WP4 RD

Hukou is a Chinese household registration system that the Chinese government designs to control the internal migration of the Chinese population (Chan & Li, 820). One of the essential features of hukou is regional social welfare policy. The policy originates in 1958, the era of the planned economy. At that time, the country intends to drive industrialization and urbanization. Thus, the Chinese government prioritizes the urban-industrial sector with rich social welfare such as jobs and health insurance to induce the population to migrate into urban centers, leaving the agricultural population largely outside state support (Chan & Li, 820). Soon, to ensure the division of labor both in agriculture and industry, the government takes over strict control by blocking the free flow of labor and other resources (Chan & Li, 820). At this point, the disparity of privileges ultimately differentiates regional social welfare policies and has been passed down to the modern hukou system. To this day, the citizens from Shanghai still enjoy one of China’s best social welfare, while few resources are given to the population from rural areas.

However, the hukou system, a product of the planned economy, is no longer suitable for the modern era due to the emerging overpopulation problems. The inherent deficiency of social welfare mismatches can only accelerate rural-urban migration and deteriorates the overpopulation problems in Shanghai. While some say that a stricter admission of hukou may relieve the situation, a more radical approach to decentralizing educational facilities is required to address the overpopulation problem in the long term.

Overpopulation has become a critical problem in Shanghai. During the 2021 Shanghai census, there were 24,870,895 residential populations (1). For further analysis, a comparison is necessary to understand the meaning of this number thoroughly. According to a study conducted by Yingying Zhang and her colleagues, they estimated that “the overall population carrying capacity is between 20.35 million and 30.12 million” (3335). Without including any omissions or other types of floating population, the mere residential population in Shanghai already exceeds 24 million. This number already falls within the range of carrying capacity Zhang predicted, which is highly problematic. Overpopulation can negatively impact Shanghai’s sustainable development, like soaring environmental pollution and resource overconsumption (Zhang et al., 3334). In the long term, it will even affect the structure and function of rural and urban authorities and lead to problems like crime activities and severe unemployment.

What causes this problem of overpopulation? By providing a strong incentive for migrants to move in, the hukou system creates this significant social welfare disparity between Shanghai and rural areas. The system facilitates the trend of rural-urban migration and worsens overpopulation in Shanghai. The problem first lurks when the state granted the temporary residence certificates in 1985 for the rural population to stay in cities (Chan & Li 832). The opening provides new opportunities as the rural population seeking fortune and better social welfare resources migrate to cities like Shanghai. Though successfully encouraging population mobility, the underlying problem has been revealed in recent years during the 2021 census: “10,479,652 [people are] from other provinces and cities, which is 42.1% of the entire Shanghai population. Compared with … ten years before, [there is] an increase of 16.7%… and an average annual growth rate of 1.6%” (1). To be clear, “from other provinces and cities” infers not owning does have Shanghai hukou. The data illustrates that almost half of the population in Shanghai does not have a Shanghai hukou. Shanghai hukou became the primary reason they came to Shanghai — it provides a crucial basis for better living standards and flourishing opportunities (Qian et al. 3932). Moreover, the comparison to the last population census is worth more noticing. The data clearly shows the trend is increasing drastically, meaning the urge of the rural population to gain Shanghai hukou is growing stronger than ever. Considering the increasing population trend from other provinces and cities, exceeding the carrying capacity is inevitable soon. Hukou becomes the pulling factor in attracting people from outside and causes population saturation in Shanghai. Rather than a regulator of population distribution, the mismatch of social welfare between rural areas and Shanghai deteriorates the overpopulation problem. The system does not seem suitable for resolving the issues of rural-urban migration in the modern era of urbanization.

Some may still claim that the hukou system should be kept and not be deemed entirely unsuitable because the disparity in social welfare stimulates the migration of the Chinese rural population in the big picture. In other words, while overpopulation may seem urgent, the hukou system overall facilitates population mobility and economic growth. Hukou may require little reform. I recognize the role hukou, and social welfare policies played in the earlier period of urbanization. Nevertheless, my argument about the hukou system’s unsuitableness focuses more on the present and future. As aforementioned, if the state maintains the status quo and keeps using the past system, the population from other provinces will increase unceasingly. Since it is unrealistic to expect Shanghai to increase its population capacity simultaneously, the overpopulation problem continues to grow. It can lead to damages more severe than we think. Not only will the city face the problem of future resource shortage and distorted social structure, but overpopulation can also hurdle Shanghai’s economic growth. According to a study conducted in 2020, “if big cities [like Shanghai] radically deregulate the hukou system and offer [expensive social welfare] to every migrant, the costs of these cities will not only be substantially high but also increase further with more and more population inflow” (Zhang et al.). In other words, assuming every migrant fulfills the wish of receiving Shanghai hukou, the cost of social welfare will be extremely high the Shanghai government cannot afford. The soaring expenditure of the government will limit and even negatively affect Shanghai’s economic growth. Thus, now knowing the expected disastrous result of overpopulation, we need to recognize the urgency and severity of this issue. At this critical moment, the advantage of facilitating social mobility backfires. The potential disadvantage hukou brings overwhelmingly exceeds its benefit. It is necessary to thoroughly reexamine the mechanism of the hukou system rather than maintaining the status quo. Regardless, the predicted result of worse economic performance proves the unsuitableness of the hukou system in the modern era.

