Mining for Votes
The international events of the past few weeks have raised the stakes. In 2018, all elections are must-win elections. Not just for the left, not for Democrats, but for all persons of conscience and good will. For democracy. So take nothing for granted. Just get out there and find the votes. Here’s where to look.
“Russia’s attempts to influence the 2016 election are disgraceful. We should work to improve American relations with our adversaries, but not at the cost of our nation’s soul.” — Kenneth Buck (R, Fourth Congressional District, Colorado)
Given that it’s been clear for more than a year that our beloved Congressman has already sold his soul to the 45th president and colluder-in-chief, you can interpret this quote to mean that Buck has just written his own legislative epitaph. But he’s unlikely to resign out of shame. We’ve gotta vote him out.
In our last issue, we went through a little thought experiment to show that the Democratic candidate, Dr. Karen McCormick, has a path to victory. But it was never an easy path, and even Mr. T’s disastrous Helsinki Capitulation Tour doesn’t make it much easier. Desperate Demagogues Double Down.
The votes we need to retake Congress are there. But they aren’t going to just come to us in the fabled Blue Wave. We are going to have to dig every one of them out of the bedrock of the conservative habit and culture of rural America. So let’s get to work. Where are the untapped veins of electoral gold?
25,000 Democrats didn’t vote in 2016
Can you believe it? In CD4 alone, more than 25,000 Democrats sat out the 2016 election. It’s our job to find them and move them to fill out their ballot. No nuance: straight blue ticket. Our Constitutional system of Checks and Balances is broken, and Democracy won’t work for us again until, at least, we take at least one house of the US Congress to put some restraints on that madman in the White House. Replacing Ken Buck with Karen is the biggest contribution to US National Security that CD4 can make.
Now, CD4 is a big place. Good thing all but a handful of those nonvoting Democrats live in population centers (big or small) that already have strong Democratic or Progressive organizations on hand to organize and get out the vote! From Longmont Area Democrats to Yuma Indivisible: You’ve got this!
57,000 Unaffiliated Voters who can be Activated
In CD4, nearly 57,000 unaffiliated voters did not vote in the last midterm election, but did vote in 2016. These will be relatively easy to activate compared to registered voters who did not vote in either 2016 or 2014.
We don’t actually want to activate all of them. Some of them lean Republican and will vote for Buck if they vote. But this is shaping up to be a good year to activate most of them. Because we have some inside information. According to the Colorado Secretary of State, Unaffiliated voters who voted in the June Primary returned Democratic ballots over Republican ones by 3:2. And, we know who they are — making them priority one targets for canvassing.
If we assume that other U’s are leaning Democratic in the same proportion, then targeting Unaffiliated voters for GOTV is a good bet. Plus, the Democratic Votebuilder database contains partial information about which way these voters lean. Above, we have narrowed the field a little bit by filtering out those known to lean Republican. And we can hope that the R-leaning U’s will filter themselves out by staying home again this year, out of sheer disgust.
Here’s a little canvass script. When knocking the doors of unaffiliated voters, we want to filter out the Republican leaners quickly and not motivate them.
“Hi, I am trying to learn about <this> County’s voters. If the election were held today, would you vote for Ken Buck, the incumbent Republican in Congress, or Karen McCormick, the Democratic challenger?”
If Buck: “Thank you very much.” Record “LR” on your walk list and move on.
If McCormick, or if they say they won’t vote: “Your vote is very important this year. With undivided government in Washington, some extreme things are happening. Voting Blue will help us return to a balance. Even some very prominent conservatives are now saying this.” If they said McCormick, end with “Thank you for your vote.” Otherwise, end with “I hope you will think about it.”
Crossover Republicans
Activating a substantial percentage of the voting groups identified above for Karen puts her within range of victory. A possible win, versus the certain loss Democrats have endured since 2012, will depend on the turnout rate achieved in these groups — and also on the Republican turnout. This is a deeply Republican district, with a substantial faction of Trump loyalists. For many of them, our best hope is that they will stay home. That probably means keeping mum on both Trump and Buck.
However, there is one particular Republican demographic — college-educated younger women — who are considered by analysts to be very likely to be turned off by Trumpism and, especially, attracted to Dr. Karen McCormick as a candidate. There are concentrations of such women in Greeley, Parker/Lone Tree, and Longmont.
How WTF Can Help
WTF Colorado is ready to support GOTV efforts in a number of ways. We don’t coordinate with candidate campaigns. We believe that canvassing is the most important way to volunteer in this election, and we believe that canvassing volunteers should apply first directly to the McCormick campaign — or to the campaign of another candidate you are passionate about supporting. That way, canvass coverage will be consistent and the candidates will know what areas have been covered. However, WTF has been working hard for eighteen months now planning services that the candidates — especially those less well-funded than Dr. McCormick — may not be able to provide.
- Transportation
If you have a group of 4 or more volunteer canvassers, but live in an area where there aren’t many prospective voters for our candidates, WTF will provide transportation to one of the areas where walkers are needed, coordinate pickup and delivery, and provide water and snacks. We want to help you make a difference even if your own neighborhood is hostile to democratic messaging. If possible, get your walklists and lit from your candidate or county Democratic coordinated campaign. If you’re interested in motivating voters more generally, we’ll provide additional collateral. Write to us at winthefourth@gmail.com to schedule canvass support. - Collateral
We have motivational material like the flyer at left, intended to motivate non-voters to vote the Blue ticket. These give you something to leave behind as well as talking points for people willing to engage with your. In addition to the one shown, we can offer material about checks and balances, one about how easy voting is in Colorado, and an independent electioneering flyer on why Karen McCormick is the right representative for Colorado CD4. Our material is distinctive (doesn’t look like slick political advertising) and catches people’s eyes. In our [limited] market tests, it performed very well. - Rallies
If you want to hold an event to gin up enthusiasm, but need help publicizing, documenting (high quality video recording including Facebook Live if your venue has the bandwidth), or paying for facilities, we’ll work with you. winthefourth@gmail.com
Why it’s So Important
Here in Colorado our livelihoods are impacted by the new tariffs that have been unreasonably imposed on our allies as well as other trading partners in the Republican administration’s unforced and inexplicable trade war-of-choice. Our access to health care is threatened by deliberate and admitted sabotage by the same administration. And now our repugnant head of state has publicly sided with an adversarial leader over over a cadre of dedicated professional public servants who put themselves in harm’s way to protect our national security, rattled the sabres at Iran, and generally shamed us on the world stage. Nothing is more important than getting out the vote. Every vote for any Democrat in 2018 is a vote for democracy and against chaos.
Let’s get to it! For everything that matters to us.
