Week 31, 2019
Navigating Complexity: Systems, Turkeys, and Flywheels
Each week I share three ideas for how to make work better. And this week, those ideas are all geared towards helping us navigate an increasingly complex world.
Why am I writing about this? I’m currently preparing for a speaking engagement. And this time the topic is experimentation and continuous improvement. Here’s how I’m going to introduce the topic:
1. Complex Adaptive Systems
I’ve written about complexity before (e.g., w452018 and w102019). But the general idea is this: we like to think of our environment as being complicated because complicated things can be controlled. This is why we draw organizational charts with straight lines and clear hierarchies of authority etc. We desperately want to believe that we’re in charge. But deep down inside we know this is not true. Organizations, Economies, and Ecosystems are examples of Complex Adaptive Systems. They’re messy. And we just have to deal with it.
In Brave New Work, author Aaron Dignan makes the case that complexity can’t be controlled, only managed. For more on this, check out the book, my 3-part review thereof, or this blog post detailing Dignan’s proposed solution to the control/manage dilemma.
2. Turkey Problems
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the Black Swan and Antifragile etc., tells a cautionary tale about the fate that befalls turkeys on Thanksgiving: For 1,000 days, the turkey is feed by the farmer. And over the course of those 1,000 days, the turkey learns that with each day that passes, it’ll be given food, shelter, and the freedom to roam around. The turkey never stops to consider alternate scenarios (i.e., that it’s being fed for a reason) which is why it’s mightily surprising when Thanksgiving rolls around.
The moral of the story is this: in a complex environment, where things remain obscure and hidden from view, we too can fall victim to the Turkey Problem. For more on this, check out this BusinessInsider article.
3. Proverbial Flywheels
But it’s not all bad news. Because if we can learn to navigate complexity, we can harness what author Jim Collins calls The Flywheel Effect. A flywheel is a heavy revolving wheel used to capture and store momentum. It’s a machinery term, but the principle applies in business as well. Just think of Uber’s business model. It’s not linear. It’s a system. With feedback loops. And it makes perfectly clear how Uber’s growth engine works which, in turn, helps the organization focus its considerable resources where they can generate the most impact.
Mental models help us navigate complexity. And if we can validate these models through trial and error, we can use the learning to focus our attention and build momentum. For more, check out Collins’ new monograph on the subject.
Try as we might, we cannot control complexity. The only viable route forward is to navigate using a process of trial and error. Whether you call this process Lean, Agile, Design Thinking, or something else is beside the point. The crux of the matter is this: when you don’t know how the world works, you have to experiment.
If you play your cards right, you might be able to tap into the Flywheel Effect. If not, if you choose to do nothing, you might end up becoming a turkey. Either way, you’ll want to reconsider business as usual.
That’s all for this week.
Until next time, stay calm.
