NBA Playoff Picks and Preview: Western Conference Edition
The Wonks Take on the Best of the West
It’s mid-April, which means that playoff basketball is finally here! With seeding in the Western Conference neatly wrapped up and the postseason set to begin Saturday, it’s time to preview each playoff series and make our picks for the first round of this year’s contest. Will there be any serious drama in this year’s first round or is all of this simply a pro forma exercise for Golden State and Cleveland to waltz their way back into the NBA Finals? The answer is yes (probably) but that shouldn’t necessarily translate into a lack of entertainment for casual fans before round two sets in.
With that said, I’ll preview each matchup as previously done on this site during the NFL’s postseason. Coming later this week, I’ll prognosticate on the outcomes of the more muddied playoff picture in the Eastern Conference.
Golden State Warriors (1) and Portland Trailblazers (8)
Regular Season: Warriors 4–0
These two teams met in the second round of the playoffs last season, with the Dubs taking the series after five games in a run that featured Steph Curry playing at less than a hundred percent against a scrappy Trailblazers squad that could shoot the 3 about as well as the Splash Bros. Since then, the Warriors retooled their roster by signing Kevin Durant while the Blazers mostly stayed the same, with the notable addition of Evan Turner and the midseason center swap of Mason Plumlee for Jusuf Nurkic, who powered the Blazers’ recent surge into the postseason.
Unfortunately for Portland, Nurkic now seems questionable to return for the Trailblazers after the center fractured his fibula in a late season win over the Houston Rockets. The Warriors meanwhile closed out the season with a 14-game win streak after losing five of eight contests over a 13 night period in early March. The Dubs now seem poised to reclaim the championship after last season’s collapse in the NBA Finals and Kevin Durant’s return to the starting lineup. Even with a possible return by Nurkic at some point in the series, he’ll likely encounter difficulty scoring while guarded by the Warriors all-purpose defensive player Draymond Green.
Final Pick: Warriors in five
San Antonio Spurs (2) and Memphis Grizzlies (7)
Regular Season: Split 2–2
San Antonio has had Memphis’s number in recent postseason history, sweeping the Grizz in last year’s first round and during the Western Conference Finals in 2013. While both teams enter this year’s playoffs with similar rosters to previous playoff series, one thing has notably changed: age. While Zach Randolph and Tony Allen have both lost a step since the prime years of Grit ’n’ Grind, the Grizzlies as a whole still possess great passing and have improved three-point shooting from point guard Mike Conley and center Marc Gasol under their new system under first-year coach Dave Fizdale to keep them competitive in close contests.
The Spurs on the other hand feature Tony Parker nearing 35 years of age and Manu Ginobili at 39 to support their star player in Kawhi Leonard. While they’re well coached and boast the best defensive rating per 100 possessions according to basketball-reference.com, the Spurs have a middling offense ranked 14th in the league and could become a problem if the Grizzlies put together a high-scoring performance. Expect some low-scoring games that could have gone either way.
Final Pick: Spurs in five
Houston Rockets (3) and Oklahoma City Thunder (6)
Regular Season: Rockets 3–1
If the thought of watching retreads of last year’s playoffs as referred to in the previously mentioned matchups bore you, then tune into this series instead. While it might not promise quality basketball built on beautiful passing and defensive play, this contest will provide simple fun with a clash between the two leading contenders for MVP. With Russell Westbrook surpassing Oscar Robertson’s record for triple-doubles recorded over a single season and James Harden’s transition to point guard, this series could clarify to viewers which player truly deserves the MVP trophy for the year, defensive ratings notwithstanding.
For the series, OKC should continue to feed Westbrook the ball and let him lead his team in scoring, assisting, and likely rebounding as a one-man wrecking crew who single-handedly brought up a middling roster to the postseason. However, Westbrook will have his handful guarding the beard and the Rockets’ live by the 3 and pick-n-roll ball-screen offense but a cold-shooting night could still doom Houston’s offense for a game or two.
Final Pick: Rockets in six
Los Angeles Clippers (4) and Utah Jazz (5)
Regular Season: Clippers 3–1
After waiting in the wilderness the past five seasons, the Jazz have finally returned to playoffs and boast the NBA’s leading defense in limiting the points scored by opponents. Now they’ll have to prove that their success can translate into the postseason and that this roster deserves continuity with star player Gordon Hayward on the cusp of free agency and Rudy Gobert’s defensive player of the year candidacy.
While the Jazz finally got in the door, the Clippers might be on their way out in year six of the CP3-Blake-DJ experience and the team’s ceiling well established as the second round of the playoffs. Admittedly, I haven’t seen enough of the Jazz this season to make a reasoned evaluation of this series but like in any other 4 and 5 seed matchup, I assume it’s gonna be a long drawn out contest to determine who faces Golden State in round two.
Final Pick: Clippers in seven
