Understanding the U.S.-China Rivalry
Two months ago, China appeared humbled by the coronavirus epidemic in Wuhan. Its authoritarian government botched its initial response to the disease by concealing it from the public, and the highly draconian measures that it eventually imposed to contain the outbreak alarmed observers around the world. A critic from the Wall Street Journal even went so far as to label China the “Sick Man of Asia,” a visceral reference to the country’s weakness and colonization during the 19th century. Today however, the tables have been completely turned. China’s stringent measures to contain the virus have paid off, and it reported no new local infections a week ago. The United States and Europe, on the other hand, are being overwhelmed by the pandemic. Capitalizing on the West’s weakness, China has emerged as the global leader in the fight against the virus. The incredible reversal in the leadership roles of China and the U.S. in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic is emblematic of China’s growing geopolitical influence, something that carries titanic significance for U.S. policymakers.
China’s spectacular growth over the past three decades has awed the globe, and managing this new phenomenon is one of the U.S. government’s most pressing international challenges. China does not pose a direct military threat to the U.S, but its growing economic clout and geopolitical influence heralds a new era of competition between the two powers. First, this article will analyze the importance of China’s explosion onto the international stage, and then, it will offer predictions about the U.S.-China rivalry, finding that China is primarily a geopolitical and economic, not a military, competitor.
China’s explosion onto the international stage has rightly alarmed policymakers in Washington. By some measures, China’s GDP has already overtaken that of the United States, and its massive “Made in China 2025” program directly competes with U.S. high-tech manufacturing. Moreover, under President Xi Jinping, China has turned itself into a geopolitical juggernaut, amassing influence in Africa and Central and Southeast Asia through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and militarizing the South China Sea. With its growing economic capacity and geopolitical influence, China is the only country able to credibly compete with the U.S.
The emergence of new powers in the international system is incredibly destabilizing, making the rise of China a clear challenge to U.S. leadership. For example, Germany’s increasing strength during the first half of the 20th century destabilized the international system and played a major role in causing both World War I and II. As China continues to grow and assert itself in a U.S. dominated international order, tension between the United States and China appears inevitable. Being the world’s two largest economies, the interactions between the U.S. and China have a significant impact on U.S. citizens and U.S. policy. President Trump’s Trade War, and the fallout it has had in the United States, is an ominous prelude to this new era of conflict.
However, many dismiss the threat posed by China. Some argue that China’s rise is an apparition, and that its poor demographics and mounting debt will cripple it. This point has merit, and will slow China’s growth, but it seems foolish to write-off one of the world’s largest economies and a nation of 1.4 billion people. Moreover, the U.S. should not be rooting for a Chinese economic downturn. If the Chinese economy were to stall, the country’s communist party leadership could promote nationalist sentiment at home and pursue alarming policies abroad (like aggression towards Taiwan) to distract its population from economic hardship. This would prove even more problematic to U.S. interests. Additionally, pundits might point to malicious actors like Russia and Iran as greater international problems. But while efforts by Iran and Russia to expand their regional influence are deeply menacing, neither of these countries has the strength to compete with the U.S. globally. China, on the other hand, does have the resources to challenge U.S. influence, something its leadership in the coronavirus pandemic is demonstrating.
How should the U.S. interpret China’s rise? Thankfully, a realist analysis reveals that China has little incentive to compete with the U.S. militarily, and China’s connections to the global economy further reduce the likelihood of military conflict with the United States. Despite this, China’s growing influence means that for the United States, intense geopolitical competition with China is certain.
On face, examining China’s rise from a realist perspective is unnerving. Realism argues that the international system exists in a state of anarchy that causes states to value security and anticipate the worst possible outcomes. It predicts that states will seek to balance the power of other states, and that states will rarely cooperate with one another. Under these assumptions, China would feel threatened by the possibility of U.S. aggression, and as a result would increase the size of its military to secure itself. This would make the U.S. less secure, leading to a potentially deadly military escalation.
However, China’s military has yet to even come close to matching the strength of that of the U.S. This is because probabilistically, China has little reason to expect U.S. military aggression. Geographically, China is separated from the U.S. by the Pacific Ocean, making a U.S. invasion of China unlikely. Technologically, China’s arsenal of cruise missiles gives it a defensive edge against U.S. forces in the South China Sea. These factors bolster Chinese security and make it unnecessary for it to match the military strength of the United States. Moreover, even if China was inclined to balance the U.S, the global superiority of the U.S. military is so great that any effort to balance it would be herculean. Therefore, realism suggests that a military conflict between the U.S. and China is unlikely.
Moreover, China’s connections to the global economy discourage a military rivalry with the U.S. Many scholars argue that trade linkages between states promote peace because states will be reluctant to sacrifice their gains from trade in a conflict. The U.S. and China, as each other’s largest trading partners, are unlikely to go to war for this reason. Additionally, globalization has made it more difficult for states to war with one another. With production taking place all over the world, war would disrupt international supply chains, making production more difficult and exacting a huge economic toll. Next, international relations scholars argue that today, multinational corporations can obtain resources for a country more effectively than conquest can, diminishing the importance of military adventurism. It is telling that many of the Chinese policies that worry the U.S. most are tied to its massive investments in the developing world through programs like BRI, not its military actions. China’s rise should not be interpreted by the U.S. as a military threat, however its growing economy and role on the international stage make it a clear economic and geopolitical rival.
The rise of China is an intimidating economic and geopolitical challenge. As discussed earlier, Chinese economic initiatives like “Made in China 2025” threaten high-tech U.S. industries and require intervention by the U.S. government. Geopolitically, China’s continued push for influence in Europe and in developing countries through programs like BRI requires a global response. Though a far-fetched prospect under the Trump Administration, the U.S. should strengthen its engagement with the world to provide alternatives to Chinese domination. Rejoining the Trans-Pacific Partnership, enhancing cooperation with Europe and important players in Asia like India and Japan, and building organizations with allies to fund the development Africa are important steps the U.S. could take to strengthen faith in its leadership and make the world less likely to fall under China’s sway. Ultimately, meeting the challenge posed by China isn’t just about preserving U.S. influence and keeping U.S. industries competitive, it’s about ensuring that free societies continue to offer alternatives to authoritarianism around the world.
