Will the pandemic end the trend towards increasing globalization?
Globalization has been an ever-expanding phenomenon in humanity since transportation was invented. From trading in places like the spice route and silk road thousands of years ago to cargo ships and planes transporting goods and machinery today, its growing presence has always been there and is something that has become a part of humanity. I believe that this trend is something that will continue expanding and the covid-19 pandemic was just a period of anomalies that will have no harsh effect on the upward/increasing trend of globalisation. However, many believe due to recently experienced reductions in globalization and global interconnectivity that this phenomenon is now here for the long run. This being a very valid argument as the colossal shocks of the pandemic on the globe as a whole is not something that is easy to recover from.
One such example of something that may seem irreversible is the effect of the pandemic on tourism, an industry which for many countries accounts for a significant chunk of their GDP. This is a very valid point that David Farris also brings up in his article “Did the Pandemic End Globalization” which he wrote for ‘The Week’. He says that there was a 74% decline between global travel in 2020 and 2019. Additionally, he claims that experts believe travel is unlikely to reach previous heights till 2023/2024. It is without doubt that the short-term future for travel and tourism can be seen as bleak. However, I believe that this is no grounds to base a hypothesis on whether this is the end of globalization. As Farris himself says the global economy and trade post World War two felt a similar shock, but did it “end” Globalization? By a decade after the war the global economy and world trade had reached new heights surpassing any seen before. Mirroring this, after a couple of years of revived global economies and worldwide vaccinated populations I believe it is fair to predict travel and trade to reach and then surpass the level we had reached pre-pandemic. Although this argument bases the projection of a net growth of globalization in the future on previous trends, there are many more real-world reasons as to why globalization is destined to continue its upward trend.
Yes, the pandemic raised questions regarding global dependency as countries experienced shortages of goods and services due to reduced transportation. However, is a two-year anomaly a viable reason for corporations to stop saving the billions of dollars they do on outsourcing manufacturing and materials to other countries? As Richard Fontaine says in his article “Globalization Will Look Very Different After the coronavirus Pandemic”, globalization has resulted in significant improvements in living standards, inequality and GDP growth. This is something that almost nobody is willing to risk throwing away. Additionally, Fontaine goes on to say how the responses to the pandemic were all national while the problem is international. This can be seen as a negative and can result in the promotion of even further globalization and global interconnectivity. This is as it only makes sense for such an interconnected world to face global issues such as the pandemic as a global issue instead of a national one. For example, if the pandemic was handled globally, where all countries did a simultaneous lockdown and all countries pooled together resources to find a vaccine, the scale of the problem we are facing today would one that is significantly smaller. Therefore, it is far more likely that globalization continues its growing trend after the pandemic: although, as said by Fontaine, this globalization could be different.
One important thing to consider is countries that are not global superpowers like the US and China. This is as smaller countries are highly reliant on such countries in many aspects such as political protection, trade and tourism. Although these superpowers are also unlikely to have the capabilities to be self-sufficient, these smaller countries are largely reliant on other countries for the growth of their economy. For example, in 2019 34.7% of Jamaica’s GDP came from tourism[1]. This is a staggeringly large figure that just about encapsulates the reliance of smaller countries on the level of globalization the world has experienced in the last few decades. Additionally, 18.93% of Bangladesh’s GDP is manufacturing[2] out of which a significant proportion is international companies outsourcing to Bangladesh. With these smaller ‘global south’ countries as well as the world in general having increasing population and consumerism, a country itself will find it impossible to be self-sufficient. Therefore, with the trend of global relations and social problems it is almost certain that the world cannot sustain the lifestyles people are used without an increasing rate of globalization. People all around (especially first world countries) the globe have got used to the chain of consumerism where products from around the world is available within a one-mile radius from you. This is something that won’t allow the reversal of Globalization to be an option.
In addition to this, technology has resulted in the world being far more connected. People are able to purchase goods and services from all over the world and get it shipped to their homes. The use of online markets has resulted in a significant increase in globalization and has kept the world extremely interconnected. This is important to consider as especially during the pandemic, delivery and online purchases removed the risk of covid from doing everyday tasks such as buying groceries and shopping for clothes. Additionally, this has and will now have a long term effect as people have become heavily reliant on online shopping as it is convenient for consumers. Therefore many people will continue to use these online services even after the pandemic. This will result in further increase in globalization as people continue to buy things from overseas in the future. Although the pandemic has also taught us that travel is far less necessary to connect with people as businesses were able to run and meetings were able to be conducted on zoom. This will result in reduced business travelers. However, the increase in trade technology has brought us makes up for what globalization has lost in travel. Therefore, it is fairly evident that the increased use of technology and online shopping services will result in globalization to be sustained or even increased after the pandemic.
In conclusion, taking a variety of factors from economies of scale to the extent of global consumerism proves that globalization is a process that has no long-term trajectory other than an upward one. Pandemics have occurred countless times in the past and as much of a hinderance they cause for global interconnectivity, once they pass over the upward trajectory has always continued. This is due to what I had mentioned before as well, it is near impossible to sustain current standards of living as well as improve standards of living around the globe without globalization.
Bibliography
Fontaine, Richard. Foreignpolicy.com. 04/17/2020. Globalization will look very different after the covid 19 pandemic.
Faris, David. TheWeek.com. 02/05/2021. Did the Pandemic End Globalization.
[1] https://knoema.com/atlas/Jamaica/topics/Tourism/Travel-and-Tourism-Total-Contribution-to-GDP/Contribution-of-travel-and-tourism-to-GDP-percent-of-GDP#:~:text=In%202019%2C%20contribution%20of%20travel,)%20for%20Jamaica%20was%2034.7%20%25.
[2] https://tradingeconomics.com/bangladesh/manufacturing-value-added-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html#:~:text=Manufacturing%2C%20value%20added%20(%25%20of%20GDP)%20in%20Bangladesh%20was%20reported,compiled%20from%20officially%20recognized%20sources.
