WP2 Final Draft: Is International Travel Ever Resuming to Pre-pandemic Normal?
“Mask mandated,” “Prepare to present proof of vaccination,” “72 hours negative COVID-19 test result required.” We have been getting used to these phrases in the past two years. While we seek ways to end this pandemic as soon as possible, wearing a mask and showing proof of vaccination has become the new normal for us. International travels, which were once as simple as buying an airline ticket and going to the airport, have become impractical due to constantly changing testing policies and border restrictions. Some people may argue that since many countries are reopening their borders and welcoming travelers, international travel will quickly restore to normal as the good old time. However, international travel can hardly resume to the pre-pandemic level in the foreseeable future because of disapproving policies and the permanent change in people’s travel patterns. The trend towards a more interconnected world is over given the hardship of resuming global travel as it is an indispensable factor of global economic and cultural exchange.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, various border control policies have been implemented to mitigate the pandemic. While these border control exercises somehow slow down the transmission of the pandemic, they have dramatically changed the airline industry. Many flights must be canceled due to decreased number of passengers and the control of air flight numbers, making many airline companies have budget deficits or even bankrupt. For instance, some countries like China are throttling international air flights to contain imported COVID cases from other countries as part of border controls. As a result, the number of flights allowed arriving in and departing from these countries are strictly limited, which makes flying to them highly unaffordable. Nowadays, a round-trip ticket from Los Angeles, California to Guangzhou, China, can cost $6,000, while the price of a similar ticket cost merely one-tenth the price back in December 2019. A 14-day hotel quarantine and 7-day home quarantine are also mandated when arriving in China. Both factors make international travel timely and moneywise to such countries impracticable from an individual’s perspective. Thus, the airline companies can hardly have a surplus on their accounting sheets and maintain pre-pandemic level operations.
Consequently, international travel is struggling to resume even half of the pre-pandemic level. Various global travelers are canceling their flight plans. Michael Boyd, president of aviation consulting firm Boyd Group International, estimated that “while 8 million people flew between the U.S. and China in 2016, he predicted that in 2022, there will be fewer than 1 million.” (Ben-Achour) In other words, international travel has been essentially suspended between these two major economies. Under such circumstances, almost all leisure travelers give up their travel plans, and business travelers occasionally travel on these transpacific flights. Despite containing the spread of COVID, air flight throttling exercises prevent most passengers from traveling into other countries, impeding the resumption of cultural exchanges and trade opportunities. Such a trend makes the earth more insular and gradually changes people’s mindsets.
Even worse, the pandemic may have permanently changed business travel patterns. As the virus evolves, various companies have started to utilize hybrid working modes, where employees can freely choose to work from home or work in the office. Many Internet companies even completely adjusted to working from home, and the shift dramatically impacted businesspersons’ willingness to travel internationally. Before the pandemic, with various conferences held offline, it was common for thousands of people from the globe to travel to places like Thailand or Las Vegas just for the conference. However, with the travel restrictions in place, these conferences have moved online and will hardly move offline in the foreseeable future, most likely hybrid. As David Faris described it, “The days of lighting a thousand pounds of jet fuel on fire flitting halfway around the world to give an hour-long conference presentation might be over for a while.” In other words, flying 10,000 miles internationally just for a business conference was the old normal. By the shape of the pandemic and advancement of technology, the new standard will more likely be that the presenter will log onto Zoom and give the presentation online. As people’s work style has been permanently changed due to the pandemic’s impact, international travel long-distance becomes unnecessary and costly, even in a post-pandemic era. With the status quo, international travel for business travelers can hardly resume the pre-pandemic level, with companies reluctant to pay for thousands of traveling fees when they can attend a conference online.
In terms of leisure travel, people are more likely to find domestic destinations as replacements for tropical countries nowadays. While traveling to Thailand or Maldives as an escape from cold winters was a standard option in the old time, it was common for people living in the U.S. to find domestic substitutes, such as Florida. As of the second quarter in 2021, the number of U.S. tourists who came to Florida has returned to pre-pandemic levels, though the international market is still lagging. (Bloomberg) In other words, despite higher service prices than in Thailand, U.S. tourists still come to domestic destinations. This trend indicates that tourists are freighted by constantly changing travel restrictions, testing policies, and vaccine requirements. With the virus still widely spreading worldwide, people travel to domestic destinations as safer options.