Not only in China, but the overpopulation problem coming from rural-urban migration can be found in many countries throughout the world, especially in developing countries. Occurring at the beginning of the 20th century, the trend of rural-urban migration only becomes more prevalent: “Today, more than half of the world’s population lives in cities, and by 2030, it is estimated that two-thirds of the world’s population will be urbanized…” (Amara et al.). The developing regions like African countries, Brazil, and India demonstrated a rapid growth of urban population (Amara et al.) and caused severe overpopulation problems. Similar to China, the regional imbalance of urbanization within the developing countries pushes the rural population who desires to earn more income and improve their living standard to migrate into urban centers. However, those urban centers, like Shanghai, fail to hold all the rural population in the country. Overpopulation thus occurs and creates a disastrous effect in these metropolises. In Latin American cities, “40% of the workers were informally employed… and the proliferation of informal constructions during the last four decades… is a salient feature linked with rapid urban sprawl” (Posada & Moreno-Monroy, 346). In the meantime, overpopulation strongly impacts Sierra Leone and other African nations: “The health systems faced with many dilemmas… The increase in national consumption reduces the share of the national product available for investment… for the development of the nation” (Jarrett, 54). All the phenomena, ranging from the distortion of social structure to the obstacles against economic growth, have indicated the danger of overpopulation. To be clear, I do not mean that all the problems described above will also be the destiny of Shanghai. As a modern metropolis with solid infrastructure and health systems, Shanghai has a better chance of fending off these potential problems. Rather than hypothetical situations selected from an academic paper, I want to list these real-life instances around the globe to reinforce the danger of overpopulation and the pressing affair of developing a solution that can distract the dense population.

Understanding the core problem of Shanghai and most cities in developing countries is not enough. As government intends to relieve the overpopulated situation, a realistic, executable next-step solution should replace the outdated hukou system. There are a few attempts the Shanghai government is currently working on, one of which is to restrict the admission of Shanghai hukou. However, it fails to distract the population and even backfires by increasing the social inequality gap within the society. In recent years, intending to deconcentrate the dense population and avoid a substantial financial burden, the Shanghai government has started to limit the number of new Shanghai hukou issued every year. “Gaining hukou in Shanghai is more difficult than in other cities… migrants are eligible for Shanghai hukou only if they marry Shanghai hukou residents or have credentials and talent highly valued in Shanghai” (Qian et al., 3921). Though effective in limiting the Shanghai hukou population and preventing a potential economic crisis, the government seems to oversimplify the situation by assuming that the policy can discourage people from other provinces. In reality, as reflected in the 2021 Shanghai census, many migrants still chose to stay and show extraordinary tenacity in pursuing a higher living standard. While overpopulation remains unresolved, new problems of increasing social inequality arise: “[Many] migrants in Shanghai … are unable to own apartments due to financial and institutional barriers… There are no mechanisms for them to receive Shanghai hukou… Those with access to hukou move on to accumulate more wealth. Rural and other migrants are forever outsiders…” (Qian et al., 3933). In other words, while migrants have virtually no chance to earn a Shanghai hukou, those who own Shanghai are enjoying more opportunities to flourish and get richer. This reformed hukou system further increases social inequality within Shanghai, making the already imbalanced system even more tipped. This solution not only fails to address overpopulation but also brings in new social problems.

Instead, the current strategies employed by Kazakhstan for establishing strong education sources in the rural areas are worth noting. Since the problem of overpopulation emerges to be a global problem, we should go beyond the local extent and study the models from other countries. Kazakhstan, a former part of the Soviet Union, almost encountered a similar situation when the government focused on the city of Nursultan as the center of economic growth (Dufhues et al.). Rural-urban migration and the problem of overpopulation inevitably occur. To repel the population of Nursultan, the government focused on rural, regional development by focusing on education: “[establishing] decentralized education facilities and [colleges] in regional towns… [enables] young adults to [stay at] their home region for higher education. The decentralization of education facilities is also expected to create local jobs and attract new businesses. By making the conditions at home more attractive, these retain factors bolster the preference to stay” (Dufhues et al.). The government decentralizes the higher educational facilities to retain young and talented adults in the local region, which is sensible. Educational facilities, where the next generation talents are, are crucial to urban development. The influx of the college population will benefit the growth of peripheral industries. Meanwhile, more prominent companies are also willing to move near the campus in desiring young talents. For instance, the world-famous Silicon Valley and the research triangle area in the United States are very close to prominent educational institutions like Stanford University and Duke University. By decentralizing the educational institutions, the government not only distracts the population, especially younger generations, away from Nursultan but also sets a concrete foundation for the next urban and financial center.

Kazakhstan’s strategy has great reference value for the current overpopulation situation in Chinese metropolises like Shanghai and Beijing. Rather than seeking a method to repel the population at the local level, like restricting admission, Shanghai’s local government should cooperate with other provinces and address the issue together at a national level. Like Peking, Tsinghua, and Jiaotong University, government tends to build almost all top-notch universities within these metropolises. These city universities can only worsen the overpopulated situation in Shanghai and Beijing by attracting even more young talents. On the other hand, adopting this strategy accords with both interests of metropolises and rural provinces. Not only metropolises like Shanghai can address overpopulation issues, but the offer of establishing a well-known education institution and the potential influx of young talents also cannot sound any more enticing to rural provinces. However, I recognize that the problem of overpopulation is an urgent problem that government needs to address as soon as possible. Still, the impact of decentralizing education institutions tends to be slower and long term since reputation, the critical factor in attracting younger college students, needs to be accumulated over time. Thus, the government should complement this strategy with a short-term solution that would make an immediate impact.

Unlike during the planned economy era the national government plans and takes strict control, the power of decision-making gradually shifts to the population in the market economy and urbanization era. Progressing into this modern era, a new set of problems arises in Shanghai, most notably overpopulation. These problems are growing in a cross-regional tendency. In other words, more interests of stakeholders coming from different geographical regions are involved. Once effective in the planned economy, the Hukou system that focuses on regional social welfare is outdated. To fully address these cross-regional problems, we need a solution instead of hukou, like decentralizing educational facilities at the national level, which requires more cooperation among different regions and countries.