There Are Always Two Sides to the Same Coin: A Review of Marco F. Guillén’s 2030

“It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.” This Charles Darwin quote aptly describes Marco F. Guillén’s outlook on our future realities. In Darwin’s theory of evolution, organisms evolved by inheriting physical and behavioral traits over a period of time. Living things underwent a series of unavoidable and natural changes to adapt to changing climates and environmental conditions. In Guillén’s 2030: How Today’s Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything, Guillén examines the evolving status quo and the inheritance of impactive trends happening in our world right now. Through his analysis, Guillén reminds society of unstoppable demographic and technological shifts that we will witness just eight years from. Just like physical traits living organisms naturally acquire and adapt to their environments, Guillén suggests that acceptance to change, even if unfamiliar, is necessary for societal improvement. Thrusting the year 2030 into the spotlight, Guillén welcomes a time when the world, as we know it now, will end.

Having obtained his doctorate in sociology from Yale University and now overseeing as Dean of the Cambridge Judge Business School, Mauro F. Guillén is an expert on global trends. Throughout his career, Guillén has earned esteemed fellowships and awards for his sociological findings (Mauro Guillén). He is most interested in researching the volatile international landscapes of business, politics, and everyday life.

In 2030, Guillén combines his expertise with unconventional subtitles, compelling evidence, and striking opinions to forecast the future. Guillén does a great job of making numerical assessments accessible. He bolsters his argument by highlighting the demographic shift in population and the complexity of network technology. He insists that our lives will be at the crossroads of these two advancements and suggests that we should openly embrace new conditions. In my response to Guillén, I argue that 2030 raises questions about the cultural perspective of change and how advancements can complicate long-standing operations worldwide. More specifically, what will happen to the customs, arts, beliefs, social institutions, and achievements passed down through generations? Will “newness” signify a change for the better when pop culture pillars and professional working institutions become utterly redefined? Where do the humans experiencing this fit in? Limitless in implications, a cultural examination is necessary when discussing impactive changes in our world.

Guillén dedicates almost half the book to describing shifting demographics that will change both social and economic behaviors. With colloquial titles like “Gray is the New Black” and “Second Sex No More,” he informs readers that by 2030, senior citizens will be more tech-savvy, the new generation of leaders will not be predominantly male, and the next industrial revolution will take place in Africa. He attributes these outcomes to the declining birth rates in developed countries like the United States, Europe, and China and to increasing birth rates in the previously underdeveloped continent of Africa. Supporting his argument, Guillén draws on strong numerical data, citing that for every baby born in the U.S., 4.4 are born in China, 6.5 in India, and 10.2 in Africa (Guillén). Fewer youths born in Europe and the U.S. signify a larger portion of the western population composed of Generation X, the Baby Boomers, and the Silent Generation. In the same argument, Guillén claims that in developed countries, fewer babies are the norm. Females capable of having children choose not to reproduce thanks to higher education, better job competition, and new standards of success. Witnessing a trend of career ascension and less baggage, women in developed countries no longer feel obligated to bear children; this leaves African countries a chance to compete economically, create labor by numbers, and explore untapped technology realms as the first-world countries did.

Concluding from surprising findings, Guillén urges his audience to consider the immense market opportunities at hand. Guillén believes that more babies born in places other than countries like the U.S. and Europe will generate human resources for production and educational improvement. Meanwhile, in aging countries, the size of the older demographic holds the potential to be a blossoming market sector that we have yet to realize in 2022. Along with that, he also suggests that such influential demographic changes paired with lessening gender gaps call for a revision of societal operations. Throughout his explanation, Guillén optimistically persuades readers by diminishing hesitation toward novel opportunities. Guillén prompts readers to invest in servicing aging populations, realizing gender equality’s contribution to diverse market demands, and capitalizing on the newly progressive part of the globe he calls the “Silicon Savanna.”

Respectfully, I am skeptical about Guillén’s overwhelming positivity. I do not mean to discredit his informed analysis, in fact, I praise it. But it appears that Guillén is largely ignoring the cultural implications that can result from such demographic trends. I believe that altering the demographic climate not only initiates the exploration of new frontiers but also erodes established systems.

For example, retirement will look a lot less relaxing in the future, especially in the U.S. and Europe, where the birth rates are low. Fewer young people in the labor force are contributing to aggregate pension funds. Recent research conducted by the International Monetary Fund found that public and private savings will decline due to more retirement spending by older generations during the next thirty years (Chand and Jaeger). The vacationing elders of 2022 are enjoying more new products exclusively marketed toward them. Undeniably so, this sector will stimulate the economy, but we are totally ignoring the fact that Millennials and Generation Z will eventually age as well. Where will the government-promised fallback be when there is nobody to fund old-age spending? In America, will our culture of post-retirement travel and leisure break down to force younger people into becoming corporate mules as we age? These questions remain unanswered by Guillén’s account.

