And they’re off. The first round of the French Presidential elections ended without a majority winner, centrist Emanuel Macron and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen having to stand again in two weeks time.
Out of the three most likely scenarios pointed out in our previous article on the likely outcome of the 23 April Elections, we’re now in number two: one mainstream candidate, one headache standing against each other in a run-off.
The French Taste for La Révolution
Amid all the sighs of relief that at least one moderate candidate made it into the second round and polls predicting his win by a huge margin, this outcome is really a revolution in itself.
On the one hand, you have a government-dropout fresh from founding his own political movement— the party’s not even fully set up — while on the other there is the daughter of a former establishment bogey-man, her name just stopping short of the famous republican symbol Marianne. And this very lady promises to even do away with the complete political and economical framework that held France in place since the inception of Nato.
Both major party candidates (ok, major until Sunday evening) came out of the election lagging clearly behind. They still have the savoir-faire of running an administration while pushing your own ideas and installing your chaps in key positions — yet at the moment it seems unlikely they will need it inside the Elysée for years to come.
Oh, very young, what will you leave us this time?
On the contrary, what exactly can you expect to get when you vote someone in who can’t fall back on a proven infrastructure to govern? Chaos and arbitrary decision making as seen in the 1790s? Probably not. Despite his too young organisation, Macron has been in the game for several years — both as staffer and minister. He knows at least how things should be run and done. If he really can’t fill all the posts that are up for grabs with his first-hour party faithful, waving with lucrative postings or influence in the Elysée is always an option and still almighty incentive.
Well, if M. Macron can obfuscate his close ties to the crestfallen adminstration of Président Hollande, why shouldn’t his female adversary cut hers with a party that causes indigestion for vast swathes of the bourgeois electorate?As it turned out Monday evening Marine Le Pen is temporarily suspending her FN party leadership to run as an independent candidate.
Levelling the playing field is clever, making it rather difficult for Macron to play the cool and victorious one.
It is rather helpful in this respect that Madame’s estranged father, founder and still for a many the patron of the party she heads, just criticised her campaign as too lenient and cosy on the establishment. Thus making it easy for his now dovish daughter and the press to remind everyone that it was her who kicked out old Francois for racist attitudes and comments some years ago. Just in case the electorate forgot what a centrist and rather established politician she really is. Sort of.
The real Tragedy went unnoticed
Despite all the sighs of relief that one mainstream candidate eventually made it into the second round, the evening’s real tragedy developed under the radar for most and was neatly overlooked on night itself. The Big Two parties of France, Conservatives and Socialists, once changing votes and governments between them, are no longer present in 2017's second scrum. The preceding administrations, one conservative and the other socialist, set the stage for that. Nicolas Sarkozy, who at least was a credible establishment president, succeeded in promoting La France as many étrangères want to see it: Smart and slightly aloof with model-style wifes that do well on the catwalk (and she actually did this time) is still a page-turner when it comes to French politics. Hollande, on the other hand, was the stern and down-to-earth president wanting to focus on the hard work again and bring the country together. Well, he did, in the end they all agreed that he was terrible, prompting his decision not to stand for a second term.
There’s still hope, though. French voters will have to go the polls once more this spring, with the Parliamentary Elections coming up in mid-June. The party faithful on the left as well as on the right may feel reassured should they see a decent outcome. If voters keep turning to the new and fringe parties for parliament as well, that means massive mayhem for the big parties and organizational problems for the newbies.
Some commentators already attribute an even higher importance to this separate ballot as Parliament has the ultimate power to confine an unwanted president to a largely ceremonial role. So whoever manages to have the Elysée Palace redecorated in two weeks’ time, will rely on the outcome of the next vote and the benevolence of the House majority.
Don’t stop me now, I’m having such a good time
On the one hand that might mean Marine Le Pen could have trouble pushing through her most contentious ideas, which is certainly rather reassuring. However, as the French not only a have a taste for Révolution but also for Cohabitation, things can become tricky for Macron too once elected. If he doesn’t get the support in parliament he needs, there won’t be much impact from his tenure.
To complicate things further, presidential elections with a clear friend foe-divide are always a tad apart from rather open parliamentary votes. Established Conservatives and Socialist will probably vote Macron in May, but cut off their support in June.
The new deputées that still accrue to the established order won’t be too pleased to see a president building up his own party destined to eat their bread and take their votes. How big Macron’s share of parliamentary seats will be, remains to be seen. As noted before, he simply can’t command an infrastructure ready to attack throughout the country. Being still in the start-up phase, the Chairman of En Marche! has to prove he can turn his one man-show into a parliamentary group with a sizeable membership.
What’s in it for the Brits?
Probably not much. Macron will support the EU and its negotiators. Any upcoming issues will be solved directly and amicably with Angela Merkel, being only too interested in keeping relations up with the neighbour next door.
In case PM May hoped for a major European power to slip into political disarray to ease her Brexit negotiating worries, that’s rather likely off now.
Depending on his electoral success in the June elections, Macron may rely on parliamentary support where it is to be found. Which in turns hints at the adoption of a more Hollande-style tough stance on everything Brexit.
In the end, installing Monsieur Macron in the downtown Palace that takes its name from a state of eternal bliss will sadly take the French nowhere near. Fending off Madame Le Pen is just a prerequisite for getting the real stuff done. And the victor still has to show that he can get the support that he or she needs on a sustainable long term-basis. Else we’ll all be in for a lot more trouble.
Where will this revolution in itself end? The Flower Power Children finally stopped smoking and thinking about Sartre, got their degrees and started building careers, families, houses. The boring stuff. As for France, look at the outcome of the big one: The French of the late 18th Century became so very revolutionary, they even made one of their own generals an Emperor. And a few decades later, they welcomed the old Bourbon dynasty back to Paris.
Which, after all the torment and turmoil is finally some consolation for Président Hollande as he prepares to move to another abode: Some short years or maybe decades from now, France will vote to have a Socialist back in office. Peace, Brother!
