Haphazard forecast next week

General overview 17th October 2015 Disturbance

Disturbance fifty three extends from Belize into Honduras. This disturbance is moving slowly to the west-nor’west. A separate disturbance in the east Pacific basin will develop into a depression or tropical storm over the next few days. The combination of this and the northern portion of the east Pacific system could form a low-pressure system in the southern or southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the early to middle part of next week.

If the low forms, it could strengthen into a tropical storm. Thereafter take your pick. The modellers are all over the place. Some move the potential low inland in northeastern Mexico or southern Texas, then take it northward through Texas. In this solution, the low would not be able to strengthen much but would bring widespread rainfall from Mexico into Louisiana and breezy conditions to much of the central and western Gulf.

Other models form the low near the Mexican coast near Tampico, and then move it southeast towards the Yucatan peninsula. It would have a chance of becoming a tropical storm but would but would not have much impact on the northern Gulf. There is also a chance a low could form in the southern Gulf, move northeast towards the Gulf coast, and then make landfall east of the Mississippi next weekend. Regardless of how the system evolves there is likely to be wet and windy conditions across much of the central and western Gulf next week.

Disturbance fifty two is at its closest point to the Caribbean now, some 160 miles north east. This is moving to the northwest at 15 knots. Once north of the Caribbean, conditions may become slightly favourable for development but is not likely to effect land. Disturbance fifty four is now centred 350 miles north east of the Amazon delta and is moving west at 8 knots. Tropical development is not expected.

Stand easy.

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