Metaverse Closer than Ever? A Reality Check for Matthew Ball
Written by Alexis Lu
trap on the VR headset and let it take you to a virtual world where the limits of reality are your imagination. You can do anything, go anywhere. This is a quote from Wade Watts, a genius engineer from the movie Ready Player One, on OASIS. This transformational digital reality evolved from a gaming platform and is used by the public daily. But is this where we are heading? A world fully integrated with virtual reality and gaming. The Metaverse hype peaked in 2021 as Mark Zuckerberg launched Horizon Worlds, a virtual world built by Meta. We are closer to the classic sci-fi fantasy of a globally networked virtual reality than ever. The book The Metaverse resonates with the idea of the interrelations between the gaming industry and the virtual reality world suggested in the movie Ready Player One. The author Matthew Ball points out the existing resources the gaming industry already has to charge into the Metaverse and the benefits gaming companies can bring to the Metaverse, which aligns with the current and projected market size of the Metaverse in the gaming industry. He also proposes several changes gaming companies need to make to overcome technical challenges for the future development of the Metaverse (Ball). However, is it realistic from the companies’ perspective to push for these changes?
The first few iterations of the Metaverse will likely revolve around the Metaverse. Ball maintains a positive attitude towards integrating the gaming industry and the Metaverse. Ball believes that the gaming industry will be the main driver behind the development and growth of The Metaverse. He notes that the gaming industry is uniquely positioned to drive the adoption of the Metaverse. There are already millions of people around the world who are passionate about gaming and who are comfortable with using virtual worlds and avatars. These users are likely adopters of the Metaverse, which could help spur further growth and development. The gaming industry has also been at the forefront of developing immersive virtual worlds and environments for decades. These virtual worlds have become increasingly sophisticated and widespread over time, paving the way for the development of the Metaverse. Gaming companies are pushing for more advanced technologies for better virtual reality experiences. For example, Fortnite seeks to enhance its user experience by procuring Sketchfab, which has developed a platform for uploading, downloading, viewing, sharing, purchasing, and selling 3D assets. This platform is widely regarded as the foremost online repository for 3D files (Dillet).
With more relevant technological breakthroughs achieved by big gaming companies, the Metaverse is expected to evolve from these different technological breakthroughs into a more interconnected virtual space that allows for social interactions (Ball), a process similar to what the gaming industry went through to establish such a robust market for itself. The government first established the mobile internet, but its capacity needed to be expanded for video games to develop. Households or small businesses did not typically own video game consoles or gaming-focused PCs. However, several companies like Nvidia identified and seized the opportunity to cater to such an unmet market demand at the time. Now, they are one of the most influential technology companies in the human industry. At the same time, the gaming industry has kept pushing to develop powerful computers and make them affordable to the public for the past few decades. It also introduced several other technologies like 3D graphics and real-time 3D rendering. These changes allow video games to evolve into a highly social experience, with millions of people participating and interacting with each other on a virtual platform (Wallach).
The gaming industry’s technological resources, market position, and evolution history indicate its unique power in the development of the Metaverse. Indeed, the gaming industry is already charging into the Metaverse. The market size of Metaverse in the gaming industry was valued at 36.9 Billion in 2022. It is predicted to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 37% from 2022 to 2030 and reach 663.8 Billion by 2030. More adoption of VR technology in interactive games further boosts Metaverse’sMetaverse’s growth in the gaming industry. The gaming engine segment takes up a market share of 59.91% in the entire market. Specifically, Unity and Unreal, two big players in the gaming engine segment, have been actively pushing to create games complementary to the Metaverse, developing VR technologies and platforms, creating avatars for users, and driving market growth (Kumar).
The most essential aspect of gaming companies is their ability to create a virtual place where people want to spend time. The Metaverse must make such an enjoyable digital space and game developers can help. Paul Murray, a writer for Intelligencer, entered Horizon Worlds for the first time and found the Metaverse far from the cyberpunk future that society was excited about. “[Video game engineers] know how to make not just a clock, but a room, a building, and a village populated by happy players,” since video games don’t need realistic fire, gravity, or thermodynamics. What they need is to be fun.” The Metaverse lacks the “fun” part: “After a certain number of hours in Zuckerberg’sZuckerberg’s personal universe, you find yourself asking questions like “Does he think this is good?” Murray comments in his article detailing his “first trip” to the Metaverse. The virtual space seems more like a crappy digital version of reality. Horizon Worlds was a challenging experience for Murray. He and other users were left to make their fun. After his trip, the only takeaway is that he appreciates reality more (Murray). Game developers are skilled at creating a fun, enjoyable virtual space. Each game goes through stages of game development to produce the most exciting and captivating storyline, genre, and game mechanics. Game designs are constantly refined and updated to build the best user experience. Gaming companies and game developers might be able to give the most input in making the Metaverse “fun.”