As a matter of the fact that international travels can hardly resume to the pre-pandemic era level in the foreseeable future, ongoing permanent changes are shifting the trend of increasing globalization. Oversea tourism was once a crucial part of many countries’ economies, and it has almost gone, given the status quo. With the dramatic reduction in international travel, cultural and economic exchanges have been impeded. Such trends shift people’s mindset gradually as international travel has become troublesome and thus unnecessary. While people can attend conferences on Zoom and take vacations in domestic destinations, the indispensability of international travel is challenged. Thus, people will be unwilling to travel internationally as before, even if the COVID-19 virus is completely eradicated in the future.
Admittedly, the increase in vaccination rate, especially in developed countries, encourages many people to urge the immediate resumption of international travel and termination of COVID-restraint policies. Indeed, effective vaccinations have eased the spread and symptoms of the virus and dramatically reduced hospitalization rates. As a result, many countries seek to reopen their borders and welcome travelers back. Sweden, for instance, announced that “the pandemic is over,” meanwhile lifted Covid restrictions and ended mass testing. (Ahlander)
However, while lifting all COVID-related restrictions sound prominent and gives people the hope of resuming pre-pandemic life, they cannot solve the problem itself. As of the case of Sweden, Swedish hospitals “were still feeling the strain,” and the cases drop is partially due to the reduction of free testing earlier this month, which effectively stopped from Wednesday. (Ahlander) To put it another way, it is not the cases in Sweden that have dramatically dropped. On the contrary, they stop testing it, so they do not know the exact number of cases. Rather than saying countries like Sweden have “defeated” COVID-19, it appears more like they concede in fighting COVID-19 and reallocate their resources into other fields. People are still confronted with the threats from the virus and may think twice about their international travel plans.
Some international travels are resuming gradually, but as border control exercises remain in place, global travel is still a privilege for a selected number of people. As the pandemic has permanently shaped people’s minds about international travels, they can hardly resume to the pre-pandemic level in the foreseeable future. While business travelers can attend conferences online and leisure travelers can find domestic replacements, international travel is no longer necessary for most of its previous cases. Therefore, with overseas travel being vital to global cultural and economic exchanges, the trend towards a more interconnected world is permanently changed as a side effect of the ongoing pandemic. People should be accustomed to the new normal as global travel is no longer indispensable as before.
Works Cited
Ahlander, Johan. “‘It’s over’: Sweden Lifts Covid Restrictions and Ends Mass Testing.” The Independent, 9 Feb. 2022, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/sweden-lifts-covid-restrictions-testing-b2011574.html.
Ben-Achour, Sabri. “As the US and China Cancel Flights, the Market ‘Is Dead.’” Marketplace, 17 Feb. 2022, https://www.marketplace.org/2022/02/16/as-u-s-and-china-bicker-over-flights-the-market-is-dead/.
Faris, David. “Did the Pandemic End Globalization?” The Week, https://theweek.com/articles/968858/did-pandemic-end-globalization. Accessed 15 Feb. 2022.
“Florida Domestic Tourism Has Surpassed Pre-Pandemic Levels.” Bloomberg.Com, 19 Aug. 2021. www.bloomberg.com, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-19/florida-domestic-tourism-returns-international-market-lags.
Karabell, Zachary. “Will the Coronavirus Bring the End of Globalization? Don’t Count on It.” Wall Street Journal, 20 Mar. 2020. www.wsj.com, https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-the-coronavirus-bring-the-end-of-globalization-dont-count-on-it-11584716305.
Kiernan, Samantha, and Madeleine DeVita. “Travel Restrictions on China Due to COVID-19 | Think Global Health.” Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.thinkglobalhealth.org/article/travel-restrictions-china-due-covid-19. Accessed 23 Feb. 2022.
