Week 45, 2018
Farsighted Decision-Making: Mapping, Predicting, and Deciding
Each week I share three ideas for how to make work better. And this week, those ideas come courtesy of author Steven Johnson.
In his new book “Farsighted — How We Make the Decisions That Matter the Most”, Johnson explains that good decisions involve three steps:
1. Mapping
We make thousands of decisions each day. And while most are small and inconsequential, some are potentially life-changing. Complex decisions are complex because they involve a myriad of different variables: the known, the knowable unknowns, the inaccessible unknowns, and the unknown unknowns that are, and will forever remain, obscure. Bounded Rationality is the idea that we are limited to the information we have. It follows that the first step towards better decisions involve full spectrum analysis and the creation of metaphorical maps that explore as many variables, from as many viewpoints, as possible.
2. Predicting
When we make hard choices, we make predictions about the course of future events. And most of the time we don’t even realize we’re doing it. We day dream; allowing our “default network” to ruminate about what might be. This ability is unique to our species. It’s what makes us, us. But there’s a problem: we’re too easily swayed by fallacious arguments and cognitive biases. And that’s why the second step towards better decisions involve simulations. Tools like Premortems, Ensemble Forecasts, and Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) allow us to insert the right amount of rigor into the decision process.
3. Deciding
When done right, mapping and predicting should make the last and final step of the decision making process relatively straightforward. You either go with your gut or, if deeper analysis is warranted, use tools like Value Models or simple pro/con tables. But whatever you do, don’t go at it alone! The key to good decisions is diversity of thought. On this, the science is very clear: “The power of diversity is so strong it appears to apply even when [the people consulted] have no relevant expertise to the case at hand”. And so before you decide, don’t just seek expert advice. Seek layman advice too. And lots of it. Your decisions will benefit.
The ability to make complex decision will be a key skill for the future of work. Machine learning and AI will automate most everything else. Johnson ends his book with a passionate plea to bring decision making into the class room. We teach grammar, history, and maths etc., but few skills are as important as the ability to make hard choices. And so why isn’t the “art of deciding” also a core tenant of education? Indeed it should be.