Regarding Guillén’s other speculations, I have no objection to celebrating the growing balance between men and women in the workplace, but I will contest the idea that gender equality will be universally improved in 2030. Guillén attributes evening gender levels to the improving pay and employment standards for women in developed countries. Thanks to advocacy and open education, Guillén believes such benefitting gender ideologies from countries like the U.S. and Europe will inevitably filter to all parts of the world. I believe that this is a serious misevaluation of our current social climate. In Iran, women are still treated as second-class citizens. Oftentimes, they are vulnerable to domestic violence and blatant gender discrimination (Iran: Women and Girls). For a country with paternal dominance deeply ingrained in its cultural genetics, it is difficult to imagine a definitive solution to moral issues in a place where women lack a voice at all. How long will it take to weather down the social structure in Iran? Likely not in eight years. And what about established cultural institutions in other areas of the world? Guillén does not consider their perspective.

When it comes to the new industrial revolution taking place in Africa due to the rising population, Guillén might also be implicitly selfish to suggest capitalizing on emerging markets. Guillén excitedly anticipates more African babies becoming engineers to test new technological heights, but if Africa’s industrial revolution is anything like the west, we will see worsening effects of climate change. Internationally, climate change is equally a cultural topic as a scientific one. In the American Industrial Revolution, coal, oil, and natural gas gave rise to steam engines, light bulbs, and assembly lines (Causes of Climate Change). This fast-paced ascension to modernity also resulted in a capitalistic culture that still harms the environment. Today, America’s carbon footprint and urban pollution have rendered the earth’s ozone layers helpless. At what cost will the rise of Africa be on greater humanity? Unless Guillén can defend Africa’s plan to conduct a greener revolution, I do not see why the economic rise of a giant continent should be glorified.

Asides from contradicting Guillén’s excitement, I would like to offer another cultural perspective by examining the entertainment realm. Specifically, I am referring to the billion-dollar industry that is Korean pop music, or K-Pop. Home to the hotly demanded genre, the country of South Korea exhibited a record-low fertility rate of 0.81 children over a woman’s lifetime in 2021 (Kim). Ironically, K-Pop thrives on selecting and training talents from massive pools of young Korean boys and girls. If South Korea continues on its downward trajectory of nurturing offspring, the future of global entertainment will look bleak. Perhaps Guillén would insist that this gives rise to a fresh taste of popular music from other regions, but I disagree. I believe that a series of significant cultural degradation like that of K-pop will occur not so far into our future. Perhaps in 2030, the desaturation of Korean singers and dancers will mark the decline of mass music culture. This is not something I am ecstatic about.

In the second half of his book, Guillén takes a deeper technological dive into his predictions. He encourages embracing disruptive innovations to generate upward momentum for society as changing demographics push innovation forward. He humorously illustrates the concept by saying that there will be “more cellphones than toilets.” Guillén explains that the first modern flush toilet was invented in the sixteenth century to alleviate poor sewage disposal, one of the biggest issues at the time. Shortly following the first developments, the trap lid of toilets was invented to rid putrid smells. Then after that, a series of improvements eventually perfected the modern toilet most of us use daily (Guillén). Guillén stresses that humanity never stops discovering mechanical solutions to improve our lives. According to him, this type of positive feedback loop will always help society prosper because technology inherently makes our lives easier. Guillén then references the most recent waterless and odorless toilet. The toilet boasts many assets, but its most valuable quality is that it can support the device integral to life in the twenty-first century, our cellphone (Guillén).

As Guillén explains it, innovation drives innovation, and along the way, old technologies may be repurposed or disposed of for the betterment of new ones. Room-sized computer machines were replaced with desktops, desktops were replaced with laptops, laptops with iPads, iPads with iPhones, and so on and so forth. The technological wheel never stops spinning, and Guillén is certainly not mad about it! He believes that society will never improve if we dote on the past.

Exemplifying his point, Guillén predicts that in 2030, there will be more artificial intelligence (AI) in place of traditional work positions. There will be incredible network connectivity that transcends political boundaries through digitized currency. AI and algorithms will stand in for personnel. Human accountants, legal assistants, and even surgeons may be considered outdated in the near future. Money will no longer come in paper and coins but as numbers on a screen. I worry that Guillén’s predictions may become our reality. If customer service phone calls conducted by AI can relieve anxieties about computer breakdowns, then I do not see why AI will not replace more human functions. Though eight years seem far away, I agree with Guillén that we are already on the path to a world intertwined with all things tech, but I am not all that excited about its consequences.

Approaching a less tangible world, Guillén reassures readers that there is nothing to fear in the face of new technology and that we should adapt to human-machine integrations. He proposes we be grateful for computer solutions to occupations littered with unfulfilling tasks that people already avoid. One could argue that human assembly lines invigorated Henry Ford’s automobiles in the American Industrial Revolution, and they have already been replaced by automatic machines today for efficiency. However, this does not mean that the disappearance of jobs with mundane tasks has no effect on us.

