Musical Chairs: Who will run where?
Colorado and CD4 are suffering from an embarrassment of riches, at least when it comes to political candidates willing to run for office. It starts with a vacancy at the top. Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, a Democrat, is term-limited. His time as governor ends in January 2019. Because the 2020 census and subsequent reapportionment of Representatives at both the State and Federal level will occur on the next governor’s watch, prominent leaders from both parties are vying for the gubernatorial nomination.
The vacancy in the top chair is spawning much speculation, and, inevitably, is creating additional vacancies for other state and national elected offices. For example, the Democratic CD2 House incumbent Jared Polis has announced that he will seek the governor’s seat, leaving a fat vacancy in safely Democratic Congressional District 2. The Democratic gubernatorial field is crowded, but Polis stands out because he can self-fund: his personal fortune is estimated at a minimum $140M.
On the Republican side, the field is also crowded. So far, declared Republican candidates are George Brauchler, who gained name recognition as prosecutor of the Aurora theater shooting, Doug Robinson, a member of the Romney family, and former state lawmaker Victor Mitchell. In the latest development, Republican State Attorney General Cynthia Coffman is contemplating entering the race.
Bucking the System
That’s a big deal for CD4 and WTF, because our own Representative Ken Buck is supposed to be eyeing Coffman’s seat if she vacates. Buck, a far-right member of the House Freedom Caucus, would need to position himself nearer the center to win a statewide office in Colorado, which in 2016 went for Hillary Clinton by five percentage points, even with a disgruntled Democratic electorate which might have preferred Bernie Sanders.
Trump’s national approval rating, reported today by Gallup at 36%, poses another problem for Buck, who early in Trump’s term was a major apologist for the president. His recent positions have been more nuanced. In a July 25 CNN appearance as reported by the Denver Post, Buck appeared to cautiously defend Jeff Sessions, and wish that Trump and Sessions would settle their differences privately.
Buck’s Denver Post op-ed, published on July 31, went farther, but it’s not clear in which direction. Buck declared the Republican Party to be dead, apparently because after six months in absolute power, the party has not implemented the entire Freedom Caucus agenda. Buck labeled his legislative colleagues a “B-team.” Can this be interpreted to mean that he has no plans to return to Congress in 2018? This op-ed can’t be making him popular on the Hill.
One Seat, Two Democrats
Uncharacteristically, the Democrats have gotten a running start on CD4 this election season. There are three declared candidates in the running: Karen McCormick of Longmont, Chase Kohne of Parker, and Larry Germanson of Firestone. As of the last FEC reporting period (June 30), McCormick has a solid lead in fundraising at $20,000 to Kohne’s $5000. Though no formal public polling exists yet, Kohne appears to lead in endorsements and name recognition, based on a rough count of social media and personal appearances. Germanson trails both.
Based on a number of State-level and Special-election races since the 2016 election, Democrats are experiencing an 11–13-point uplift over the Trump-Clinton split last year. Trump’s job approval is at an historic low, with many shoes waiting to drop. What happens to the CD4 race if Kohne or McCormick does not have to face down an incumbent in the person of Ken Buck?
One Seat, Two Republicans?
If Buck does not run for re-election in CD4, perhaps the most likely candidates for the seat are Republican State legislators Senator Jerry Sonnenberg and Representative Jon Becker. Both were instrumental in passing what is perhaps the most important bill this year in Colorado, Sustainability in Rural Colorado.
Sonnenberg, who was President Pro Tem of the Colorado Senate in 2017, drafted and sponsored the bill in order to prevent several hospitals in his district (contained within CD4) from failing. Refer to Weathervane №2 for details. Becker co-sponsored the bill in the House. Though the majority of votes in favor of the bill were cast by Democrats, Sonnenberg and Becker were instrumental in getting enough Republican support to pass the bill.
Both men won overwhelming majorities in their last election, with Sonnenberg commanding 87% of the vote in SD1 and Becker commanding 79% in HD65.
The question becomes whether either state legislator, lacking district-wide name recognition and entering the race late, could compete against the more colorful Kohne or McCormick, especially since the Democrats have such a head start in the race. Who finally sits down in the CD4 Representative’s chair may depend on how much Republican party identity is worth in CD4by November 2018.
Originally published in The Weathervane No 11 on August 4, 2017. [Subscribe]
