In Defense of Maybe?
The admission of a definite security guarantee to the nation-state of Taiwan by the US has long been a contentious issue throughout the state and into Taiwan as well. Indeed, when President Biden declared on October 21st that the United States would come to the defense of the small island nation. However, the White House quickly later backtracked, stating officially that the US holds no such international policy within its hand. Indeed, it does not. When it comes to cross-strait relations, the US has followed a deliberate policy of strategic ambiguity for the past fifty years. For the US, the premise is quite simple: the US does not explicitly state whether it would come to the defense of Taiwan in the event of an attack, leaving the possibility up to the foreign adversary to figure out. While there is a growing local population that calls for such a security guarantee to put into explicit words, this is not however in the best interest of the US or Taiwan. I believe that locally, the Taiwanese people and government should support this policy, to ensure the security of the state for the short and the long term.
Culture and History: Taiwan has had a tumultuous history, in its short history as a pseudo country in the world’s eyes. Being first settled by indigenous peoples over 6000 years ago, Taiwan in recent years has seen its control passed on from Colonial Spanish and Netherlands to dynastic China, Imperial Japan, and finally the Republic of China, which rules the island today. Even within the segment of ROC’s rule, its history is storied, with periods of boom and bust. Starting out under martial law, the government remained under a dictatorship for over 20 years, enjoying the support of the US as it became a stalwart against communism under the Cold War era. Afterward, Taiwan underwent what is now known as the “Taiwan miracle” in which the economy rapidly developed as well as its democracy. Today, Taiwan holds a strong economy as thriving democracy.
Military/Geopolitical Posturing:
The People’s Republic of China (Mainland China) views Taiwan as a breakaway state to this date. It believes and has in its own policy that the government will eventually forcibly or peacefully reabsorb Taiwan to make a full China. Significant amounts of propaganda are put out in order to ensure that the population gives its hearty support to this policy. As China’s military power has been growing, its power now rivals the US, and as such its becoming increasingly aggressive in its cross straight exercises, sending flight sorties and training exercises deep into the maritime area that the Taiwanese claim as their own. Even current flights are sent deep into the ADIZ- or the air defense identification Zone. This leaves the Taiwanese people increasing worried over the defense of the nation over the PLA.
