren’t bad!” Sure, they’re normally in the back end of the top-100, but they’re 0–7 in the NCAA Tournament all time, 0–5 in my lifetime, and 0–2 under Rice, and both of those were play-in games. Anyway…
C
San Francisco gets some credit for working the system with a pair of allegedly neutral site games.
The Dons will face Davidson in San Francisco but not at San Francisco, and they’ll play Grand Canyon in Phoenix but not at Grand Canyon. Yeah, the GCU game would be better for the Dons if it was a true road game, but by forcing the GCU cultists I mean fans off campus the ‘Lopes will lose some of their edge. A neutral win is better than a road loss, after all.
It’s the Davidson game that I like most, though. The Wildcats will be in the mix in the A-10, as always, but who knows where they’ll land in the NET rankings. Play them at War Memorial, it could easily be a Q3 game. Put it on a neutral across town and it might bump up to Q2.
Otherwise, the schedule is pretty much just satisfactory. The Dons have been a middle of the pack team in the WCC and they’re going to face a handful of teams that are middle of the pack in the MWC. Makes sense.
Only one true road game is disappointing, but at least it comes against a power conference team. That should help the Dons in the NET. The problem is it’s the day after they face Grand Canyon. The two toughest teams on the schedule very well could come calling on back-to-back nights.
C+
Just because you’re expected to earn an at-large berth doesn’t put you above criticism, BYU. If San Diego and Pacific should be ashamed of themselves for playing two non-D1 teams, what should you be?
Westminster is a local team, whatever. If you’re gonna play a non-D1, play them. But to play them and then whatever the hell Central Methodist is on top of that? Give me a break.
Replace one of those games with literally any D1 team, even the very worst, and this schedule would get a solid B. But, alas, the Cougars went out and decided to play a pair of meaningless games (after playing a meaningless preseason exhibition, mind you).
Otherwise, the schedule is about what you would expect from BYU when BYU expects to be as about good as BYU’s ever been since joining the WCC. Personally, I love their commitment to all those in-state rivalries. There are seven D1 programs in the state of Utah and BYU’s playing four of them. That’s rad. And, they’re set to face probably the four best besides themselves. Who knows where Weber State and Utah Valley will land in the rankings, so those games might not add much to the resume, but they’re on the road so that helps.
Actually, all four of BYU’s true road games are winnable, and none of those four teams project to be absolutely awful this season.
The Cougars have three locked-in massive games, and the rivalry tilt against Utah could make it four depending on how well new man Craig Smith transitions in from Utah State. The Oregon game is the biggest, and it’s on a neutral site in … Oregon. The Creighton game is the second biggest, but it’s on a neutral three hours north of Omaha.
Technically neutral, but definitely in enemy territory.
San Diego State is the only team expected to be good coming to Provo before WCC play. Which means BYU’s going to need to build its non-con resume almost entirely away from home.
One additional bummer for BYU is that the Cougars are far and away the best team in the Diamond Head Classic. Why is that bad? Well, they should easily win, which is good. But, if they don’t, that means they’ve been upset, which is bad. And while the field isn’t bad (Stanford, Wyoming, Northern Iowa, liberty, Hawaii, Vanderbilt and South Florida), BYU’s draw isn’t exactly great. South Florida is a Q3 game, at best, and Vanderbilt or Hawaii probably wind up Q3 as well. If the Cougars don’t face Stanford in the final, they might leave Oahu with … nothing much.
B
For the first time in program history, Saint Mary’s is playing in the Maui Invitational. Welcome to the big time, Gaels.
That opening round game against Notre Dame is probably the biggest one on the entire schedule, WCC play included. Not because Notre Dame is expected to be great or anything, though it should qualify as a good win, but because a loss there would be devastating. Barring a miracle, Chaminade awaits the loser of that game. Win, and you get Oregon instead. Getting Oregon is getting a chance to pick up a massive, season-defining victory. Getting Chaminade is getting to beat a team that the selection committee will completely and totally ignore.
