This year’s monsoon has been below normal

Contrary to the IMD’s earlier predictions, rainfall has been below normal in key crop-growing states

The first half of the monsoon season ended on Sunday with a “below normal” rainfall as per the records of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). The monsoon, which delivers close to 70% of India’s annual rainfall, is crucial for the farm sector since half of the country’s agricultural lands lack basic irrigation facilities.

Rainfall was 91% of the long-term average at the end of July-September monsoon season, in contrast to the forecast of 97%, marking the fifth straight year of overestimation by the weather office.

In spite of low overall rainfall, the distribution has been quite unpredictable with states such as Kerala and Nagaland receiving heavy rainfall and flash floods causing damage to lives, crops, and property. This erratic distribution of extremely dry or wet weather conditions is increasing in proportion due to climate change and according to the annual economic survey, it is estimated that rain-dependent areas suffer close to 14.3% fall in agricultural revenue in cases of drastic rainfall shocks.

This year’s “below normal” rainfall has adversely affected the rice and maize growing states of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand, the cotton growing state of Gujarat and the oilseed and pulse-growing state of Madhya Pradesh.

Taking into account the expected shortage from low rainfall and the government’s commitment to raising Minimum Support Prices, we expect the prices of these crops to increase.

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