Interactive gaming platforms like Roblox and Fortnite have already been considered precursors to the Metaverse. The popular virtual spaces allow users to interact using the avatars they created, embodying the Metaverse’s core element. However, these platforms are too limited by their independence and functionality to be incorporated fully into the context of the Metaverse (Caminti). In the book, Ball points out the most critical challenge the game industry will need to overcome in the context of the Metaverse: interoperability. To achieve interoperability, Ball points out the need to “align on a handful of so-called interchange solutions — — various common standards, working conventions, “systems of systems”…(Ball).” Specifically, users should be able to “buy elsewhere, use here,” which means users can bring the virtual assets that they purchase in one game to another different game and still be able to use it (Ball). He believes that persistent digital ownership that is transferable between games is essential to build a Metaverse with new forms of self-expression and culture that appeal to more people. Though gaming companies seem willing to invest in the expansion to the Metaverse, their business strategy focus appears to be building an immersive virtual space rather than solving the interoperability issue, as Ball proposed. According to a survey by EY, 97% of the higher-ups in gaming companies believe the gaming industry will be the center of the Metaverse, and 49% prioritize investments in such a direction. Their investment focuses are on “immersive augmented-, virtual-, or mixed-reality experiences” rather than interoperability (Porter).
Even though big gaming companies might have enough capabilities and investment to push for the changes, they still need incentives. An “open-item economy” does not match the user’s needs. Each video game has its aesthetics. A game has its style, which can be gritty, scary, gloomy, cartoony, etc. Games have different backstories too. For example, some games might include dragons, while others don’t. They also set the timelines differently. Some are in the past, current days, or future. Accordingly, the virtual assets from the games are designed differently in consistency with the game narratives. Even the point-keeping systems in different games don’t translate: how will the currency in one game be worth in another? On top of that, games also vary in their mechanics, which is what they allow users to do in the game. For interactivity, games have a set rule for the mechanics. For example, in Fortnite, users can jump, run, shoot, and web-swing, whereas in Rocket League, users can drive, jump, double jump, and even rocket jump. An “open-item economy” in the Metaverse might lose the digital items’ aesthetics and interactivity, which might not appeal to the users (Harris).
At the time being, given the different customer needs, companies are reluctant to push for interoperability. If the gaming industry is a dead end, what should we do next? Ball contends that there might be non-gaming alternatives. Yet, these alternatives are regarded as inferior for real-time rendering. These technologies mainly prioritize visual richness, a less critical factor in building an enjoyable virtual space in the Metaverse. Other industries are more proactively taking part in the Metaverse. The immersive experience in the Metaverse creates new business opportunities for the porn industry. The porn industry has always been at the forefront of all technological changes. Even in the past decades, as technology like DVD and CD has evolved and developed, the porn industry has been part of the driving force behind it. There is already a demand in virtual reality for porn and sex. ViRo Playspace is a VR technology company providing adult VR content to create a socially safe space. The Co-founder and CEO, Demo Tio, points out that “the Metaverse allows users to feel the VR experience by creating the availability of virtual areas accessible by the Internet connection. It is vital to check how this freedom to society changes their attitude towards VR sexual ventures (Brian).”
Nevertheless, designers should be wary of the short-term temptations of developing the porn dimension. It’s profitable, and there’s demand. Still, in the long-term, the more prominent porn becomes in this space, the more we see other possibilities (family reunions, music festivals, professional conferences, sports) foreclosed.
However, Ball still offers a positive outlook and believes that technological change may lead to further cultural change that will shift customer needs and ultimately allow for the success of the Metaverse: the changing user conditions might provide gaming companies with incentives to push for technological changes in the future. The Metaverse hype has been around for decades, and we have been going up and down in the hype cycle over the concept of the Metaverse. We are experiencing the hype cycle again due to more advanced graphics, better connectivity, and growing VR technologies. VR has gotten closer and closer to a consumer application. It is estimated that Facebook has sold 8 million of its Oculus Quest 2 headsets, and some VR games profited more than $1 million in sales, a massive leap from ten years ago. Even though the numbers fall short of Mark Zuckerberg’sZuckerberg’s goal, technological change has brought cultural change, as Ball points out. How we perceive the idea of the Metaverse changes with technological advancement. Cultural change will gradually change users’ needs and incentivize gaming companies to push for future technological changes (Bar-Zeev).
Video games have been operating in a “live service” model that constantly makes significant changes to offer a more convincing illusion of a thrilling, captivating, and living world so that the users keep coming back. Similarly, the Metaverse has the unlimited potential to constantly pivot, evolve, upgrade, and develop into a better version of itself. The future of the Metaverse and whether the idea of the Metaverse will live up to the hype stay unclear. There is yet to be an accurate definition of the Metaverse. Most futuristic and cyberpunk definitions offered by big tech corporations are more of a marketing idea than a precise description of the new technology. However, we have made progress. Whether the gaming industry will be the primary driver of the Metaverse or not, the Metaverse should be prepared to make significant changes over the next decades to better cater to the changing demand and tastes.
Reference:
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