For the recent G7 Cultural Summit in Florence one of the city’s most precious Etruscan antiquities was hauled from the Museo Archeologico to the Palazzo Vecchio right above the famous David by Michelangelo and Bandinelli’s giant Hercules and Cacus.
A favourite of Grand Duke Cosimo I., it represents a fancy Beast snapping menacingly at an imaginary target, a mighty snake-ended tail raised and flying high above its ridge. On its forearm, some unknown characters are to be discerned, seemingly neither of Latin nor Greek origin.
“What’s this strange creature about?”,
the visitor unwittingly asks himself as he enters the high-ceilinged salone, formerly the quarters of Leo X., Pope from 1513 and one of the ruling family’s luminaries. Well, what? Not really the Greek or Roman beauty you know from school, maybe Etruscan. But the tail added later? Hmm, doesn’t add up, there must be more to it. And so it goes on and on. After ten minutes more watching and examining, you felt close to truth a dozen of times — but, alas, you never were. Or not? This is exactly the impression creeping in for Sunday’s election results- the big Election in France and the decision in Schleswig-Holstein’s State Election, much smaller in scale but equally interesting in outcome.
Sunday’s victories nothing but a chimera?
Going by the definitions in the OED, a chimera is a monster composed of several other animals’ parts or simply an illusion or mission impossible.
On both Macron and the surprise CDU win in Germany’s northernmost state, people may fall prey to just that. The German Conservatives have just about managed to topple the old government composed of SPD and Greens. Bravo. Does it mean they can move in now? Certainly not, they will need coalition partners — lots of them. Whether they will hammer out a deal or fail over the last metres, is still open to speculation.
In France, Macron’s big problems remain: His only year-old organisation has an untested and unproven firing power in parliamentary elections. Though his party membership is now said to be at 200.000, it is mostly based on one-click online adhesions. How many of these memberships can be transformed into canvassing staff or even paying subscriptions remains to be seen. A party not having a single seat in parliament is also sure to fight an uphill struggle against old-party candidates with a well-oiled local and national campaign machine behind them. With polls showing that Macron’s En Marche movement will rather certainly be able to muster 200+ seats, regardless of its age or staff count, this problem may turn out to diminish rather quickly.
There’s no banking on Not being someone
Furthermore, En Marche strategists should be realistic enough to acknowledge that a substantial share of their presidential vote came not from his ideas or identity but rather from his not being Marine LePen.
Equally, conservative voters in Austria preferred to vote for an ex-Green Presidential Candidate in late 2016 rather than seeing a far-right FPÖ big wig entering Vienna’s Hofburg Residence. As for Britain, Theresa May can rest pretty much assured that the lacking popularity of her Labour counterpart will pay a pretty dividend at the ballot box. The trouble is that this new found love is rather shallow and short-lived. French citizens have been repeatedly quoted as saying that they’re not happy with the choice between either Macron or Le Pen, fearing that neither will be able to change much.
So better remember the cool party night yesterday — if you’re a Macron, of course — and prepare for the tough bit to come in the following weeks — and the years to follow.
Besides, the NOT Movement rarely lasts for long. This message came home rather brutally last week for Ukip whose message and raison d’etre always was “No EU in Britain”. Now that this void rather successfully addressed by Farage and his folk has been filled and occupied by the Tories themselves, what are Ukip for apart from being NOT EU? Maybe they didn’t make it clear, as the electorate all over England didn’t seem to know and reduced Ukip seats on local councils to just one, nationally.
No Macron without a Majority
So despite the glitzy photos of his grand election night do in the Louvre, M Macron will have to convince even those people who voted for him that he really can manage. Which on the other hand is nearly impossible in a cohabitation viz a Prime Minister from a competing party. The Président might be young and energetic enough to face down any attempt to thwart his plans, but it would consume an enormous amount of the time and effort he dearly needs for his ambitious reform plans.
Established parties will soon forget how he saved them from Marine Le Pen and see the danger his movement poses: A promising new kid on the block having real support means old pecking order rearranged means old fiefdoms under threat. Once they realise Macron is not some sort of Lohengrin, disappearing after his glorious deed things may get ugly for him too. Can he stand the old Paris Power Game certain to come up sometime after the Parliamentary election, whatever the outcome?
To see his ideas, visions and finally, decisions through, he really needs a stable majority, to quote a phrase now heavily overused in another European country. If he’s able to hold or even increase his popular momentum we saw on Sunday evening, he may get near one.
So his message over the coming weeks must certainly be (apologies again to № 10):
Macron means Majority. If you want him to make a success of it.
But let’s hope he doesn’t end like another of Wagner’s operatic heroes: Rienzi stood up to the old order, crushed some tyrannies, became a ruler himself— only to go down to just the Daimon he despised so successfully. Rather soothingly though, the former banker turned minister turned party founder’s acceptance speech late on Sunday night made clear that he pretty much knows what’s ahead and under no illusions as to the scale of his task ahead.
Monsieur le Président, wishing all the best of luck, and of course, Eudaimonia.
