Week 4 WCC Power Rankings
Not a lot of movement in the power rankings as the WCC enters Week 4 of conference play as the league has gone almost entirely chalk to start the season.
Only one game thus far has seen the higher-ranked team on KenPom lose, and that was two weeks ago when Santa Clara took down Gonzaga. Outside of that, the higher-ranked team has taken care of business.
That’s been great news for the league’s postseason hopes. Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s entered league play as the only teams with realistic at-large hopes, and even despite Gonzaga’s loss at Santa Clara, both have maintained that position.
San Francisco and Santa Clara have NIT hopes, and through three weeks both have maintained those as well with each having just one loss, and both losses coming to Saint Mary’s.
Here’s where things stand heading into Week 4.
1) Saint Mary’s Gaels
Record: 14–6 (5–0)
Previous: 1
KenPom: 28 (+7); NET: 23 (+7)
Last week: W 77–60 at San Francisco
This week: 1/25 vs. Pacific, 1/27 vs. LMU
Just one game last week but the Gaels made it count by absolutely drubbing the league’s other undefeated (at the time) on The Hilltop. Saint Mary’s jumped on San Francisco early with a barrage of three pointers and didn’t let up.
It’s hard not to sound like a broken record when I mention how dramatically Saint Mary’s offense has improved from their dismal start to the season, so here’s just one tidbit on that matter. For the entire season, per KenPom, Aidan Mahaney’s offensive rating is 112.4. In league play, it’s 142.3.
Gaels can’t get caught looking past what should be an easy homestand this week.
2) Gonzaga Bulldogs
Record: 13–5 (4–1)
Previous: 3
KenPom: 19 (+6); NET: 28 (+18)
Last week: W 86–61 at Pepperdine, W 105–63 at San Diego
This week: 1/25 vs. San Francisco, 1/27 at Pacific
With every passing day I feel like I understand the NET less and less. Here’s a passage from a story published on NCAA.com less than two months ago:
How does Gonzaga jump 18 spots in one week by beating (the shit out of, to be fair) NET №233 Pepperdine and NET №253 San Diego if scoring margin isn’t a factor? I don’t get it.
But hey, the Zags are the top-team in the WCC in the NCAA’s primary sorting tool when it comes to selecting and seeding the tournament, and they’re up there in KenPom, too. Just keep winning and the NCAA Tournament streak shouldn’t be in doubt.
3) San Francisco Dons
Record: 15–5 (4–1)
Previous: 2
KenPom: 65 (-10); NET: 58 (-14)
Last week: L 77–60 vs. Saint Mary’s
This week: 1/25 at Gonzaga, 1/27 at Portland
San Francisco has fallen from 42 in the NET after one week of league play down to 58. They’re no longer a Quad 1 game on a neutral site. They’re also plummeting in KenPom.
To be fair, Saint Mary’s is the best team they’ve faced this season. 11 of their 14 wins have come in Quad 4 and they’re just 5–4 away from home.
Don’t look now, but they’re about to play a team that is, as far as the advanced metrics are concerned, better than Saint Mary’s, and they’re gonna do it on the road.
Jonathan Mogbo was held to just 5 shots against Saint Mary’s, his second-lowest of the season. Dons will need a lot more from him in The Kennel.
4) Santa Clara Broncos
Record: 14–7 (5–1)
Previous: 4
KenPom: 119 (+2); NET: 112 (+1)
Last week: W 88–69 at Pacific, W 101–86 vs. Portland
This week: 1/25 vs. Pepperdine
Broncos handled business, convincingly, against two of the league’s lesser teams. Can’t ask for much more from them in that kind of situation. It’s the same situation they find themselves in this week with just one game.
Santa Clara’s solid depth was on display once again last week as six Broncos recorded double figures against Portland. The Pilots, on the other hand, played just six guys.
In the first matchup of the season, Santa Clara survived by four at Pepperdine. Hope for an easier win at home on Thursday.
5) LMU Lions
Record: 9–10 (2–3)
Previous: 5
KenPom: 161 (+1); NET: 181 (+15)
Last week: L 90–74 at San Francisco, W 68–61 at Pepperdine
This week: 1/25 vs. Portland, 1/27 at Saint Mary’s
The Lions have separated from the packs both below and above them and are pulling out of their freefall in the metrics. They’re no longer trending towards being a Quad 4 result regardless of venue — they’re currently Quad 3 both neutral and at Gersten and 21 spots from being Quad 3 regardless of venue.
They’ve been surprisingly close in their two games versus superior competition at home, but they’re now in the middle of a stretch of five games out of six away from Gersten, with three of those games coming against the league’s top-three.
T-8) San Diego Toreros
Record: 11–10 (1–5)
Previous: 8
KenPom: 244 (-5); NET: 253 (-14)
Last week: L 105–63 vs. Gonzaga, W 85–81 at Portland
This week: 1/27 at Pepperdine
San Diego’s last win over Gonzaga was February 22, 2014. The Zags swept them this season, so that streak will turn 10 before the Toreros get their next shot at ending it.
I put them first among the teams tied for eighth not so much because they’re the only one this low to get a win last week, but because they’ve played the toughest schedule of the bunch so far. And they did get a win I guess.
T-8) Pepperdine Waves
Record: 9–12 (2–4)
Previous: 6
KenPom: 218 (-16); NET: 233 (-13)
Last week: L 86–61 vs. Gonzaga, L 68–61 vs. LMU
This week: 1/25 at Santa Clara, 1/27 vs. San Diego
Hey, they were tied with Gonzaga at half. Their average margin of defeat vs. Gonzaga this season is 25.5 points. 40 minutes.
The Waves talent shows up against inferior opposition. Against better teams, more often than not they turn into an inefficient bunch.
T-8) Portland Pilots
Record: 7–13 (1–4)
Previous: 7
KenPom: 289 (-9); NET: 306 (-5)
Last week: L 101–86 at Santa Clara, L 85–81 vs. San Diego
This week: 1/25 at LMU, 1/27 vs. San Francisco
Man, the injury bug has hampered the Pilots this season. They’ve put up some valiant efforts despite being shorthanded, and that’s why I have them in a tie here instead of alone in eighth. Get Tyler Robertson (34 points at Santa Clara, 17 points vs. San Diego) some help and this team could cause some problems.
9) Pacific Tigers
Record: 6–14 (0–5)
Previous: 9
KenPom: 346 (-3); NET: 356 (-5)
Last week: L 88–69 vs. Santa Clara
This week: 1/25 at Saint Mary’s, 1/27 vs. Gonzaga
Pacific has lost 11 straight vs. D1. Their last win needed overtime versus Mississippi Valley State at home. Mississippi Valley State is dead last in KenPom and the NET. There’s a reason the Tigers aren’t far off that pace.
Their opponents this week, on the other hand…
