2022: The most exciting year since the dawn of the automotive industry
The coming year will be one of the most exciting years for the automotive industry. Many trends and revolutions that have taken off in the last decade will have arrived in the industry by 2022. New competitors will also give the existing top dogs a good shake-up. Let’s look in detail:
Moving away from the combustion engine: How fast are EVs taking over the markets?
In the last two years, the breakthrough of e-mobility has begun at least for some of the most important markets in the world. The first smaller European markets such as Norway already have a share of more than 50% of new registrations with new drive technologies. In Germany, in the first half of 2021, more than one in five cars was already newly registered “with an electric connection,” i.e., either BEV or PHEV. Looking at China as the world’s biggest car sales market, already 10% of the buyers during Q1/21 decided to buy a chargeable car.
And this while the product range offered by manufacturers is still limited — many models that are already in the middle of product development will only be available soon in the markets. BMW’s i4 and iX electric cars are just two selected examples that weren’t yet available in bigger sales quantities during 2021. What will this mean for registration figures? Both the government subsidies in many countries and the increasing expansion of infrastructure could well provide the basis for a further increase. Is the revolution coming faster than planned? Or will enthusiasm for the new mobility stagnate? 2022 will be the year that sets the course for the future and shows whether the move away from the combustion engine will happen.
Electric Vehicles: Who’s winning the race? (Tesla vs. VW and the Chinese).
Let’s stay with electric cars. Until now, many potential customers have been reluctant to buy a car because of its short range. Now, new models and a lot of new technology are coming onto the market. In terms of “inner values,” the German premium manufacturers are no longer the only ones setting the benchmark. 2022 will show who can successfully align their brands with the technologies of the future and secure market share. Hyundai in particular is currently excelling here with the new Ionic brand and the Ionic 5, which promises to become a technology leader in the volume segment of electric cars.
Tesla will certainly also play a role and remain the market leader. After realizing very successful sales figures in 2021, Tesla will have even more global factories ready for production volume expansion in the coming year. The pick-up “Cybertruck” may only be a niche product for Europe, but it already has over one million pre-orders worldwide. And if the rumor mill is right that Tesla will launch another model in the low-cost segment below its “Model 3” with the proven Tesla technology, the market competitors will certainly have a much more difficult time finding buyers for their products.
But that’s not enough turbulence in the market: new providers are also aiming to enter the European markets with electric cars. In particular, the Chinese players Nio, Airways and XPeng already have their foot in the door here. 2022 will be decisive for them for a successful market launch in the European markets.
Does size matter? What about the trend towards larger vehicles
Separate from the question of drive technology, the question of which product portfolio the manufacturers will market and with which they will meet customer tastes will also arise in the coming year. Will the trend toward ever larger and ever more powerful SUVs continue unabated? Will the growing awareness of the threat of climate change lead to a shift away from “business as usual”? First of all, there is much to suggest that manufacturers will continue to focus on large and heavy cars. On the other hand, smaller models are by no means slow sellers across Europe. Volkswagen’s e-UP, for example, had such long delivery times in the summer of 2020 that VW temporarily removed it from the configurator. Even though the model has been offered again in the meantime, it is currently missing from the configurator.
New versus old: How do the top dogs fare in the race for technology leadership?
2022 will also show how the “old” automakers fare against their new competitors. After Tesla had shaken up the industry in the last decade, many of those responsible at the previous top dogs have now understood that great efforts are necessary to master the upcoming change. This is not just about new models and electric cars. It’s also about software centricity and completely new processes that make it possible to bring vehicles to market faster and to keep them up to date via software even after they have been sold, and ideally even to earn money with them. Everyone has now embarked on this journey. But will this be enough to catch up with American competitors? Will the current premium manufacturers continue to be premium in the future? At least they are trying. Mercedes-Benz, for example, has shown where the bar is set with its top electric car EQS. However, the race is still on in the direction of autonomous driving and increasing automation. We will see who can communicate which successes here in 2022.
New mobility and the shared economy
In recent years, a number of mobility service providers had begun to establish themselves on the market. These ranged from car sharing to Uber as a platform-supported cab alternative to other ridesharing services such as Volkswagen’s MOIA in Northern Germany, which were explicitly declared as precursors to autonomously operated shuttles. The Covid 19 pandemic put a bit of a crimp in these providers’ business last year. Mobility had declined massively, especially in 2020, and out of caution against infections, individual, automobile mobility was once again valued more than before (despite all ecological aspects). The more everyday life returns, the better we learn to be mobile with Covid-19 and the more sustainability becomes an issue in mobility again, the more it will become clear which business models will be successful.
2022 can therefore be just as much a boom year for mobility providers as it can be another lean year on the road to autonomous driving, which all providers are waiting for in order to be able to offer their services independently of drivers.
This article initially has been part of my German book about the (Auto)mobile Disruption. This translated version is slightly edited.
