The Russia Investigation
The who, what, when, where, and why you need to get your facts straight
The Russia investigation happening both in the news and behind closed doors has the potential to be one of the most impactful events on the legacy of our nation or one of the biggest wastes of time in recent memory. There’s a lot of moving parts to a story this huge, and there are new developments happening every day, so between all the political spin coming at you from both sides of the aisle, it may be difficult to understand what’s going on. That’s why I’ve decided to break down what’s significant, what’s spin, and most importantly, what’s actually happening.
First off we need to understand what an FBI investigation actually means. There seems to be a sense that an investigation implies that a law has been broken. That would explain why the left has seen the recent investigation into the Trump campaign’s ties with Russia as particularly damning, and why the right is on full defensive. In reality it’s much more mundane, at least for the moment.
Remember, in the United States people are innocent until proven guilty. An investigation just means that law enforcement are looking into what proof (if any) exists that a certain party committed a crime. A quick look at the FBI’s website explains this process further.
“If a possible violation of federal law under the jurisdiction of the FBI has occurred, the Bureau will conduct an investigation. The information and evidence gathered in the course of that investigation are then presented to the appropriate U.S. Attorney or Department of Justice official, who will determine whether or not prosecution or further action is warranted.”
See, an FBI investigation works a bit differently than say, a homicide investigation. In the case of a homicide investigation there is usually a body that works as irrefutable proof a crime has been committed. The bulk of the investigation is then focused on who committed the murder.
In the case of an FBI investigation on the other hand, they are often tasked with the burden of proving a crime was committed in the first place. Then, secondarily, identifying those who are guilty of the crime.
“So,” you may ask, “was a crime committed with regards to the Russia investigation?” Which is a great question with a very unsatisfying answer, which is that we don’t know. By “we” I mean the public. It is entirely possible that the investigators are already certain that a crime was or was not committed, but we can’t know at this time because the investigation hasn’t been closed. Let’s go back to that FBI FAQ page and hone in on one question in particular.
“Can I obtain detailed information about a current FBI investigation that I see in the news?
No. Such information is protected from public disclosure, in accordance with current law and Department of Justice and FBI policy. This policy preserves the integrity of the investigation and the privacy of individuals involved in the investigation prior to any public charging for violations of the law. It also serves to protect the rights of people not yet charged with a crime.”
So far we know about the abnormally large amount of connections between members of the Trump campaign, Trump himself, and Russian officials and businesses. Here’s a helpful interactive graphic from the Washington Post that lays them out.
Now these connections aren’t in and of themselves illegal, but along with the specific timing of certain meetings between Trump surrogates and Russian officials that seemed to correlate with direct impacts to the Republican platform, the facts start to paint a different picture. One such example is a meeting between Trump ally Carter Page and Rosneft (Russia’s major oil producer) CEO Igor Sechin. An as of yet unverified dossier claims that Sechin offered Page and associates a 20% stake in Rosneft if they were able to lift US sanctions against Russia. Later a sale of 19.5% was made to “unknown buyers” and the Republican party changed their platform at the RNC to include both no longer sending arms to Ukraine and softening stances against Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
This along with a much longer timeline of Trump-Russia connections were deemed enough evidence to start an investigation into possible Russia collusion. I emphasize start because all of what has been revealed to the public so far has been nothing but circumstantial evidence, and therefore would not be considered grounds to press charges. Something to keep in mind though, is that all of the evidence thus far is comprised of public information along with a few things leaked to the press. Neither the FBI nor Special Counsel Mueller have commented much, if at all, on matters pertaining to the investigation that weren’t already in the news.
Fast forward to former FBI director James Comey’s testimony just a few days ago. In it, Comey makes a few stunning claims about his interactions with President Trump. There seem to be two major take-aways depending on which party’s talking about it. The Democrats cited Trump’s consistent, alleged remarks to Comey alluding to the investigation as “a cloud” hanging over him, and repeatedly inquiring if there was anything Comey could do to “lift the cloud.”, coupled with Comey’s firing as evidence of Trump’s attempt to obstruct the investigation. While the Republicans took the opportunity to celebrate Comey’s testimony that confirmed Trump had never personally been under investigation.
Now as far as the Democrats go, there needs to be an understanding that what evidence Comey did provide is likely nowhere near enough to have charges brought against Trump or his campaign. Many like to assert that it’s obstruction of justice, but that is a hard sell. Obstruction of justice is an incredibly high legal standard. It requires very direct, provable action that would cause a federal investigation to be notably slowed or halted, such as refusing to comply with a subpoena, bribing officials, threatening witnesses, or lying to investigators.
That is not to say the testimony didn’t provide evidence that Trump appears to have a vested interest in ending the investigation, which could be used to support more damning evidence that comes to light during the investigation. At this time though, we are simply going to have to wait and see what Mueller is able to find.
As far as the Republicans trying to insist that Comey’s testimony exonerated Trump goes, I’m sorry to inform them, that simply isn’t the case. Conservative radio hosts such as Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity have been having a field day citing Comey’s admission Trump was not under investigation, along with all the quotes from congressmen and investigators saying they had not yet seen conclusive evidence of collusion with Russia, in an attempt to say all that was proof there wasn’t collusion. Hannity specifically likes calling them “black helicopter stories” and “tin hat conspiracy theories” seemingly every twenty minutes on the air.
First off, Trump is now personally under criminal investigation.
Secondly, they are demonstrating a very strange misunderstanding of how our justice system works. The claim is essentially, “Mueller hasn’t recommended charges, so they should stop the investigation into whether charges should be recommended.” Some how they have forgotten in this country you don’t get charged before you are properly investigated.
So in their own ways, both sides are jumping to conclusions. So what are we supposed to do? Simple. Wait, and stay informed. At this point, there is nothing for us to do. We aren’t going to figure out if a crime has been committed listening to political commentators. We will only have some idea what’s going on when Mueller releases his findings along with his recommendation to Deputy AG Rosenstein. Until then, we can all slow down with the rampant speculation.
That being said, continue to stay up to date on what’s happening. Things to be on the look out for include:
- Firing of Special Counsel Mueller: Comey’s firing really could have been a bungled changing of the guard for all we know. To fire two people leading the investigation on the other hand? That would be more than enough to build an obstruction of justice case, especially because the obstruction doesn’t have to be intentional beyond a certain point. This isn’t likely because of how insanely bad this would look for the Trump administration, but some reports suggest Trump was considering it, and the decision seems to be popular with Trump’s base. Should Mueller be fired, we as citizens are going to have to get loud and make our voice heard.
- Rosenstein Refuses to Act: It is entirely possible Mueller closes his investigation with enough evidence to charge Trump and/or his associates and Rosenstein still decides to not press charges. Once again we as citizens will have to step up and push for justice. Assuming Mueller recommends charges against Trump and Rosenstein doesn’t act, Trump can still be impeached in the House, so there’s at least a fail safe there.
Though what is much more likely to happen than either of those outcomes is that Mueller will close his investigation, make his recommendation, the Department of Justice will follow that recommendation, and (for better or worse) we are all just going to have to accept whatever that outcome may be.
Now I know that’s one of the most unsatisfying conclusions anyone could have hoped for, but if we don’t learn to cool it with partisan speculation, the divides of our nation will only continue to grow. We need to hold together, or at least close enough to generally accept the outcome of this investigation. The last year has been hard on us all, but the worst is yet to come, and as our enemies become more emboldened in their attacks on our democracy, the fact is we are going to need each other more than ever.
