Predicting the global economy

Let’s all look at this chart: the International Monetary Fund forecasts the global economy’s growth each year.

Breaking it down, these are the numbers of 2010:

…so the IMF forecast seems to be rather optimistic:

That’s a near miss, the actual numbers in 2011:

Sure enough, that’s a depressing trend, but it’s probably over, right?

Nope, still doesn’t seem to be correcting. Maybe next year? Or the year after that? What do you think of the 2016 predictions?

From this interview with George Soros:

“…it’s much better to face harsh reality than to close your eyes to it. Once you are aware of the dangers, your chances of survival are much better if you take some risks than if you meekly follow the crowd. That is why I trained myself to look at the dark side.”