WCC Power Rankings Entering Week 3
There is some movement at the top after Gonzaga falls to as far as I can remember its lowest position ever in my rankings. I’m not going to go back and dig through years of Mid-Major Madness archives to fact check that, but considering the amount of blowback I’ve received for simply moving Gonzaga out of the top spot, I think I would remember moving them even lower.
Here’s how I see things entering week three of WCC play.
1) Saint Mary’s Gaels
Record: 13–6 (4–0)
Previous: 3
KenPom: 35; NET: 30
Last week: W 95–52 vs. Portland, W 73–49 at Santa Clara
This week: 1/20 at San Francisco
Saint Mary’s has fixed its offense and the Gaels are firing on all cylinders. They’re starting to look like the deep-run threat many expected them to be entering this season, and it’s scary.
For the season, Saint Mary’s raw offensive rating of 109.1 ranks 94th in the country per KenPom. In four games in WCC play, their offensive rating has skyrocketed to 126.4 — if that was their season-long rating, it would be 1st nationally.
It’s more than just a result of playing not-great WCC teams, though to be fair three of their four games thus far have been on the road. The Gaels have been trending this direction for a month now.
Since playing the ugliest game I’ve ever seen against UNLV on December 16, the Gaels are averaging 19.1 assists on 28.6 makes per game. That’s an assist on 66.8 percent of their shots. If that would their season long average, it would be second only to Kansas.
Prior to and through the UNLV game, the Gaels were averaging 13.8 assists on 25.9 makes per game for an assist rate of 53.3 percent.
Oh yeah, and they’re also playing defense. Most efficient defense in league play thus far.
Big test upcoming, though, against the …
2) San Francisco Dons
Record: 14–4 (3–0)
Previous: 2
KenPom: 55; NET: 44
Last week: W 83–63 at San Diego, W 96–69 vs. Portland
This week: 1/18 vs. LMU, 1/20 vs. Saint Mary’s
The Dons, despite an 0–3 record in Quad 1 and 1–1 record in Quad 2, have managed to put together a body of work that the NET holds in high regard.
On Saturday, they’ll get their last best shot at a Quad 1 win on the season when they host Saint Mary’s — the Gonzaga game being in the Chase Center tilts things in Gonzaga’s favor as far as I am concerned.
They don’t have much at the top of their resume, but a Quad 1 win Saturday would put them firmly onto the bubble conversation thanks to their strong numbers.
Looking back, those back-to-back blowouts were reassuring after an opening week nail-biter against lowly Pacific.
3) Gonzaga Bulldogs
Record: 11–5 (2–1)
Previous: 1
KenPom: 25; NET: 46
Last week: L 77–76 at Santa Clara
This week: 1/18 at Pepperdine, 1/20 at San Diego
Gonzaga has shown time and time again this season that they’re very capable of getting into trouble, and very bad at getting out of trouble. That’s exactly what happened again last Thursday at Santa Clara.
That said, considering they’ve shown basically no improvement in their weak areas over the course of the season — Graham Ike becoming the go-to guy was an improvement, but then he went for 5 and 5 (fouls) against Santa Clara so… — there’s little reason to believe they won’t keep getting themselves into trouble.
Fortunately, Pepperdine and San Diego are on the docket in this get-right week.
I did a deep-dive into how Gonzaga’s at-large case can be helped by teams other than Gonzaga in my weekly column for the Inlander, because lord knows they’re going to need help, which you can read here.
4) Santa Clara Broncos
Record: 12–7 (3–1)
Previous: 4
KenPom: 121; NET: 113
Last week: W 77–76 vs. №21 Gonzaga, L 73–49 vs. Saint Mary’s
This week: 1/18 at Pacific, 1/20 vs. Portland
At this point, everybody knows about the win. The Broncos went punch-for-punch with a team they’d lost 26 straight to and when the Zags missed late, Adama-Alpha Bal landed the knockout. It was impressive, but let’s talk about the loss.
