Remember that Must-See Meme from Summer? It was showing a sleek young man walking along a lively street with a beautiful girlfriend by his side — while openly gazing the other way judging a different girl’s back.
This supposedly nonsensical stock photo may hold some clue as to what has happened during the last days of the “Jamaica Coalition”-talks between Chancellor Merkel’s CDU, the tried and tested liberal partner FDP and the (no longer) tree-hugging German Green Party Die Grünen.
Merkel’s strength…
Chancellor Merkel has one big asset honed through years of difficult haggling both in Berlin and Brussels: negotiating skills. In her own way of doing “The Art of the Deal” (maybe she’ll be equally well positioned to write a book on the subject) Mrs. Merkel has always managed to get different, even harshly opposing views to agree all elements necessary for a good deal.
Which ingredients exactly make up her secret sauce of negotiating will likely remain a secret until the publication of said book, however, some traits can be ascertained without being a fly on the wall during her policy conversations:
Merkel’s winning trait in ruling with the social democrat SPD was to take on some of their key demands, incorporate them into a conservative context and expand on them. Leaving little room to criticise her because it was just what everybody wanted in the first place.
Next stop Fukushima: In a bad pitch because of the power plant disaster in Japan Merkel just dropped nuclear in her own country- and blast-all about the money you might pay in damages to nuclear power plant operators (eventually resulting in the German Constitutional Court ruling that the plant operators can legally claim damages for the early shutdown).
And, finally, gay marriage: A core green demand, it’s been anathema to traditional conservative voters and party officials. As a leading conservative and vicar’s daughter, Merkel put the option of same-sex civil marriages back on the table and allowed it to go through. The timing of the vote in the first half of 2017 conincided nicely with parties’ preparations for the September Bundestag Elections. She didn’t inhale though, personally voting against the motion in the crunch Bundestag session but having it known she would accept another outcome.
…backfired in a Jamaica-setting
So how could it all go wrong then? FDP-leader Christian Lindner (only 38, find more on him here or here) complained about the lack of trust and about Merkel’s endeavours to cosy up the Greens while taking the Liberals for granted.
Here’s a nice piece by German broadcaster DW on Lindner and his reasons for quitting:
Lack of trust between German Greens and Liberals is hardly surprising, both following antagonistic policy ideals: ecologically friendly and socially minded Greens don’t go well with the professional pro-business style and fiscal stringency Lindner’s FDP likes to promote. On the other hand, both parties now fish in the same pond, equally targeting educated and city-dwelling young bourgeoisie.
So if your target electorate (or the girl you’re after) gets lots of compliments and niceties from other suitors and you are apparently not living up to your sweet coaxings, chances are you start feeling a bit cross — about God, the world and possibly even Mrs. Merkel.
And this is where things went badly wrong — for the Jamaica talks first and for the country, the EU later. With all her negotiating skills, Angela Merkel seemingly wasn’t able to accommodate the jealousies between a party asking big time to join a conservative of all cabinets and a party just back from the brink after four years without a single seat in the Bundestag. FDP leaders were anxious to show they were standing up for actual policies and values, not just for attaining seats at the Berlin cabinet table.
This way Merkel’s tried and tested concept of taking on the partner’s ideas, adopting and expanding on them didn’t work. Once you have too many contrasting and contradictory sides, one of them has to feel frustrated at some time. Considering further the FDP’s pressure to avoid even the faint impression of selling out, any power broker has to square too many circles to succeed.
Coming back to that lovely summer Meme, Merkel and her CDU seem to be like the bachelor torn between two beautiful girls: as we know since at least 18th Century Venice, juggling several liaisons amoureuses at once really requires the talent of a Giacomo Casanova. Trying to bring both into the same marriage was a risky business and — for the moment at least — backfired.
Where to go from here?
As of today 22 November the biggest bet is a rejuvenation of the old Grand Coalition between CDU and SPD, repeatedly ruled out by leading Social Democrats.
If this is really going ahead remains to be seen — the last two Merkel administrations saw the SPD drop to record lows, their participation in government doing nothing to help their popularity or showcasing their successes. Instead, being a junior partner in a Merkel coalition turned out to be a recipe for voter alienation while the Chancellor enjoys international acclaim as the new leader of Europe.
Especially Martin Schulz has been too busy telling people that they’re not available for any junior part in a coalition government. And they know they can’t play Merkel at her own game, the one she played so well over 12 years.
Any Grand Coalition 2.0 with different faces looks even more unlikely. Mrs. Merkel is fairly safe in the Chancellery for the time being.
Update: SPD prepared to support Minority government
Overnight, there has been mounting pressure on SPD-leader Martin Schulz to think again on his refusal to talk coalition with Angela Merkel and her CDU party.
On 23 Nov Bloomberg TV reported that SPD’s Martin Schulz stands prepared to support a minority government led by the current Chancellor, again ruling out any sort of neo-coalition with the German conservatives. Only two days later, pressure grows on SPD leaders to think twice about their refusal to enter into coalition with the German CDU-Conservatives.
Things are moving fast
Things are moving fast. And while Germany is certainly not in a state of chaos some commentators would like to see, old convictions and stern categorical refusals are not worth a dime come another development.
Merkel and “May’s Advantage”
Moreover, she also has what you might call “May’s Advantage”: people in charge knowing things will likely get a lot worse if you sack her.
And, while there may be several feasible candidates for the top job in Britain, German voters and press hacks alike are short of ideas when it comes to who should replace the long-time Chancellor, famous for being dull but steadfast and staying close to her constituents in rural Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
Therefore, getting a grip fast and showing the way may save just another day for Mrs. Merkel as German Chancellor. And the coalition? Well, to quote a senior party official speaking early on Friday “if it were that easy, just anybody could do it”. But please don’t be long.
