Changing weather, a challenge for California almond growers

Around 80% of the world’s almond supply is grown in California. The advanced management practices result in high yielding crops and profitable business for growers, as well as for investors. Most varieties of almond trees require specific climatic conditions to grow vigorously. Ideal conditions are cold winters, wet springs, and dry summers — especially at the time of harvest.

Changing climate patterns are expected to intensify in the coming years. Perennial crops such as almonds are less adaptable compared to annual crops, this is associated with the long-lasting development cycle of trees and their extended life span (around 25 years for almond trees). Research has shown that from the various tree crops grown in California, almond orchards are particularly vulnerable to changes in climate conditions.

Analysis of California historical weather data show that changes in climate are already happening. For example, in recent years the increase in winter temperatures has resulted in a reduced number of chilling hours which are necessary in almond trees to a successful uniform blooming.

Growers are already noticing weather events that were not common a decade ago, these include erratic rainfall distribution (sometimes too much, some others not enough); fast melting of the snowpack in the Sierra and Cascade mountain ranges; increased water use due to high temperatures; and late spring frosts. These events result in either reduced yields or increased farm operation costs. Yield losses associated with adverse weather events were estimated to reduce yields around 17% just in 2019.

For all these reasons above, it is recommended that farmers engage in weather mitigation strategies, a topic we will be covering in a future blog post. One of the best strategies is to hedge against bad weather using insurance.

CropAssure Almond by WorldCover is leveraging satellite imagery and next-generation gridded weather models by NOAA and ECMWF to help almond growers hedge their risks against unpredictable weather using insurance. WorldCover has used its agronomic modelling expertise to develop a product for almond farmers in California, you can learn more on our website worldcovr.com.

Additional reads

Lobell, D.B., Field, C.B., Cahill, K.N., Bonfils, C., 2006. Impacts of future climate change on California perennial crop yields: model projections with climate and crop uncertainties. Agric. For. Meteorol. 141, 208–218. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.10.006

USDA, 2020, California Almond Objective Measurement Report. Available at: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/California/Publications/Specialty_and_Other_Releases/Almond/Objective-Measurement/202007almom.pdf

https://oehha.ca.gov/epic/changes-climate/annual-air-temperature