Putting the 2024 Indian Elections Into Perspective
With Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the lead, the world’s largest democracy continues to channel the ambitions of its people while taking a more assertive role in global politics. India’s role and ambitions are opportunistic and realist in scope. They saw that China’s growth was fueled in large part by Western participation, and they’re determined to be the next Asian growth story. Many of the facts and figures undergirding their success support this. India has a young demographic, lifted millions out of poverty, and has formalized its economy over the years by setting up infrastructure that have made everything from digital payments to receiving government assistance a more seamless and efficient process for its 1.4 billion citizens.
Even as it remains closely aligned with Western multilateral partnerships, like the Quad, the country is also trying to challenge China as the leader of the Global South. While China is trying to rally emerging nations to upend the rules-based international order it views as out of step with changing times, India wants to enhance Global South representation within the existing order to better reflect demographic and economic realities. This highlights the perception that U.S. dominance has waned, and the Global South is increasingly assertive in securing a larger portion of the global economy. For instance, India has strengthened its ties in the Middle East, looking to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia for its energy needs. In return, India contributes significantly by supplying cheap, skilled labor to the Gulf economies. By fostering these kinds of symbiotic relationships, India will be on its way to achieving great power status, albeit at a slower pace than China thanks to deglobalization trends.
For India to continue its success, it must acknowledge the realities within and look to a future beyond Modi. The reality is that the country has been drifting rightward, toward greater Hindu nationalism, though it still retains a strong secular identity. It’s to be expected for a country whose population is 80% Hindu. It’s not too dissimilar to the U.S., a secular country with a religious right that has scored huge political victories. Additionally, India proclaims internationalism abroad while practicing nationalism at home, a contradiction that countries in the East will face as they reconcile the traditions and authenticity of their past with the progressive thinking and technology of the future.
As India’s foreign policy becomes intertwined with a nationalist outlook, it runs the risk of souring relations with its global allies and smaller neighbors ex-Pakistan. For example, it is not lost on the U.S. and Canada that it has, and attempted to, assassinate Sikh separatists on their soil or that it keeps close defense and energy ties to Russia in spite of Western sanctions. India is undeterred by what the West thinks of this. The West needs them for strategic and economic reasons, and in turn, they feel emboldened by this recognition. In the future, it may become increasingly harder for India to continue a policy of strategic autonomy and also be a leader on the world stage.
A big question then remains: what would Modi’s third term look like? Related to this question is what would India look like in the next decade post-Modi? He is about to achieve his third five-year term. Its citizens have a huge sense of pride in the country’s path even as Modi has suppressed dissent and weakened democratic institutions. However, he would also preside over what is expected to be the world’s third largest economy by 2027 and he enjoys the support of the country’s global diaspora. Nevertheless, there remain challenges in its horizon that may affect its ability to project a unified image globally. India’s political and cultural pluralism is under attack while large regional disparities between the wealthy south and rural, more populous north remain. Notably, not one of the southern states — which contains India’s high-tech and manufacturing sectors and is more ethnically diverse and progressive — is controlled by the BJP, a clear rejection of Modi’s Hindu-centric identity politics. An overconfident India willing to take greater political and diplomatic risks could follow the same course as China in resorting to provocation and wolf-warrior tactics. Combine this with long-standing religious and ethnic conflict and India runs the risk of undoing a lot of its economic and social progress over the past decade. Furthermore, climate change is exacerbating extreme heat, an existential threat in South Asia.
Overall, India has the opportunity to thwart China’s bid to lead the Global South, which many of its 970 million registered voters recognize. And while India looks poised to lead global cooperation on many fronts, it must look inwardly as well as recognize that it operates in a highly constrained foreign policy environment.
