Will Harris Win Over Trump?
With five weeks to go, the race is tighter than ever, and nobody is sure what to make of the polls
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As we edge closer to November, the political landscape is charged with tension, uncertainty, and a sense of historical significance. The race between an old white guy with a criminal record vs. a black woman and former prosecutor is poised to be one of the closest and most competitive elections in recent U.S. history. Not to mention the most dramatic. Current polling indicates a tight contest nationally, with Harris holding a narrow lead, but the battleground states — where the election will ultimately be decided — remain a toss-up.
If the US election were a movie, which it certainly seems to resemble more and more, it would clearly be Oscar material. The drama never stops.
The Polling Picture
As of early October 2024, Harris leads Trump by a small margin of 4.2 percentage points nationally, holding 50% of the vote to Trump’s 45.8%. This national lead is significant, reflecting a growing trend where Harris has managed to solidify her position in the popular vote. However, as history has shown, the national vote is not where the real battle lies. The electoral college, particularly key battleground states, will determine the outcome.
