BUDS Challenge Mini Project — An Analysis of historical Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Data in focus: Greenhouse gas inventory data

Abstract: Presented here is the analysis of GHG emission data for the Annex 1 countries of the UNFCCC which gives insight into national GHG emissions, thus highlighting major producers and indicating starting points for action and appropriate policies. The data shows how GHG emissions are influenced by international events, such as the most recent economic recession, and also by internationally agreed goals and plans of actions.

Data Description: The data depict anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas (GHGs) emissions without Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULU CF) in kilo-tonne CO2 equivalent for a total of 26 years (1990–2015) for the 43 Annex 1 countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This country list includes the industrialized countries that were members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 1992 as well as economies in transition.

Rationale for the chosen data set: We decided to focus on GHG emissions due to their high impact, which is mainly to be found in what is commonly known as Global Warming. Carbon dioxide, methane and other gases, human activities such as burning of fossil fuels and cutting down trees have intensified trapping of heat in the Earth’s atmosphere, leading to a rise in the Earth’s total temperature by 0.75C (1.4 F) over the past century. Other effects of GHG emissions are ocean acidification, changes to plant growth and nutrition levels, smog and ozone pollution, ozone layer depletion.

Study and Analysis: Given that the data has a restricted geographical representation and focus mostly on developed countries (e.g. European countries, and the USA), our analysis will operate within these constraints. Overall, the data suggest a decline in the total GHG emissions in the featured countries (excluding overall EU emissions) over the years:

This finding is not surprising, taking into account that the countries that form part of the data set and of the UNFCCC Annex 1 all have been supportive of the internationally agreed UN climate goals. A further comparison with other countries would certainly be of interest; however, the current analysis is focused on the given data set.

The first years up until 1994 saw a sharp decline in GHG emissions, which can be explained with lower emissions in various sectors, such as industry¹. A period of increase over the next years, is followed by a sharp decline of GHG emissions in the year 2009, which can be attributed to the economic recession in those years². Furthermore, the decline most probably is linked to international treaties aiming to reduce GHG emissions, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the more recent Paris Agreement.

Distribution of Average Emission: The distribution of average overall emissions also reflects this decline, with the median being at 544,710. It’s also good to see that with an increasing number of environmental hazards, the recent years see more efforts to reduce GHG emissions.

Mapping: For a better understanding of the data and to distinguish high-emitting vs. low-emitting countries, we chose to visualize the data on a world map with colour-coding of the average national GHG emission. The map reflects the fact that only certain countries, mostly European and the North American countries form part of the data set. The USA is seen to have the highest average emissions shown in color dark red.

A continent-wise plotting underlines these tendencies. North American region is seen to have the highest of all emissions.

Overall, the data set supports international climate change action, highlighting countries and regions with great potential for a reduction in GHG emissions and thus giving indications for appropriate climate change policies.

To further our analysis, we decided to look at the national trends in GHG emissions (increase/decrease as percentages) over three decades: 1990 to 2000 (blue), 2000 to 2010 (orange) and 2010 to 2015 (yellow).

Comparing the three decades, it can be noted that the earliest decade saw an approximately equal distribution of increase and decrease in GHG emissions across the countries of the data set; the following two decades, however, saw a shift in focus on decreasing GHG emissions.

Looking at the historical GHG emissions by country over the past 25 years, the USA definitely sticks out due to its exceptionally high emissions. Bringing the focus to the USA, recent efforts such as investments in electric vehicles (Tesla), production of natural gas instead of burning coal and the solar energy project³ puts them in good standing to reduce their GHG over the next few years.

Nevertheless, these efforts might be derailed with the recent administration withdrawing from the Paris Agreement⁴. While there are still efforts from the 14 alliance states⁵ in reducing GHG emissions it remains to be seen how all these will affect the USA’s GHG emissions in the future.

For a detailed outlook, we decided to look into average emissions from the USA. The data show a constant increase in GHG emissions up until 2008, when the economic depression hit. The following years under the Obama administration and policies aimed at reducing GHG emissions are characterized by a decline.

Following information and data published by the United States Environmental Protection Agency, the declining trend has continued in the following years. This is attributed to “a decrease in emissions from fossil fuel combustion, which was a result of multiple factors including substitution from coal to natural gas consumption in the electric power sector, also warmer winter conditions that reduced demand for heating fuel in the residential and commercial sectors”⁶.

Conclusion: Overall, there has been a declining trend in GHG emissions over the past 25 years. Zooming in on the USA as a main producer of GHG emissions, the impact of national politics on emissions becomes visible.

Technological advancements present a potential for a greater rate of reducing GHG emissions in the future, provided a supportive political climate. Notably, not only politics influence GHG emissions; we as individuals have to play a part in protecting the environment as every small effort is still significant as a whole.

This analysis takes a rather narrow focus due to time constraints; a more extended analysis would certainly add more context and insights to the above results.

References:
[1] European Environment Agency (2014): Why did greenhouse gas emissions decrease in the EU between 1990 and 2012? URL: https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/why-are-greenhouse-gases-decreasing/file

[2] European Environment Agency (2010): Recession accelerates the decline in EU greenhouse gas emissions. URL: https://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/recession-accelerates-the-decline-in.

[3] Igusky et al (2014): By the Numbers: How the U.S. Economy Can Benefit from Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions. In: World Resources Institute. URL: http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/10/numbers-how-us-economy-can-benefit-reducing-greenhouse-gas-emissions

[4] U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement: Reasons, impacts, and China’s response. (2017, September 27). Retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927817301028

[5] Plumer, B. (2017, September 20). How Can U.S. States Fight Climate Change if Trump Quits the Paris Accord? Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/20/climate/paris-climate-accord-trump.html

[6] United States Environmental Protection Agency..Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Retrieved from https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions

This project was done as part of the Mini Project Initiative at Bertelsmann Data Science Udacity Scholarship by Geowynn Teoh, Naveena Benjamin and Bettina Benzinger