This happened to Gonzaga in 2013–14. They lost to Dayton, beat Chaminade and then beat Arkansas, an NIT team. It did absolutely nothing to build their resume. May as well have stayed home, other than the scenery and the weather and all that.
Saint Mary’s needs to beat Notre Dame in order for Maui to be a net-positive, pun intended.
Beyond that, San Diego State in Phoenix is the best opportunity for a signature win. Colorado State on the road should be Q2 at worst. Utah State on the road could be good, but they’ve got a new head coach so who knows. Yale, UCSB and Missouri State at home should all be decent to good, as well.
This has been updated because I accidentally left the Colorado State game off the list.
B+
There is no middle ground on the schedule for Gonzaga, it’s either must-see TV or a blowout in the making.
On the top end, you’ve got Texas coming to Spokane, likely as the highest ranked program ever to enter The Kennel (besides the Zags, of course). Duke on a neutral in Vegas, a place Zags fans travel to in droves? Yes, please. A rematch of the Final Four thriller against UCLA, also in Vegas? Absolutely. An Alabama team that got a 2 seed, in Seattle? Sign me up. Texas Tech in Phoenix, too? You bet.
This is what the Zags do every year. Anyone, normally anyone great, anywhere.
Beyond that, though, there’s nothing to the schedule. There’s Central Michigan on a neutral, which is the dictionary definition of “meh.” There’s the rivalry game against Washington at home, but the Huskies are coming off a 5–21 season, their second sub-.500 campaign in a row. Then it’s just buy games. Seven of Gonzaga’s 14 non-conference games are against incredibly inferior competition in The Kennel. We’re talking teams that could easily give up 112 or lose by 45, both of which Dixie State did in Spokane last season. We’re talking teams like that because Dixie State is coming to Spokane again this season.
Notably, Gonzaga isn’t in a premier early-season tournament this season. Also, they play a grand total of 0 true road games before WCC play. That’s why this isn’t in the A range like Gonzaga’s schedules normally are. Hit the road, and I mean the true road, damn it!
Oh, and they’re the only team in the WCC playing multiple preseason exhibitions, something they haven’t done in 15 seasons. And while they’re preseason games, so they don’t count, I have my suspicions.
A
For a program in Loyola Marymount’s position, this is about as good as you can do. Only reason it’s not an A+ is because of its size: it’s the shortest schedule in the league at just 12 games.
The Lions can reasonably expect, for the first time since the Kimble/Gathers era three decades ago, to make the NCAA Tournament. They’re expected to be good this season, maybe even very good, and they built a schedule to prove that.
They managed to build that schedule despite the fact that no power conference or elite mid-major team in their right mind would want to play them this season. LMU’s good enough to upset any team in the country, and if they live up to their ceiling, that upset won’t be a bad loss for the team they beat. But, if they pull a San Francisco, who last seasom had similar preseason buzz and took down №4 Virginia early before doing nothing else of note and flaming out to a 4–9 record in WCC play, if LMU does that, an upset loss to them would be horrible blemish on any resume.
No high level team wants to risk that.
So, how does a program at LMU’s level, with its best team on paper in over 30 years, overcome that issue? It does exactly what LMU did.
Road games against the best teams you can reasonably get, and expect to beat. Do Long Beach, Tulsa, Nevada or Bellarmine jump off the page? No. But remember, Q1 at home is a lot smaller than it is on the road. If any of those teams end up top-75, that’s a Q1 game. If they’re top-135, it’s Q2. And I think LMU’s going to be better than all of them.
Same for neutral. The Lions get Florida State in an early season tournament. Unfortunately, it’s in Jacksonville. Fortunately, as long as FSU is top-50, which they should be with ease, that’s Q1. Then they get Missouri or SMU, both of which are almost guaranteed to be Q2 at worst on a neutral.
Good teams won’t go to Gersten Pavilion, and smart good teams won’t let LMU into their gyms this season either. But LMU found a way to build a schedule that is very conducive to resume-building nonetheless. Now all that’s left to do is go out and get those wins.