Specifically, why I am not really going to talk about the loss.
On Thursday, against that team they had lost 26 straight to, with Steve Nash in the house for the first time in ages, a packed crowd of students wearing the jersey of an NBA Hall of Famer whose time at Santa Clara was years before any of them were born, but still going crazy like they were in the building when he played there, the Broncos found the energy and ability to win.
It was the biggest regular season win for the Broncos in the decade-plus I’ve been covering this league. Maybe the biggest overall, depending on how you feel about winning the CIT and CBI — still crazy they did that over the span of just three seasons.
Less than 48 hours later, against a team that had won just three straight against them, without Nash in the building, and a crowd that felt like it had as many empty seats as it had Broncos fans as it had Gaels fans, the Broncos found no energy and had no ability to compete, let alone win.
Would it have been nice to see this team show the ability to move on from that high and lock in for the next game? Sure. But it says more about Saint Mary’s than it does about Santa Clara.
Okay, here’s where it gets ugly. The sad reality is that for the sake of the four teams above, who carry all that’s left of the league’s postseason aspirations, and they’re barely holding on to those as it is, the teams below need to remain irrelevant. The teams below are so bad in the metrics that any damage they do to any team above them could be the difference between the NCAA and the NIT or the NIT and nothing.
5) LMU Lions
Record: 8–9 (1–2)
KenPom: 162; NET: 196
Last week: W 81–64 vs. Pacific
This week: 1/18 at San Francisco, 1/20 at Pepperdine
The Lions computer numbers suggest they’re an above average team, if only slightly. The problem is they’ve been exactly that, and against a schedule that has featured a bunch of teams that are above average as well, they’ve come up short more often than not.
Last week they got the best cure there is for a four-game skid, a visit from Pacific. This week, they hit the road.
6) Pepperdine Waves
Record: 9–10 (2–2)
KenPom: 202; NET: 220
Last week: W 93–78 vs. Pacific, W 83–77 at San Diego
This week: 1/18 vs. Gonzaga, 1/20 vs. LMU
I’m still not sure how they came back from the dead against San Diego, but they did. Now I’ve got Pepperdine too high in the rankings because just look at what’s below them.
Pepperdine lost to Gonzaga by 26 two weeks ago.
7) Portland Pilots
Record: 7–11 (1–2)
KenPom: 280; NET: 301
Last week: L 95–52 at Saint Mary’s, L 96–69 at San Francisco
This week: PPD vs. San Diego, 1/20 at Santa Clara, 1/23 vs. San Diego
A brutal ice storm that crippled much of Oregon in recent days led to the postponement of Thursday’s home game against the Toreros, which will now be played next Tuesday.
As a result, the Pilots will go for a third straight road game in the Bay Area. After watching their two road contests down there last week, the silver lining is they’re getting that region out of the way early.
8) San Diego Toreros
Record: 10–9 (0–4)
KenPom: 239: NET: 239
Last week: L 83–63 vs. San Francisco, L 83–77 vs. Pepperdine
This week: PPD at Portland, 1/20 vs. Gonzaga, 1/23 at Portland
A brutal ice storm that crippled much of Oregon in recent days led to the postponement of Thursday’s road game against the Pilots, which will now be played next Tuesday.
There’s no shame in losing to Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga and San Francisco to open the season, even if it was in blowout fashion. The loss at home to Pepperdine, though, which the Toreros choked away late? There’s shame in that.
9) Pacific Tigers
Record: 6–13 (0–4)
KenPom: 343; NET: 351
Last week: L 93–78 at Pepperdine, L 81–64 at LMU
This week: 1/18 vs. Santa Clara
After taking San Francisco to overtime at home in the opener, the Tigers have lost by 14 to Portland, 15 to Pepperdine and 17 to LMU.
Maybe they’ll get lucky and lose close to a Bay Area team at home again.
