Leading Vs Lagging Indicators

Lagging indicators use past price data to provide entry and exit signals, while leading indicators provide traders with an indication of future price movements, while also using past price data. When faced with the dilemma of leading vs lagging indicators, which should traders choose? The answer to this question ultimately comes down to individual preference after understanding the advantages and limitations of each.

Lagging indictors

Lagging indicators are tools used by traders to analyse the market using an average of previous price action data. Lagging indicators, as the name implies, lag the market. This entails that traders can witness a move before the indicator confirms it — meaning that the trader could lose out on a number of pips at the start of the move. Many consider this as a necessary cost in order to confirm see if the move gathers momentum. Others view this as a lost opportunity as traders forgo getting into a trade at the very start of a move.

Leading indicators

A leading indicator is a technical indicator that uses past price data to forecast future price movements in the market. Leading indicators allow traders to anticipate future price movements and therefore, traders are able to enter trades potentially at the start of the move. The downside to leading indicators is that traders are anticipating a move before it actually happens and the market could move in the opposite direction. As a result, it isn’t uncommon to witness false breakouts, or, signs of a trend reversal that just land up being minor retracements.

SHOULD YOU USE LEADING OR LAGGING INDICATORS?

There are no perfect indicators. By their very nature, indicators will help traders discover likely outcomes as opposed to a sure thing. It is up to the trader to conduct thorough analysis, with the aim of stacking the odds in their favour.

To further illustrate this point, below is an example of leading vs lagging indicators in EUR/USD, where the leading indicator appears to provide a better signal. Keep in mind that this is purely for demonstration and that the lagging indicator is equally as important.

The market sold off aggressively before retracing to the significant 61.8% level. Using a simple moving average (21, 55, 200), it is clear to see that the faster blue line (21) has not crossed below the slower black (55) line and therefore, this lagging indicator has not yet provided a short signal.

However, upon further analysis traders would be able to see that the market failed to break and hold above the 200-day moving average. The 200 SMA is widely viewed as a great indicator of long-term trend and in this example, is acting as resistance. This supports the short bias for traders eying a bounce lower off the 61.8% level.

Traders looking for fast signals will tend to favor leading indicators but can also reduce the time period setting on lagging indicators to make them more responsive. This however, should always be implemented with a tight stop loss to in the event the market moves in the opposite direction.

Traders seeking a greater degree of confidence will tend to favor lagging indicators. These traders often trade over longer time frames looking to capitalize on continuing momentum after entering at a relatively delayed entry level, while implementing sound risk management.