International Travel: Unrealistic Expectation of Resuming Pre-pandemic Level
“Mask mandated,” “Prepare to present proof of vaccination,” “72 hours negative COVID-19 test result required.” We have been getting used to these phrases in the past two years. While we seek ways to end this pandemic as soon as possible, wearing a mask and showing proof of vaccination has become the new normal for us. International travels, which were once as simple as buying an airline ticket and going to the airport, have become impractical due to constantly changing testing policies and border restrictions. Some people may argue that since many countries are reopening their borders and welcoming travelers, international travel will quickly restore to normal as the good old time. However, due to the impact of such a prolonged pandemic, I argue that international travel can barely resume to the pre-pandemic level in the foreseeable future. The dramatic change in people’s lifestyle and workstyle makes it unnecessary for plenty of people to travel internationally as well as current policies are unfavorable for travelers to cross borders.
On January 30, 2020, WHO declared the outbreak of COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the novel coronavirus originating in China in 2019, a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). (Kiernan and DeVita) Since then, travel restrictions have been imposed by many countries, attempting to contain the spread of the virus. The United States, for example, banned all foreigners who have been to China in the past 14 days to enter the country, one day after WHO has announced PHEIC, and this ban was not lifted until November 8, 2021. These border control exercises have eliminated the possibilities for leisure travel internationally and permanently changed business travel patterns.
Some countries like China are throttling international air flights to contain imported COVID cases from other countries as part of border controls. As a result, the astronomical price of international airline tickets prevents people from returning to their global travel routines or even going back home. Nowadays, a round-trip ticket from Los Angeles, California to Guangzhou, China, can cost $6,000, while the price of a similar ticket cost merely one-tenth the price back in December 2019. Additionally, a 14-day hotel quarantine and 7-day home quarantine are mandated when arriving in China. Both factors make international travel timely and moneywise to such countries impracticable.
While some may argue that controlling incoming international air flights help these countries implement their Zero-COVID policies, it has impeded the recovery of international travel. Michael Boyd, president of aviation consulting firm Boyd Group International, estimated that “while 8 million people flew between the U.S. and China in 2016, he predicted that in 2022, there will be fewer than 1 million.” (Ben-Achour) In other words, international travel has been essentially suspended between these two major economies. Under such circumstances, almost all leisure travelers give up their travel plans, and business travelers occasionally travel on these transpacific flights. Many people cannot reunite with their families since they cannot afford the astronomical prices that airline companies charge. Despite containing the spread of COVID, it reveals that restraining international flights make the world a more insular place and, therefore, slows the trend of increasing globalization.
As the virus evolves, various companies have started to utilize hybrid working modes, where employees can freely choose to work from home or work in the office. Many Internet companies even completely adjusted to working from home, and the shift dramatically impacted business persons’ willingness to travel internationally. Before the pandemic, with various conferences held offline, it was common for thousands of people from the globe to travel to places like Thailand or Las Vegas just for the conference. However, with the travel restrictions in place, these conferences have moved online and will hardly move offline in the foreseeable future, most likely hybrid. As David Faris described it, “The days of lighting a thousand pounds of jet fuel on fire flitting halfway around the world to give an hour-long conference presentation might be over for a while.” In other words, flying 10,000 miles internationally just for a business conference was the old normal. By the shape of the pandemic and advancement of technology, the new standard will more likely be that the presenter will log onto Zoom and give the presentation online. As people’s work style has been permanently changed due to the pandemic’s impact, international travel long-distance becomes unnecessary and costly, even in a post-pandemic era. With the status quo, international travel for business travelers can hardly resume the pre-pandemic level, with companies reluctant to pay for thousands of traveling fees when they can attend a conference online.
Admittedly, the increase in vaccination rate, especially in developed countries, encourages many people to urge the immediate resumption of international travel and termination of COVID-restraint policies. Indeed, effective vaccinations have eased the spread and symptoms of the virus and dramatically reduced hospitalization rates. As a result, many countries seek to reopen their borders and welcome travelers back. Sweden, for instance, announced that “the pandemic is over,” meanwhile lifted Covid restrictions and ended mass testing. (Ahlander)
However, while lifting all COVID-related restrictions sound prominent and give people the hope of resuming pre-pandemic life, COVID-19 itself does not disappear. As of the case of Sweden, Swedish hospitals “were still feeling the strain,” and the cases drop is partially due to the reduction of free testing earlier this month, which effectively stopped from Wednesday. (Ahlander) To put it another way, it is not the cases in Sweden that have dramatically dropped. On the contrary, they stop testing it, so they do not know the exact number of cases. Rather than saying countries like Sweden have “defeated” COVID-19, it appears more like they concede in fighting COVID-19 and reallocate their resources into other fields.
While this practice may work for wealthy countries in Northern Europe, it is not applicable and appropriate for most countries in the world to give up. Poorer countries in the developing world may not get their citizens vaccinated until late next year at the earliest. (Faris) Despite rapid development in aviation in these developing countries before the outbreak, the pandemic has messed it up. In sub-Saharan Africa, the year-to-date change in international tourist arrivals dipped by 76.4 percent, signifying a negative pandemic effect. (Sasu) Simply put, the gap scattered across the spectrum is too distinct for all countries to make a unanimous resumption to pre-pandemic level international travel. Therefore, the trend towards increasing globalization is hindered due to the hardship of fully resuming cross-border travels.
International travels are slowly resuming, and people are on board again. However, because of many countries’ continued strict border control, astronomical airline ticket prices, change of workstyle, and ineffectiveness of distributing vaccines around the globe, resuming international travel is still a privilege of some most developed countries. As the pandemic has permanently shaped our human society as a whole, international travel can hardly resume to the pre-pandemic level in the foreseeable future. Since international travels and tourism remain vital signs of globalization, increasing globalization at the beginning of the century may have been slowed or obstructed. The new normal after the pandemic could be more interactions online instead of in-person cross-border travels.
Works Cited
Ahlander, Johan. “‘It’s over’: Sweden Lifts Covid Restrictions and Ends Mass Testing.” The Independent, 9 Feb. 2022, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/sweden-lifts-covid-restrictions-testing-b2011574.html.
Ben-Achour, Sabri. “As the US and China Cancel Flights, the Market ‘Is Dead.’” Marketplace, 17 Feb. 2022, https://www.marketplace.org/2022/02/16/as-u-s-and-china-bicker-over-flights-the-market-is-dead/.
Faris, David. “Did the Pandemic End Globalization?” The Week, https://theweek.com/articles/968858/did-pandemic-end-globalization. Accessed 15 Feb. 2022.
Karabell, Zachary. “Will the Coronavirus Bring the End of Globalization? Don’t Count on It.” Wall Street Journal, 20 Mar. 2020. www.wsj.com, https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-the-coronavirus-bring-the-end-of-globalization-dont-count-on-it-11584716305.
Kiernan, Samantha, and Madeleine DeVita. “Travel Restrictions on China Due to COVID-19 | Think Global Health.” Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/travel-restrictions-china-due-covid-19. Accessed 23 Feb. 2022.
Sasu, Doris. • Africa: YTD Change in Tourist Arrivals in Africa 2021 | Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1193514/year-to-date-change-in-tourist-arrivals-in-africa-by-sub-region/. Accessed 23 Feb. 2022.