Doubling down on my concern for its cultural impacts, I will focus on the medical professionals Guillén predicts will adjust with the introduction of AI technology. I argue that the culture of healthcare will be hurt. How are we as humans supposed to cope with the idea that surgeons of the future are mostly robotic arms and computer code? I do not think we can fully trust wires and screens over another human whose lifeline depends on treating diseases and monitoring health. I am not sure if humans can ever successfully engineer social responsibility, civic duty, and other cultural values into that of a hardware brain.

Given that Guillén may sense apprehension from skeptics like me, he may argue that we have already successfully incorporated AI to aid our mundane tasks. As a college student, I have had my fair share of job interviews. What used to be phone calls and in-person meetings have now shifted to recorded video interviews screened by both recruitment professionals and their handy AI tools. In fact, many human resources departments across America now harness AI to filter applicants by desired skills presented in applicants’ recorded responses (Marr). I understand that using technology aids can make filling jobs a faster and more efficient process, but I am concerned about cultural changes in work if every company in the world approves of this by 2030. Think about the soft skills through in-person interactions that simply cannot be gauged by AI. The machine purely serves to look for keywords mentioned by applicants, which lacks emotional connection. What is the culture of workplaces if companies fail to evaluate the personalities of their employees? This may create professional environments that have an imbalance with incoherent teamwork. If AI is the sole determinant of job qualification, employment culture will be in serious trouble.

In response to my concerns, Guillén would say that it is just the trial and error of contemporary Darwinism acting at best, but I do not understand his optimism. Guillén’s open acceptance of digital currency also alarms me. While Guillén pushes for the ease of economic transactions from country to country, I believe that there is significant cultural value in keeping paper currency. Consider what we see when we pull our American dollars in the United States. From our first president, George Washington, to abolitionist hero Harriet Tubman, the faces printed on dollars are emblematic of American history and culture. In Bosnia and Tunisia, their physical currency pays respect to the country’s venerated heroes and thought leaders (McKeever). In more ways than one, the paper and metal remind citizens of their identities and culture. More sophisticated than the geopolitical borders themselves, tangible money protects a nation’s fundamental ideology.

By officiating digital currency into our lives, we become blind to important values maintained for centuries until now. Say the world retires yuans, dollars, and euros for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Tether; what will happen to our crucial cultural distinctions? Beyond that, these digital currencies complicate the already nuanced network society we live in. Coupling our technology-driven relationships fostered through social media with electronic transactions, our ability to maintain individuality will be threatened. In the near future, we may be nothing more than aliases on mobile devices. We may be defined solely by markers of our digital footprint. Personally, I wonder, will my nationality as an American be unimportant? Will my existence be reduced to just one of the 7.8 billion global citizens on earth? Where will my American pride lie? Nonetheless, these concerns fail to be addressed by Guillén.

In his book, Guillén does generate a fair bit of excitement for the future. As a society, we should look forward to the new and the better. Increasing modernization, improving living standards, and making technological breakthroughs are wonderful, but we should never lose sight of possible dangers ahead. At the end of the day, 2030 is just a blink of an eye away from today. As much as we get ready to welcome a new age, we should also prepare for potential consequences. If you or a friend is considering 2030 for a read, give it a try! Though I should warn you to keep in mind that there are always two sides to the same coin. For now, in 2022, my bet is on the less optimistic version of Guillén’s predictions.

References

“Causes of Climate Change.” EPA, United States Environmental Protection Agency, 19 Aug. 2022, www.epa.gov/climatechange-science/causes-climate-change.

Chand, Sheetal K, and Albert Jaeger. “Aging Populations and Public Pension Schemes — IMF Occasional Paper №147.” International Monetary Fund, International Monetary Fund, www.imf.org/external/pubs/nft/op/147/index.htm.

Guillén Mauro F. 2030. Flint, 2021.

“Iran: Women and Girls Treated as Second Class Citizens, Reforms Urgently Needed, Says UN Expert.” United Nations Human Rights Officer of the High Commissioner, United Nations, 8 Mar. 2021, www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2021/03/iran-women-and-girls-treated-second-class-citizens-reforms-urgently-needed#:~:text=%E2%80%9CBlatant%20discrimination%20exists%20in%20Iranian,their%20autonomy%20and%20human%20dignity.

Kim, Sam. “South Korea Population: Country Breaks Own Record for Lowest Fertility Rate.” Bloomberg.com, Bloomberg, 24 Aug. 2022, www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-24/fastest-aging-wealthy-economy-breaks-own-fertility-record-again?leadSource=uverify+wall.

Marr, Bernard. “The Benefits And Dangers Of Using AI In Recruitment.” Forbes, Forbes Magazine, 9 May 2022, www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2022/05/06/the-benefits-and-dangers-of-using-ai-in-recruitment/?sh=50b21da9292f.

“Mauro Guillén.” Wharton University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania, 18 Apr. 2022, mgmt.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/Guillén/#.

McKeever, Amy. “What Can the Faces on Its Currency Tell Us About a Country?” National Geographic, National Geographic, 4 May 2021, www.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/what-can-faces-on-currency-tell-us-about-country.