The Election Campaign for the UK Snap Election on June 8th is nearly over, with only four days remaining until the final vote. And what’s happened? Politicians, Pollsters and the Public started out predicting a Tory landslide win. Ukip dead in the pool, Corbyn deposed, and the PM with a “strong and stable” mandate for tough take-it-or-leave-it talk in Brussels. Even the EU top brass felt the need to pronounce the expected high majority in the Commons “meaningless” for the coming Brexit negotiations.
But after a few short days, alas, things started to go a bit wobbly. The slogan “Strong and Stable” was repeated so often and in so many circumstances that people got sick of hearing this mantra to each and every critical question. Finally, this originally well-crafted alliteration was little more than an awkward debt on the campaign’s communications.
The Conservative Campaign hit another round of bumps when the PM announced an ill-worded concept that people thought would rob them of house and home in case they had to get treatment for dementia. Finally, Theresa May made herself little friends when she declined to take part in a televised face-to-face discussion with Labour’s recovering frontman Jeremy “back-from-the-dead” Corbyn.
Strong and Stable or Chaos and Coalition?
In some sense, Mrs May has edged herself into a corner she certainly didn’t want to. By asserting that anything less than a magnificently increased Cons majority would lead to chaos, she is bound to answer even more silly questions if she misses her sound victory.
So what are the possible outcomes we would likely be facing come Friday? We’ll be checking out the more likely ones, hoping for the best, of course, whatever that means.
1. Theresa gets lucky and Cons a sweeping majority
Not really. The latest Saturday Evening Polls show a wide divergence in the Conservative lead over Labour ranging from just 1% by Survation to a tasy 13% by ComRes, the mean being at 6%.
Will it make life any easier for her in Westminster or Brussels? It’ll certainly strengthen her and in and around Westminster, guaranteeing a free hand to change ranks according to her own tastes. The Telegraph reported that Chancellor Philipp Hammond might be replaced, a piece of news he publicly denied, confirming his wish to carry on after June 8th. And there’s Boris, still widely popular with some sides but even less so with others. While he had to be given a senior job after bowing out to Theresa May in the leadership race, he’ll need further arguments should the PM conquer a convincing majority in her own right.
And Brussels?
Kicking Britain is the worst thing Eurocrats could do under these circumstances, yet it’s the received opinion. Purportedly to prevent cherry-picking and other member states going awol. Unless minds and concepts in Brussels change drastically, an improved majority in London won’t change much in relation to Brussels. EU leaders and technocrats are political animals, though, and will try to take advantage of an Election Mayday for the PM. The answer? Just look at the Adenauer chancellorship passing the Bundestag by the tiny margin of exactly one vote— his own.
2. Theresa gets a slim so-so majority
Anything less than a convincing victory will eat into her own authority, and even rather quickly, if the numbers don’t add up but her opponents’ do. May eventually lead to another PM banking on someone else’s majority. Would be a great feast for EU hardliners but little else. And Hangover guaranteed, regardless of how hard they’ll be partying.
3. That dreadful coalition thing again
Coalitions will be chaotic and, anyway, led by none other than Jeremy Corbyn.
This is the illusion the incumbent Prime Minister gave at the outset when she was still reciting her “Strong and Stable”-Mantra. Even today, the statistical probability of a parliament without a single-party majority is only at 4%. But given the plethora of new predictive models applied to the forecasts, this may change rather quickly.
Again, as pointed earlier in this publication, Conservative strategists are well advised to plan even for the calamity of having to negotiate or deal with an awkward Coalition Government. After wading through so many Inconceivabilities since June 23rd last year, Party managers should be aware that the unlikely is ever more likely to happen. If you’re not prepared, you end up producing a panicking poor performance. Or worse still, none at all.
Who’s possibly going to be a good coalition candidate? And who is willing to engage in a coalition junior role? The Lib Dems paid a heavy price for their part in David Cameron’s first administration, leading to his surprise majority in 2015. They already declined ex ante any possible invitation for talks after June 8th, fearing another electoral slap-down, but that may also just mean raising the asking price for a deal.
Corbyn can’t be part — ruling out a Cons / Lab coalition. That is, if he really stays on. Labour again has people with mass appeal and no longer needs recourse to old grass-roots and Clause Four-veterans. The London Mayor Sadiq Khan for example cut a good figure fighting for London after the Brexit Desaster and performed sensibly and even a whiff statesman-like in the aftermath of the recent lunatic attacks on British soil. What about Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP members in Westminster? Hard to believe. Coalesce with Ukip? They probably won’t get enough seats to provide for a majority.
A Coalition Government in Article 50 Negotiations
This is maybe the silent dream of many Remainers: A Coalition that would “Tame the Tamerlane” Rhetoric by the incumbent Conservative government and reach a sensible deal with the EU, ultimately leaving a door open for the UK to come back quickly and easily. Or not exiting at all, just entering into a new phase of reformed EU frameworks and relations. As even Mrs. Merkel and Messrs. Macron and Tusk voiced the need for an EU grand overhaul, this might be the perfect moment to get several things done at once. In the end everybody gets the credit, nobody gets the blame. Simply wonderful, isn’t it?
If it only were that simple. After the heavy artillery in the election campaigns, coalition members will have to find new confidence in the other side — and haven’t got the time. Negotiations are scheduled to begin less than two weeks later, on a very tight agenda not likely to hold. And the Brussels kennel keepers are set to be reducing the food ratios for their negotiating teams, to make sure that Brexit doesn’t pay. A face-down with a clear “There can be but one” divide between victory and defeat, however, would be the worst option.
Think about a framework able to accomodate the current situation
Brussels bigwigs will have to accept that they’re already on the losing side- and their exit squabble with a member state nothing else but in-fighting occupying resources needed elsewhere. EU Officials and Politicians should set their sight on reforming the EU, its framework and institutions. Doing even more of the same and aggravating the rift along the English Channel might not be what is needed right now. Dreams about ever deeper integration are what dreams are about — wishes or prescient glances into a longer timeframe. What we need right now is more of a fire engine for supranational organizations in suspense, all ablaze.
Create administrative possibilities to keep the Brits in the loop and avoid an unfriendly break-up. If you realize that dozens of other EU member states like that model better than the status quo laid down in the currently valid EU treaties, don’t punish the Brits for that, in the vain hope that brutality bears big booty. Rather, think about what the Union should be about and what its members want it to be.
Or do you prefer a feast — of Belshazzar?
Should the Brussels Bureaucracy prefer to stick to its “Don’t care where you go”-ignorance, it should be reminded that paradigms shift rather quickly these days. Germany’s own Chancellor recently pointed out in rather uncharacteristic bluntness that neither the US nor the UK can be regarded as trusted allies any longer. A thought too unthinkable for decades. As we pointed out above, this is the Age of Inconceivabilities. Including the Brussels Machine losing touch with even the national elites. As every vacuum has to be filled, there are already lots of contenders for world leader such as China and India who are only too happy schmoozing European powers to get a piece of the cake left vacant by President Trump’s focus on his America First-Paris-Last-policy.
In the end, the EU with all her glory, legal work and stately buildings will have to face the music herself and prove why it’s still there. And it shouldn’t think its existence and function are carved in stone.
