Analysis of Augur (REP)
A decentralized prediction market platform.
Augur attempts to decentralize the prediction market by allowing users, rather than a centralized figure, to confirm the outcomes of events. First an event is created, it could be the outcome of a binary event (Lakers vs. Celtics) or it could be a non-binary event (How many inches of snowfall were there in January). Then the event happens, but how can we trust that the reported outcome of the event is correct? The users on the network announce the outcome of this event and gain reputation (REP) if they told the truth, and lose REP if they lied. A user is considered to be lying if the majority of the other users disagree with their reporting.
This platform allows users to bet Bitcoin on certain events while also gaining REP (reputation) by validating the outcome of events. This plan effectively eliminates the requirement for a totally honest oracle to validate the outcomes (ie. Las Vegas betting firms).
The basic of the Network is as follows:
- Event Created -> Event added to the market -> Users bet on the event
- Event happens -> Users vote on the outcome
- Users lose and gain REP for reporting correctly
- Users gain or lose Bitcoin for predicting the event correctly
Currently Augur is waiting on their smart contracts to be audited and tested by CoinSpect, a reputable smart contract code auditor. Back in July of 2017 there was a serious security bug found in one of the smart contracts during an audit, here is a link to more information: http://bit.ly/2v5C71w. They are now going through the second and third round of contract audits to make sure that they are usable and safe. They also recently released a new version of their white paper because the product has changed in the past few years since the ICO.
My Thoughts:
I have a problem with the platform taking over three years to be released. I checked out the beta version of the platform and it was really hard to use and needs a lot of work. I understand that it takes a lot of work to develop a platform of this scale, but Augur was launched in 2015; I think they should have something significant to show for it by now. I do not think the price is justified and it would take a lot of new developments for me to invest.
I would need to see these things at the bare minimum:
- A mainnet release of the prediction market that is highly functional, and has a large amount of users.
- The platform is well developed and works smoothly. They have spent years on this so it should be pretty good when they actually release it.
If Augur can’t get these things done in the next 6 months, I don’t think Augur can live up to the hype from the past three years.
Additional Resources:
Please note: all opinions I have expressed are my own.
